U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

Post by DavidPeiffer » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:56 PM UTC

logifail wrote: post #79

georgeecollins wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The department of labor has a methodology that gives an early number that tends to get revised. They have been doing it the same way for a long time and it would not be controversial, except the business press with too little news to report makes a big deal about it with very little context. So its, like jobs increased 200k (not saying +/- 200k is the error bar). It would be good for everyone if people who are not pr…

> It would be good for everyone if people who are not professional economists paid less attention to this. It would be good for everyone if the BLS figures were trusted. Even "not professional economists" might lose trust in figures which are regularly revised downwards ... months after being published.

Post by post_break » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 3:56 PM UTC

VoidWarranty wrote: post #110

cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

Post by franktankbank » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 4:00 PM UTC

glenstein wrote: post #111

franktankbank wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incentivize our basic necessities and come down hard on fraud. If a bridge needs to be rebuilt pay to have it done. If shipping infrastructure needs to be modernized pay to have it done. If we need more mining get it done. Get it done and get it done fast. If bids are won but they go and fuck all the money away send them to jail. This is how stuff worked before people became obsessed with metrics.

So just for one example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics started publishing jobs reports in 1915. But having monthly jobs reports on the cotton sector lead to increased fraud and stopped bridges from being built? What's the mechanism? People are distracted by the amount of cotton production, which is the perfect time to falsify an earnings report?

Post by tonyedgecombe » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 4:02 PM UTC

RC_ITR wrote: post #50

I think it's interesting that everyone's immediate reaction now-a-days is to assume incompetence or maliciousness, rather than curiosity at the root cause (very telling this attitude has even permeated a forum for supposed 'hackers'). A high-level is that 80% of the economy is very easy to track b/c it's not very volatile (teachers, for example). What we have seen is a huge surge in unpredictability in the most volat…

Post by orwin » Tue, Sep 09, 2025, 4:03 PM UTC

jeffbee wrote: post #117

bananalychee wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not without precedent, but the fact that initial job numbers have been consistently inflated over the last 3 years and that the magnitude of the downwards revisions is on par with 2008-2009 for two years in a row (and growing) is concerning.

The need of downward revisions is 100% due to falling and selective response rate to the early survey.