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A Postmortem of a Startup

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Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#121

Post by amy214 »

zihotki wrote: post #18
Destiner wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're describing NIMBY, which is more of a US/SF thing (but also is a case in Europe to some extent).

NIMBY is an universal human concept, it's present everywhere - Europe, Asia, South America. It may come in different flavours but it's everywhere. People don't welcome changes to the surrounding environment if it doesn't benefit them more or less directly.

It's one of those things like littering or tragedy of the commons - one instance, by itself, is not a big deal so it's understandable why people might not think much of NIMBYing. But en masse these behaviors are ruinous

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#122

Post by mytailorisrich »

n4r9 wrote: post #117
spacebanana7 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data actually implies UK citizens have been consistently moving out of London. The absolute white British population in 1971 was 6,500,000 but was only 3,239,281 in 2021 [1]. Of course not all UK citizens are white British, and the negative fertility rate would've applied downward pressure, and it's conceivable that white Londoners emigrated to Australia etc at a higher rate than other parts of the UK. But none o…

Yes, London house prices would likely be lower. But we'd also be poorer on average, since immigrants are a net benefit to the economy. Moreover the combination of a starkly aging population with higher costs of labour would cause a real strain on the public purse, like Japan is seeing. On balance I much prefer the current situation. Though I guess I would say that, having an immigrant parent.

Net benefit to the economy does not mean net benefit to everyone individually.

That's one reason that made people at the lower end of the payscale vote for Brexit: Immigration keeps wages low.

We're also seeing it since Covid: immigration keeps the GDP (barely) growing while the GDP per capita is decreasing.

The cost is wholesale destruction of local culture, too. London is a city in England but no longer really an English city, for example.

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#123

Post by hermitShell »

shalmanese wrote: post #81

When I coach startup founders, I walk them through a very simple 4 step process when we meet: 1. What have you learnt since we last met and how has that altered your priors? 2. What do you now believe is the most important problem you should be solving? 3. What's currently blocking you from solving that problem? 4. How do we overcome those blocks? Crucial to this process is that Q1 is not what have you done , it's wh…

Do you steer them away from ‘bad ideas’? Trying to recall pg’s essay, which was admitted sw focused, but the core idea is both worthless on the open market and essential to the ultimate success. Is this coaching ‘don’t become a statistic’ or ‘better luck next time’

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#124

Post by fakedang »

n4r9 wrote: post #117
spacebanana7 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data actually implies UK citizens have been consistently moving out of London. The absolute white British population in 1971 was 6,500,000 but was only 3,239,281 in 2021 [1]. Of course not all UK citizens are white British, and the negative fertility rate would've applied downward pressure, and it's conceivable that white Londoners emigrated to Australia etc at a higher rate than other parts of the UK. But none o…

Yes, London house prices would likely be lower. But we'd also be poorer on average, since immigrants are a net benefit to the economy. Moreover the combination of a starkly aging population with higher costs of labour would cause a real strain on the public purse, like Japan is seeing. On balance I much prefer the current situation. Though I guess I would say that, having an immigrant parent.

I mean, you're already poorer, given that immigration has depressed wages significantly. Post-Brexit, EU immigration was only replaced by non-EU immigration which has a higher tolerance for lower wages and poorer living conditions. Something that I got to see firsthand a couple of weeks back.

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#125

Post by shalmanese »

hermitShell wrote: post #123
shalmanese wrote: post #81

When I coach startup founders, I walk them through a very simple 4 step process when we meet: 1. What have you learnt since we last met and how has that altered your priors? 2. What do you now believe is the most important problem you should be solving? 3. What's currently blocking you from solving that problem? 4. How do we overcome those blocks? Crucial to this process is that Q1 is not what have you done , it's wh…

Do you steer them away from ‘bad ideas’? Trying to recall pg’s essay, which was admitted sw focused, but the core idea is both worthless on the open market and essential to the ultimate success. Is this coaching ‘don’t become a statistic’ or ‘better luck next time’

Whatever my private opinion of the idea, that they're pursuing it means they believe it. It's about getting whatever information fast enough to evaluate whether it truly is a bad idea or not.

Startups are contrarian, many of the most successful ones are the ones "experts" are convinced are bad. I think in terms of the retrospective, assume we're at the point where the startup has shut down and the post-mortem is done and the reason was because it was a bad idea, how do we get there as fast as possible so there's time to pivot.

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#126

Post by shalmanese »

monkeydust wrote: post #114
shalmanese wrote: post #81

When I coach startup founders, I walk them through a very simple 4 step process when we meet: 1. What have you learnt since we last met and how has that altered your priors? 2. What do you now believe is the most important problem you should be solving? 3. What's currently blocking you from solving that problem? 4. How do we overcome those blocks? Crucial to this process is that Q1 is not what have you done , it's wh…

This is good especially 1. bit of Bayesian thinking thrown in. I find a lot of founders ask for feedback, advice and just carry on doing what they were going to do anyway, perhaps convince themselves that the advice backs up their thinking when it doesn't. Not everyone of course but a lot, hence why I like your question.

I think the linked tweet from the article explains it better than I could:

> The more time I spend advising founders, the clearer it gets that 80% of my value is repeating "don't die, don't lie to yourself"

https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1805638715739619679

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#127

Post by n4r9 »

fakedang wrote: post #124
n4r9 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, London house prices would likely be lower. But we'd also be poorer on average, since immigrants are a net benefit to the economy. Moreover the combination of a starkly aging population with higher costs of labour would cause a real strain on the public purse, like Japan is seeing. On balance I much prefer the current situation. Though I guess I would say that, having an immigrant parent.

I mean, you're already poorer, given that immigration has depressed wages significantly. Post-Brexit, EU immigration was only replaced by non-EU immigration which has a higher tolerance for lower wages and poorer living conditions. Something that I got to see firsthand a couple of weeks back.

Immigration is thought to have a small negative impact on the wages of low skilled workers, but is probably financially beneficial for those further up the payscale.

> Post-Brexit, EU immigration was only replaced by non-EU immigration

Yes, in fact this was how Brexit was sold to many south Asian voters: your family will have an easier time moving to the UK.

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#129

Post by dickersnoodle »

zihotki wrote: post #18
Destiner wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're describing NIMBY, which is more of a US/SF thing (but also is a case in Europe to some extent).

NIMBY is an universal human concept, it's present everywhere - Europe, Asia, South America. It may come in different flavours but it's everywhere. People don't welcome changes to the surrounding environment if it doesn't benefit them more or less directly.

It isn't as simple as "doesn't benefit them more or less directly". There are often projects that benefit some people that will actively degrade life for everyone else.

Re: A Postmortem of a Startup

#130

Post by fakedang »

n4r9 wrote: post #127
fakedang wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, you're already poorer, given that immigration has depressed wages significantly. Post-Brexit, EU immigration was only replaced by non-EU immigration which has a higher tolerance for lower wages and poorer living conditions. Something that I got to see firsthand a couple of weeks back.

Immigration is thought to have a small negative impact on the wages of low skilled workers, but is probably financially beneficial for those further up the payscale. > Post-Brexit, EU immigration was only replaced by non-EU immigration Yes, in fact this was how Brexit was sold to many south Asian voters: your family will have an easier time moving to the UK.

> Immigration is thought to have a small negative impact on the wages of low skilled workers, but is probably financially beneficial for those further up the payscale.

And that's a good thing?

> Yes, in fact this was how Brexit was sold to many south Asian voters: your family will have an easier time moving to the UK.

Yes, and now the very fabric of most English cities has broken down in many parts.

Honestly don't see the UK (or the EU) pull itself out of this mess for a long time. Both embraced too much free immigration instead of embracing more automation and digitization.

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