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Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

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Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#121

Post by TeMPOraL »

yusina wrote: post #114
TeMPOraL wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If these tools are really as revolutionary as they claim they are, then they should be able to build better versions of themselves, and we should be seeing exponential improvements of their capabilities. Recursive self-improvement is literally the endgame scenario - hard takeoff, singularity, the works. Are you really saying you're dissatisfied with the progress of those tools because they didn't manage to end the…

Moving goal posts? This was a response to the claim that AIs are the new code.

Not really. GP claims they expect to see exponential improvements to be impressed - seemingly without realizing how such exponent will look like once it's happening and starts to look obviously exponential.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#122

Post by iLoveOncall »

imiric wrote: post #91
bcrosby95 wrote: post #65

I might be wrong, but it seems like some people are misinterpreting what is being said here. Software 3.0 isn't about using AI to write code. It's about using AI instead of code. So not Human -> AI -> Create Code -> Compile Code -> Code Runs -> The Magic Happens. Instead, it's Human -> AI -> The Magic Happens.

So... Who builds the AI? This is why I think the AI industry is mostly smoke and mirrors. If these tools are really as revolutionary as they claim they are, then they should be able to build better versions of themselves, and we should be seeing exponential improvements of their capabilities. Yet in the last year or so we've seen marginal improvements based mainly on increasing the scale and quality of the data they'…

> If these tools are really as revolutionary as they claim they are, then they should be able to build better versions of themselves, and we should be seeing exponential improvements of their capabilities. Yet in the last year or so we've seen marginal improvements based mainly on increasing the scale and quality of the data they're trained on, and the scale of deployments, with some clever engineering work thrown in.

Yes and we've actually been able to witness in public the dubious contributions that Copilot has made on public Microsoft repositories.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#123

Post by fellatio »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #119
fellatio wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. Just that 1. Is better than people. 2. Isn't better than people. Pick one! If the former then yes singularity. The only hope is it's "good will" (wouldn't bet on that) or turning off switches. If the latter you still need more workers (programmers or whatever they'll be called) due to increased demand for compute solutions.

> Nope. Just that 1. Is better than people. 2. Isn't better than people. Pick one! That's too coarse of a choice. It's better than people at increasingly large number of distinct tasks. But it's not good enough to recursively self-improve just yet - though it is doing it indirectly: it's useful enough to aid researchers and businesses in creating next generation of models. So in a way, the recursion and resulting exp…

Thanks. Your nuanced version is better. In that version I can still ignore most of LinkedIn and Twitter and assume there will still be a need for people. Not just at OMGAD (OpenAI...) but at thousands of companies.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#124

Post by obiefernandez »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #65

I might be wrong, but it seems like some people are misinterpreting what is being said here. Software 3.0 isn't about using AI to write code. It's about using AI instead of code. So not Human -> AI -> Create Code -> Compile Code -> Code Runs -> The Magic Happens. Instead, it's Human -> AI -> The Magic Happens.

Self plug: I wrote a whole bestselling book on this exact topic

https://leanpub.com/patterns-of-application-development-usin...

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#125

Post by [deleted] »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #65

I might be wrong, but it seems like some people are misinterpreting what is being said here. Software 3.0 isn't about using AI to write code. It's about using AI instead of code. So not Human -> AI -> Create Code -> Compile Code -> Code Runs -> The Magic Happens. Instead, it's Human -> AI -> The Magic Happens.

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#126

Post by koakuma-chan »

amarait wrote: post #62
scottyah wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time you talk about the future, it gets altered.

Hard determinists would disagree

Even if universe is not deterministic, what he said still does not make sense because him talking about future is part of destiny.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#127

Post by TeMPOraL »

no_wizard wrote: post #107
TeMPOraL wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If these tools are really as revolutionary as they claim they are, then they should be able to build better versions of themselves, and we should be seeing exponential improvements of their capabilities. Recursive self-improvement is literally the endgame scenario - hard takeoff, singularity, the works. Are you really saying you're dissatisfied with the progress of those tools because they didn't manage to end the…

I don’t believe the technology horizon in the next 5 years is sufficiently developed for recursive self improvement to work so well it requires no human intervention, by which I mean it will hit a limit and the technology will still be a tool not a sentient (near sentient?) thing. I think there will be a wall hit eventually with this, much like there was with visual recognition in the mid 2010s[0]. It will continue t…

> I don’t believe the technology horizon in the next 5 years is sufficiently developed for recursive self improvement to work so well it requires no human intervention

I'm personally 50/50 on this prediction at this point. It doesn't feel like we have enough ingredients for end-to-end recursive self-improvement in the next 5 years, but the overall pace is such that I'm hesitant to say it's not likely either.

Still, my reply was to the person who seemed to say they won't be impressed until they see AIs "able to build better versions of themselves" and "exponential improvements of their capabilities" - to this I'm saying, if/when it happens, it'll be the last thing that they'll ever be impressed with.

> remember when everyone was making demos and apps that would identify objects and such, and all the facial augmentation stuff? My general understanding is that the tech is now in the incremental improvement stage.

I thought that this got a) boring, and b) all those advancements got completely blown away by multimodal LLMs and other related models.

My perspective is that we had a breakthrough across the board in this a couple years ago, after the stuff you mentioned happened, and that isn't showing signs of slowing down.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#129

Post by layer8 »

zie1ony wrote: post #88
bcrosby95 wrote: post #65

I might be wrong, but it seems like some people are misinterpreting what is being said here. Software 3.0 isn't about using AI to write code. It's about using AI instead of code. So not Human -> AI -> Create Code -> Compile Code -> Code Runs -> The Magic Happens. Instead, it's Human -> AI -> The Magic Happens.

This is great idea, until you have to build something.

Until you have to reliably automate something, I would say.

Re: Andrej Karpathy's talk on the future of the industry

#130

Post by bluefirebrand »

bgwalter wrote: post #93
Frummy wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally not a supervillain "Q: What does your name (badmephisto) mean? A: I've had this name for a really long time. I used to be a big fan of Diablo2, so when I had to create my email address username on hotmail, i decided to use Mephisto as my username. But of course Mephisto was already taken, so I tried Mephisto1, Mephisto2, all the way up to about 9, and all was taken. So then I thought... "hmmm, what kind of ch…

> Since Mephisto (the brother of Diablo) Unbelievable. Perhaps some techies should read Goethe's Faust instead of Lord of the Rings.

He's talking about videogame characters

If you want to scoff at anyone, scoff at 1990s Blizzard Entertainment for using those names in that way

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