When will the bubble pop?
That's a lot of confidence that this is a bubble rather than an existential race. Maybe you're making bank betting that view?
A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
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Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#122It's similar to how, near the end of a Monopoly game, a player might indiscriminately hand over a stash of $100 bills to acquire Mediterranean Avenue, even though the property is mortgaged.
Which analogy(s) are you going for? The world is about to end so money is essentially worthless? The players with all the money are going to move on to something else soon? The game ceased to be fun for anyone so they all want to find other things to do? I assume you are going for “there are no more useful resources to acquire so those with all the resources overpay just to feel like they own those last few they don’…
Capitalism is about to break. The revolution is coming.
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#123When will the bubble pop?
2027
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which analogy(s) are you going for? The world is about to end so money is essentially worthless? The players with all the money are going to move on to something else soon? The game ceased to be fun for anyone so they all want to find other things to do? I assume you are going for “there are no more useful resources to acquire so those with all the resources overpay just to feel like they own those last few they don’…
Capitalism is about to break. The revolution is coming.
[dead]
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#125Ok people, is this for real like are these detached IC roles or are these articles talking about executive rolles filled by a.i. researchers?
Source: I know people who have both accepted and declined 100M+ packages They are IC roles for the most part
they are executive roles in the sense that you are required to profitably allocate a scarce perishable resource (gpu time) way more expensive than any regular engineer’s time.
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#126Wonder what their contracts look like. Are these people gonna be grinding their ass off at the Meta offices working crazy hours? Does Zucc have a strong vision, leadership, and management skills to actually push and enable these people to achieve maximum success? And if so, what does that form of success look like? So far the vision that Zucc has outlined has been rather underwhelming, but maybe the vision which he shares with insiders is different from his public persona.
I can't help but think that the structure of this kinda hints at there being a bit of a scam-y element, where a bunch of smart people are trying to pump some rich people out of as much money as possible, with questionable chances at making it back. Imagine that the people on The List had all the keys needed to build AGI already if they put their knowledge together, what action do you think they would take?
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#127Good for those involved being offered such packages, but it really does raise the question of what exactly those offering them are so afraid of. For example, Meta seem to be spending so much so they don't later have to fight a war against an external Facebook-as-chatbot style competitor, but it's hard to see how such a thing could emerge from the current social media landscape.
They just want the best, and they’re afraid of having second rates, B-players, etc., causing a bozo explosion. That seems like all the motivation that’s needed. Why why would they need fears about a quasi-facebook chatbot?
Just like in football, buying all the best players pretty much guarantees failure as egos and personal styles clash and take precedence over team achievement. The only reasons one would do that are fear, vanity, and stupidity, and those have to be more important than getting value for the extraordinary amounts of money invested.
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#128When will the bubble pop?
Perhaps when society balances benefits of AI against energy and environmental costs? I have worked through two ‘AI winters’ when funding dried up. This might happen again.
I think a possible scenario is that we see huge open source advances in training and inference efficiency that ends up making some of the mega-investments in AI infrastructure look silly.
What will probably ‘save’ the mega-spending is (unfortunately!) the application of AI to the Forever Wars for profit.
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we’d need a major war or a pandemic of sorts because we have become pretty good at maintaining such bubble inflated. Whenever and however it comes, it’s going to be a bloodbath because we haven’t had a proper burst since 2008. I don’t count 2020.
Eventually people might consider that just maybe... it's not a bubble...
2000 was a bubble, and yet the internet continued to eat the world after it popped. I expect we'll see something similar
Re: A.I. researchers are negotiating $250M pay packages
#130Good for those involved being offered such packages, but it really does raise the question of what exactly those offering them are so afraid of. For example, Meta seem to be spending so much so they don't later have to fight a war against an external Facebook-as-chatbot style competitor, but it's hard to see how such a thing could emerge from the current social media landscape.
They just want the best, and they’re afraid of having second rates, B-players, etc., causing a bozo explosion. That seems like all the motivation that’s needed. Why why would they need fears about a quasi-facebook chatbot?
Coming from Meta, I have to wonder if the reason for this isn't more down to Zuck's ego and history. He seems to have somewhat lost interest in FaceBook, and was previously all-in on the Metaverse as the next big thing, which has failed to take off as a concept, and now wants to go all-in on "super-intelligence" (seems to lack ambition - why not "super-duper extra special intelligence"?) with his new vision being smart glasses as the universal AI interface. He can't seem to get past the notion that people want to wear tech on their head and live in augmented reality.
Anyhow, with the Metaverse as a flop, and apparently having self-assessed Meta's current LLM efforts as unsatisfactory, it seems Zuck may want to rescue his reputation by throwing money at it to try to make his next big gamble a winner. It seems a bit irrational given that other companies, and countries, have built SOTA LLMs without needing to throw NBA/NFL/rockstar money around.