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OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#121
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Customer A pays you $100 for goods that cost you $10. You invest $100-$10=$90 in customer B so that they'll pay you $90 for goods that cost you $9. Your reported revenue is now $100+$90=$190, but the only money that entered the system is the original $100.

Yes, but you’ve also incurred a $90 expense in purchasing the stock of Company B and that stock is on the balance sheet. In the actual shady version of this, Company B isn’t the hottest AI investment around, it’s a shell company created by your brother’s cousin that isn’t actually worth what you’re claiming on the balance sheet because it was only created for the round tripping shell game.

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#122

If Solar can't compete with natural gas economically, and subsidizing solar ends up de-incentivizing natural gas production by artificially lowering energy prices, what's the solution here?

Your question is weird. Solar does compete economically with methane already, and it's only going to improve even more.

If true, why aren't we mass scaling it all over the American West? We have railways running from West -> East, why not include power lines that can take power from energy farms in the West -> East? No major project in AZ, TX, or CA to give a city free power? etc

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#123
post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

What is this a bubble on? What does said bubble collapsing look like?

High end server gpus and AI roi expectations.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#124
post #4

For someone who doesn't know what a gigawat worth of Nvidia systems is, how many high-end H100 or whatever does this get you? My estimates along with some poor-grade GPT research leads me to think it could be nearly 10 million? That does seem insane.

You could think of it as "as much power as is used by NYC and Chicago combined". Which is fucking insanely wasteful.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#125
post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

I do not think the leveraging is going to end there. I suspect this will be used to justify/secure power generation investments, possibly even nuclear. Likely via one or more of the OpenAI/Altman adjacent power startups.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#126

In accounting terms, this is a shady business practice known as "round tripping" where you invest in a company for the sole purpose of them buying your product. It allows you to count your revenue multiple times.

Nvidia has consistently done this with Coreweave, Nscale, really most of its balance sheet investments are like this. On the one hand there's a vaguely cogent rationale that they're a strategic investor and it sort of makes sense as an hardware-for-equity swap; on the other, it's obviously goosing revenue numbers. This is a bigger issue when it's $100B than with previous investments. It's a good time to gently remind…

A relevant joke, paraphrased from the internet:

Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit.

The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit.

They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit.

Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing."

"That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased total revenue by $200!"

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#127
post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

What is this a bubble on? What does said bubble collapsing look like?

AI and tech companies

Collapse might look a little like the dot com bubble (stock crashes, bankruptcies, layoffs, etc)

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#128
> letter of intent for a landmark strategic partnership

> intends to invest up to xxx progressively

> preferred strategic compute and networking partner

> work together to co-optimize their roadmaps

> look forward to finalizing the details of this new phase of strategic partnership

I don't think I have seen so much meaningless corporate speak and so many outs in a public statement. "Yeah we'll maybe eventually do something cool".

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this a bubble on? What does said bubble collapsing look like?

High end server gpus and AI roi expectations.

I think everyone is underestimating the advancements in wafer tech and server compute over the last decade. Easy to miss when it’s out of sight out of mind but this isn’t going anywhere but up.

The current SOTA is going to pale in comparison to what we have 10 years from now.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#130
post #4

For someone who doesn't know what a gigawat worth of Nvidia systems is, how many high-end H100 or whatever does this get you? My estimates along with some poor-grade GPT research leads me to think it could be nearly 10 million? That does seem insane.

Account for around 3MW for every 1000 GPUs. So, 10GW is around 333 * 10 * 3MW so 3.33 * 1k * 1k GPUs, so around 3.33 M GPUs
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