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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#121

Post by [deleted] »

saulpw wrote: post #88
1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote: post #83

The Atlantic suggests this results from the release of those convicted during a decades long crime wave, which apprently took place when many of us grew up. Perhaps it also tracks with a progressive decline in law enforcement. Whether that is because crime waves not longer exist or whether it is some other reason is a question for the reader. A substanbtial amount of crime is now done via internet. Few are ever convi…

Marijuana possession was the number one crime and is now legal in a majority of states. This seems like the high-order bit.

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#122

Post by const_cast »

ivape wrote: post #111
TrainedMonkey wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like all complex phenomena 1960s crime wave probably has many causes, but lead poisoning stands out - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis

Drugs. Don’t overthink things.

To dig deeper, not only are young people doing less drugs (good), but we've also stopped being so unbelievably fucking crazy with our policing of drugs. In many places marijuana is basically decriminalized, although not outright legal. Not too long ago even just carrying around marijuana could land you decades in prison, depending on how black you were.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#123

Post by jdminhbg »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #107
PartiallyTyped wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too?

> Can we blame lead for the US’ electoral landscape too? More of a pet theory, but voters born between 1950 and 1980, boomers and Gen X, have had a well-documented set of policy preferences.

Boomers were essentially statistically indistinguishable from Millennials in the 2024 presidential election: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-generations-voted-trump-...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#124

Post by janalsncm »

y-curious wrote: post #49
holmesworcester wrote: post #30

How much of this is due to smartphones? The years seem to line up. 2014 seemed like the big year where smartphone ubiquity changed US teen culture. Less boredom, dumb adventure, drinking, etc. (For better or worse but in this case better.)

Devils advocate: smartphones have made antisocial tiktok trends, "fast money" hacks and paint an unrealistic portrait of success. Before, only rappers could be young and rich and flashy. Now, seemingly regular teens are millionaires and this is constantly fed into young people's feeds.

That might be true but it’s another topic.

If your point is that the benefits of crime reduction due to smartphones are outweighed by harms to mental health, then I think most people would disagree.

But this is also probably painting far too rosy a picture of what Meta is doing.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#125

Post by pnw »

malcolmgreaves wrote: post #102
Izikiel43 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. biologically, and for pregnancy, yes you are.

It's actually the age of the egg that matters most, not the age of the mother during pregnancy.

Paternal age is also a contributor. Children with fathers over 40 see an increase in potential diseases, a shorter lifespan and higher infant mortality, likely due to DNA mutations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paternal_age_effect

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#126

Post by strict9 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

No it's not. Not entirely anyway.

One thing I've learned in my decades on this planet is that just about never is one explanation for a human condition mostly correct. Lead is a convenient technical explanation that underestimates the impact of upbringing and community.

It doesn't explain a lot of factors of juvenile delinquency that existed for generations before lead service lines or leaded gasoline.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#127

Post by ericmcer »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

It is insane to just confidently assert that the only factor in the decrease in crime is Lead. Treating an insanely nuanced issue as an absolute doesn't make your argument more compelling, it is actually kind of baffling.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#128

Post by mymythisisthis »

throwaway_2121 wrote: post #116
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's lead. Lead concentration in America "rapidly increased in the 1950s and then declined in the 1980s" [1]. There is a non-linear discontinuity among kids born in the mid 80s, with linear improvements through to those born in the late 2000s [2]. Arrest rates for violent crimes are highest from 15 to 29 years old (particularly 17 to 23-year olds) [3]. They're particularly low for adults after 50 years old. We're aro…

Lack of boredom is also a factor. Social media and modern games are keeping them occupied.

People also have fewer possessions worth stealing and trying to hock? It's not like TVs and radios cost that much anymore. People wear less jewelry. Though this is not a significant factor, it might be worth putting on the list still.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#129

Post by energywut »

WalterBright wrote: post #51
outside1234 wrote: post #5

Crime is also way down over the last 20 years: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-...

At least in Seattle, crime is "way down" because many businesses have stopped reporting it, because the police don't respond to less serious crimes anymore. A shopkeeper friend of mine closed his business in Seattle after multiple lootings of his place and the police never showing up. He relocated to a bedroom community. Crime statistics are not necessarily accurate, and politicians have an interest in minimizing tho…

You have any data to support that? I've lived in Seattle for 40 years, and crime here is way less of a concern now than it ever has been. Especially violent crime.

My experience also seems to match statistics. So, it would seem that your friend's experience might be the outlier -- I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying their experience doesn't match the data and there's at least one anecdote (mine) that runs counter to their anecdote. Seems like a good opportunity to try and find data that supports your hypothesis?

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