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Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

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Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#121

Post by BurningFrog »

lossolo wrote: post #104
BurningFrog wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You never know beforehand. Before they existed, few would have believed the disappearing jobs would be replaced by web designers, uber drivers, youtubers, drone pilots etc.

We know humans have needs, and most jobs exist to meet them. The agricultural revolution mainly met one need — cheaper food with less labor. A superintelligent AI could meet all human needs. The only remaining jobs might be those where people prefer a human touch like therapy or sex work, but such roles would be rare. Past revolutions either made work more efficient or created new ways for humans to serve each other.…

How does a superintelligent AI build cars of grow crops?

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#122

Post by BurningFrog »

tcfhgj wrote: post #99
BurningFrog wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strictly speaking, you can't be sure the sun will rise tomorrow, and you should be even less sure about this. But the sensible thing is to expect strong trends to continue.

the sun "rising" tomorrow is backed by scientific knowledge about the solar system - more jobs by AI - so far - not more than wishful thinking, like many other AI promises (such as saving is from climate change).

The science of Economics has good, empirically based explanations for how new jobs get created when technology makes older jobs unnecessary.

And yes, it is a real science!

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#123

Post by lossolo »

BurningFrog wrote: post #121
lossolo wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know humans have needs, and most jobs exist to meet them. The agricultural revolution mainly met one need — cheaper food with less labor. A superintelligent AI could meet all human needs. The only remaining jobs might be those where people prefer a human touch like therapy or sex work, but such roles would be rare. Past revolutions either made work more efficient or created new ways for humans to serve each other.…

How does a superintelligent AI build cars of grow crops?

Using (or controlling) machines, that it will design? Then humans only need to bootstrap the first factory of humanoid like robots, and after that, humans are no longer needed.

Even with current technology, there are already almost fully automated POCs of farms and so called “dark" factories and we are talking about superintelligence, not LLMs.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#124

Post by tcfhgj »

BurningFrog wrote: post #122
tcfhgj wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the sun "rising" tomorrow is backed by scientific knowledge about the solar system - more jobs by AI - so far - not more than wishful thinking, like many other AI promises (such as saving is from climate change).

The science of Economics has good, empirically based explanations for how new jobs get created when technology makes older jobs unnecessary. And yes, it is a real science!

just explanations, i.e. with hindsight? astrology can do this as well ;)

what about rules/laws which allow predictions?

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#125

Post by shivasaxena »

xg15 wrote: post #84
bootsmann wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics It's really not, you cannot cause a recession by increasing productivity, money doesn't disappear.

That's at least more of an argument than "it never happened before so it cannot happen in the future". Money cannot disappear, but circulation can be confined to ever-smaller segments of the economy. Let's assume a world in which AI is good enough to do 90% if all white-collar jobs and companies have replaced positions with AI accordingly. Then the amount of money that entered the wider economy through salaries will…

> Some would probably get into blue-collar work, others will try their hand starting a business (that will also compete with AI), but all of them?

Yes, that's exactly what will happen and you can even now see examples of unemployed software engineer building successful one-man gigs with the help of AI(not competing).

I think the concept of stable long term jobs as we knew is gone. Which might not be a bad thing.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#128

Post by Lu2025 »

nerevarthelame wrote: post #77

The full interview this comes from is off the rails. Gawdat says we'll have AGI by 2026 at the absolute latest, and that we will have artificial super intelligence in the immediate future. He guarantees that after destroying jobs, within 15 years we will be in a "utopia" controlled by AI. It's an absurd level of confidence for an extremely bold prediction. In his last interview from this series in 2023, Gawdat said t…

Jeebezus. He's either delusional or a scammer. Can't tell atm

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#129

Post by Lu2025 »

drdec wrote: post #36

Think about what happened when we got advances in agriculture. We have gone from something like 90% of people employed growing food to something in the single digits (I'm too lazy at the moment to get exact figures, but this is close enough for my point). Did all those advances in agriculture create jobs? I would say yes and no. For the specific industry the advances happened in? No, definitely not. There are way few…

>> Without those agriculture advances

Funny thing is, it wasn't agricultural advances, at least initially. It was chemistry and mechanics. Haber-Bosch process of ammonia synthesis created cheap fertilizer, mechanization dramatically increased productivity. New plant varieties with higher yields came later.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#130

Post by Lu2025 »

kingstnap wrote: post #27
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

There are a profound number of people who now seem to just spend all day giving interviews and yapping about their AI takes. Geoffrey Hinton seems to be in the headlines constantly going "godfather of AI" and giving some random obtuse warning or call for action. Eric Schmidt also spends a lot of time yapping. And of course people like Gary Marcus. Simon Willison also does a lot of writing but at least his blog is act…

These are sales speeches. They are over hyping it. AI has its niche but they are trying to plug it everywhere. Maybe they have a point. Maybe hooking people up on software tools so they are incompetent without will pay off.
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