121–130 of 134 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Generally true but nvda and pltr are normie stocks and can account for these returns from this year.
But then it's not a Boglehead lol
I understand where you’re coming from, but there isn’t a incongruity. Individual stock investments are a relatively small part of my overall portfolio.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
But then it's not a Boglehead lol
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Passively_managing_individua... I understand where you’re coming from, but there isn’t a incongruity. Individual stock investments are a relatively small part of my overall portfolio.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The market is adaptive, particularly with options, and will adapt to bust your approach in a heartbeat. It will in general adapt to bust a lot more sophisticated approaches. This is not physics. The underlying assumptions change.
In general, yes - no edge is forever. But that doesn't mean trading is a coin flip where no edge can exist. The market is adaptive because humans are adaptive - but, for example, their machine offspring are often slightly less adaptive and create opportunities for persistent returns. Even more so for most retail where your position size isn't creating slippage.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is the best strategy for someone who does not do this full-time (and for many people who do!). That is the point. A trader with experience, working in a firm with deep pockets and terabytes of historical data and FPGAs that can execute his/her strategy and a legal team and an engineering team... can outperform you yes x)
Well I certainly can't argue with something that is italicized. But I should say that any engineer familiar with the AI tech stack could have bought NVDA at any point in the last five years knowing how big their moat is. That same engineer could have sold monthly covered calls, taking 5 minutes out of every month to do so. And before you say it, no, they wouldn't be full port NVDA.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well I certainly can't argue with something that is italicized. But I should say that any engineer familiar with the AI tech stack could have bought NVDA at any point in the last five years knowing how big their moat is. That same engineer could have sold monthly covered calls, taking 5 minutes out of every month to do so. And before you say it, no, they wouldn't be full port NVDA.
Wouldn't selling covered calls on Nvidia have been like selling a goose that lays golden eggs?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you at least provide specificity to match your derision?
It's trivial to say in hindsight "if you had just bought XYZ in January you would have 80% gains by now!". Yet this is pure confirmation bias. Moreover, surveys routinely show that amateur day traders do not consistently beat a global stock index in a statistically significant manner. Extrapolating from past data with N=1 to demonstrate that "any tech person can outperform the index" shows a crass lack of mathematica…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
In general, yes - no edge is forever. But that doesn't mean trading is a coin flip where no edge can exist. The market is adaptive because humans are adaptive - but, for example, their machine offspring are often slightly less adaptive and create opportunities for persistent returns. Even more so for most retail where your position size isn't creating slippage.
I can try a dynamic intermediate stop-loss point, with the intended goal that is not too early where it triggers often, and not too late where the loss mounts geometrically. This is intended to greatly limit the max loss per trade, which is good, but it still has significant risk of being triggered unnecessarily. I am highly skeptical that this will work, because I even see in the chart that it doesn't, but it's wort…
I used to trade options and had about 99.5% success on all my trades The problem is the 0.5% of the time, it erases all the gains made on the successful ones. I'm convinced without information edge or some capital sunk cost edge (for HFT) you are literally just flipping coins when it comes to trading. What's dangerous is fixation on strategies that form after a period of success. All in all, I think just buying stock…
Interesting choice to be using CPython. Very impressed with the completeness, and in particular the Risk Engine. Not having delved in too deeply yet, it does have the basics, but the markets are very highly regulated, and automated trading is always in the microscope. At Goldman, my team's whole job was to make sure the automated trading desks have all the checks implemented. It's a little spoilsport, but anyone seri…
I know FINRA has regulations but the CFTC proposed regulations were shelved. Are little guys who are not FINRA members encumbered by regulations here too?
For the US, the SEC and FINRA place the onus on the broker-dealer to supervise all trading activity, including automated trading by retail clients. This includes having risk controls to prevent erroneous or manipulative orders. An individual is not typically required to register their specific algorithm with the SEC, but they are subject to all overarching rules against market manipulation and fraud.
So, end of day, you'll still have to do a ton of back and forth with your broker, to make sure their controls cover your implementation. Not really feasible for the retail trader from the looks of it, regardless of location. But some smaller firms can perhaps utilise it.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This doesn't make sense. If you had a 99.5% success rate, you could simply use a fixed $ stop and clean up. I agree you need an information edge, but the difficulty of finding one inversely correlates with your scale. Buying and holding is the best strategy for almost everybody - but that is orthogonal to whether trading is a "coin flip" vs mining an edge.
It does make sense. A small fixed stop loss is just asking to be triggered. A large fixed stop loss will result in a zero-gain zero-loss scenario over many trades. More generally, there is no optimal amount of stop loss. It ultimately gets auto-stopped out at 3:30 pm, although by then it could have gone nearly to zero anyway. Either the strategy works or it doesn't, and with Trump manipulating the market on random da…