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We're Joining OpenAI

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Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#121

Post by gloosx »

baq wrote: post #119
gloosx wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Expensive part is providing the services at loss to get the biggest part of the market, which is the current state of affairs. At some point the market leader will emerge and it will price things according to the actual cost of running this thing + markup, and ALL efforts would be going into squeezing as much profit as possible from the leading position. At the same time usability and quality would not be priority an…

I'm just saying what Anthropic is saying: individual models are printing money. The problem is all the capital needed to get the next model before the previous ones are obsolete; investors capitalize the business because the future models are expected to print even more money, at least a few months ago. It's increasingly obvious that the new models won't print as much money as expected to justify the expenses, but if…

>if they all stopped training today they'd be swimming in cash in a couple years.

If they stopped training, then the data cutoff date is one year farther each year? How do you make money from model which is stale on data and doesn't include any recent stuff?

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#122

Post by lithocarpus »

hpdigidrifter wrote: post #113
imiric wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If folks corrupt the integrity of LLM responses, as it were, they’ll destroy the value proposition. Highly unlikely. Google's SERP is an ad-infested abomination that sometimes shows useful results, and yet people still use Google Search. The same will happen with LLMs, except in far more subtle and insidious ways. Instead of showing you ads directly, they will be naturally interwoven in conversations, suggestions,…

>yet people still use Google Search Google search is widely acknowledged as drastically drying up in the last year or so, that's despite more worldwide internet usage.

Many people still use google search probably because the LLM response is at the top.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#123

Post by rat9988 »

simianwords wrote: post #102
kridsdale3 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Au contraire, based on their recent hires, they're just beginning their Facebook phase. Expect to see a lot of ads 2 years from now, and expect to see a LOT of money being made by the company a year after that. If they can maintain runway until then.

I predict this won’t be the case. The switching cost to a non Ad LLM is too low for me to be bothered with an ad based LLM. OpenAI must justify ads when its competitors are not sending ads. Why would they? OpenAI models must be so good that it should be worth dealing with ads compared to say Claude or DeepSeek.

> The switching cost to a non Ad LLM is too low for me to be bothered with an ad based LLM.

Provided one with sufficient quality exists.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#124

Post by stevage »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #48
bobbiechen wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote about this idea here: https://digitalseams.com/blog/the-ai-lifestyle-subsidy-is-go... Quick summary, I believe consumer AI experiences will feature ads because the profit opportunity is too large and company valuations depend on it. The hiring of Fidji Simo (ads at Facebook) at OpenAI + and just this week, Vijaye Raji/Statsig also point that way.

We’re in a golden period where AI results are ad-free. One thing I’ve been doing is querying and storing results. For example, “what are the best books on X topic” for every topic I can possibly think that I may want to read about in the future. I’ve found the results to be amazing if you give a sufficiently detailed prompt. I have enough reading to see me through to exit.

Would you consider sharing these somewhere?

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#126

Post by saagarjha »

elpakal wrote: post #43
mynegation wrote: post #37

I totally do not understand why Apple did not buy them. It’s not that they have anything like that already.

Something mentioned in WWDC stuck out to me (think it was Craig) about current state of LLMs not living up to their high standard of quality. Because they absolutely could (and kind of are, with the foundation models stuff) build their own. Letting Claude or OpenAI handle the Xcode changes via their integration in the next Xcode makes more sense in that context.

The high standard of quality that is Xcode?

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#127

Post by JumpCrisscross »

gloosx wrote: post #111
baq wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Individual models are probably profitable because why not. Not staying behind is the expensive part.

Expensive part is providing the services at loss to get the biggest part of the market, which is the current state of affairs. At some point the market leader will emerge and it will price things according to the actual cost of running this thing + markup, and ALL efforts would be going into squeezing as much profit as possible from the leading position. At the same time usability and quality would not be priority an…

> providing the services at loss to get the biggest part of the market

Would note that market share confers revenue, users and data. The last is uniquley valuable for LLM builders.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#128

Post by DrScientist »

kridsdale3 wrote: post #15
CyberMacGyver wrote: post #11

At this rate it’s better to start a company and get aquihired vs applying and getting hired. Seems like OpenAI speed ran through the Facebook phase and are out of ideas

Au contraire, based on their recent hires, they're just beginning their Facebook phase. Expect to see a lot of ads 2 years from now, and expect to see a LOT of money being made by the company a year after that. If they can maintain runway until then.

I do wonder whether we will switch back to ads or there is/will be a big switch to the subscription type model.

Would you trust output from OpenAI which is sponsered? I mean it's bad enough now in the ad space where they are increasingly trying to make the ads look more like content - imagine that in woven into your ChatGPT output?

The younger generation are quite used to subscription models - netflix, spotify, various gaming platforms etc. Perhaps access just becomes part of your internet access bundle.

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#129

Post by simianwords »

rat9988 wrote: post #123
simianwords wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I predict this won’t be the case. The switching cost to a non Ad LLM is too low for me to be bothered with an ad based LLM. OpenAI must justify ads when its competitors are not sending ads. Why would they? OpenAI models must be so good that it should be worth dealing with ads compared to say Claude or DeepSeek.

> The switching cost to a non Ad LLM is too low for me to be bothered with an ad based LLM. Provided one with sufficient quality exists.

Yes so what amount of quality are you willing to give up so that you won't be bombarded with ads?

Or, what extra money would you pay OpenAI to get a non ad powered LLM model?

Re: We're Joining OpenAI

#130

Post by tempodox »

gloosx wrote: post #110
mrklol wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t have to be profitable atm

For sure. Needs to drain as much money as possible from Microsoft first. I approve!

Be careful what you wish for if you use anything from MS. Further enshittification will be mercyless.
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