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The Bitter Prediction

4zm.org

121–130 of 189 posts

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#121

I'm a little older now, over 60. I'm writing a spaceflight simulator for fun and (possible) profit. From game assets to coding, it seems like AI could help. But every time I try it out, I just end up feeling drained by the process of guiding it to good outcomes. It's like I have an assistant to work for me, who gets to have all the fun, but needs constant hand holding and guidance. It isn't fun at all, and for me, co…

I can relate to that.

Personally, right now I find it difficult to imagine saying "I made this" if I got an AI to generate all the code of a project. If I go to a bookstore, ask for some kind of book ("I want it to be with a hard cover, and talk about X, and be written in language Y, ..."), I don't think that at the end I will feel like I "made the book". I merely chose it, someone else made it (actually it's multiple jobs, between whoever wrote it and whoever actually printed and distributed it).

Now if I can describe a program to an AI and it results in a functioning program, can I say that I made it?

Of course it's more efficient to use knitting machines, but if I actually knit a piece of clothing, then I can say I made it. And that's what I like: I like to make things.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#122

I think AI is posing a challenge to people like the person in TFA because programming is their hobby and one that they’re good at. They aren’t used to knowing someone or something can do it better and knowing that now makes them wonder what the point is. I argue that amateur artists and musicians have dealt with this feeling of “someone can always do it better” for a very long time. You can have fun while knowing som…

> can make it better than you, faster, without as much struggle

Still need to prove that AI-generated code is "better", though.

"More profitable", in a world where software generally becomes worse (for the consumers) and more profitable (for the companies), sure.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#123
post #110
post #12

>Why bother playing when I knew there was an easier way to win? This is the exact same feeling I’m left with after a few days of using Claude Code. I don’t enjoy using the tool as much as I enjoy writing code. My experience has been the opposite. I've enjoyed working on hobby projects more than ever, because so many of the boring and often blocking aspects of programming are sped up. You get to focus more on higher l…

Everyone has different objective and subjective experiences, and I suspect some form of selection will promote those who more often feel excited and relieved by using AI than those who feel it more often a negative, like it challenges some core aspect of self. It might challenge us, and maybe those of us who feel challenged in that way need to rise to it, for there are always harder problems to solve If this new tool…

Without AI, I have been in a company where the general mentality was to "ship bad software but quickly". Without going into the debate of whether it was profitable in the long term or not (spoiler: it was not), my problem was the following:

I would try to build something "good" (not "perfect", just "good", like modular or future-proof or just not downright malpractice). But while I was doing this, others would build crap. They would do it so fast I couldn't keep up. So they would "solve" the problems much faster. Except that over the years, they just accumulated legacy and had to redo stuff over and over again (at some point you can't throw crap on top of crap, so you just rebuild from scratch and start with new crap, right?).

All that to say, I don't think that AIs will help with that. If anything, AIs will help more people behave like this and produce a lot of crap very quickly.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#124
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> generating value for customers through code. Generating value for the shareholders and/or investors , not the customers. I suspect this is the next bitter lesson for developers.

Yes, there you go. The users are just a propaganda proxy. The bitter lesson is that making profit is the only directive.

I find it odd that this was ever forgotten.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#125
post #113
post #90

> I've never been more productive Maybe it’s because my approach is much closer to a Product Engineer than a Software Engineer, but code output is rarely the reason why projects that I worked on are delayed. All my productivity issues can attributed to poor specifications, or problems that someone just threw over the wall. Every time I’m blocked is because someone didn’t make a decision on something, or no one has th…

> code output is rarely the reason why projects that I worked on are delayed This is very true at large enterprises. The pre-coding tasks [0] and the post-coding tasks [1] account for the majority of elapsed time that it takes for a feature to go from inception to production. The theory of constraints says that optimizations made to a step that's not the bottleneck will only make the actual bottleneck worse. AI is no…

Interesting point, does that mean AI with favor startup or startup like places? New tools often seem to favor less established and smaller places.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had enough tests to know that no other rule configuration worked. Heck, we had mathematical proof (and a small pile of other documentation too obsolete or cryptic to be of use), and still, the only thing that saved the project was noticing different stylistic conventions in different parts of the source, allowing the minor monolith to be broken down into "this is the core logic" and "these are the parts of a separ…

> generative AI systems essentially strip away all the "non-verbal" communication channels This is a human problem, not a technological one. You can still have all your aforementioned broken powerpoints etc and use AI to help write code you would’ve previously written simply by hand. If your processes are broken enough to create unmaintainable software, they will do so regardless of how code pops into existence. AI j…

The software wasn't unmaintainable. The PowerPoints etc were artefacts of a time when everyone involved understood some implicit context, within which the documentation was clear (not cryptic) and current (not obsolete). The only traces of that context we had, outside the documentation, were minor decisions made while writing the program: "what mindset makes this choice more likely?", "in what directions was this originally designed to extend?", etc.

Personally, I'm in the "you shouldn't leave vital context implicit" camp; but in this case, the software was originally written by "if I don't already have a doctorate, I need only request one" domain experts, and you would need an entire book to provide that context. We actually had a half-finished attempt – 12 names on the title page, a little over 200 pages long – and it helped, but chapter 3 was an introduction-for-people-who-already-know-the-topic (somehow more obscure than the context-free PowerPoints, though at least it helped us decode those), chapter 4 just had "TODO" on every chapter heading, and chapter 5 got almost to the bits we needed before trailing off with "TODO: this is hard to explain because" notes. (We're pretty sure they discussed this in more detail over email, but we didn't find it. Frankly, it's lucky we have the half-finished book at all.)

AI slop lacks this context. If the software had been written using genAI, there wouldn't have been the stylistic consistency to tell us we were on the right track. There wouldn't have been the conspicuous gap in naming, elevating "the current system didn't need that helper function, so they never wrote it" to a favoured hypothesis, allowing us to identify the only possible meaning of one of the words in chapter 3, and thereby learn why one of those rules we were investigating was chosen. (The helper function would've been meaningless at the time, although it does mean something in the context of a newer abstraction.) We wouldn't have been able to used a piece of debugging code from chapter 6 (modified to take advantage of the newer debug interface) to walk through the various data structures, guessing at which parts meant what using the abductive heuristic "we know it's designed deliberately, so any bits that appear redundant probably encode a meaning we don't yet understand".

I am very glad this system was written by humans. Sure, maybe the software would've been written faster (though I doubt it), but we wouldn't have been able to understand it after-the-fact. So we'd have had to throw it away, rediscover the basic principles, and then rewrite more-or-less the same software again – probably with errors. I would bet a large portion of my savings that that monstrosity is correct – that if it doesn't crash, it will produce the correct output – and I wouldn't be willing to bet that on anything we threw together as a replacement. (Yes, I want to rewrite the thing, but that's not a reasoned decision based on the software: it's a character trait.)

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, there you go. The users are just a propaganda proxy. The bitter lesson is that making profit is the only directive.

I find it odd that this was ever forgotten.

People like to see everything as self expression. In reality, a job is a job, and you're there to make money for someone else.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#128
post #90

> I've never been more productive Maybe it’s because my approach is much closer to a Product Engineer than a Software Engineer, but code output is rarely the reason why projects that I worked on are delayed. All my productivity issues can attributed to poor specifications, or problems that someone just threw over the wall. Every time I’m blocked is because someone didn’t make a decision on something, or no one has th…

aka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Silver_Bullet

And it's also interesting to think that PMs are also using AI - in my company for example we allow users to submit feedback, then there's an AI summary report sent to PMs. Which them put the report into ChatGPT with the organizational goals and the key players and previous meeting transcripts, and then they ask the AI to weave everything together into a PRD, or even a 10 slide presentation.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#129

The author is doing the math the wrong way. For an extra $5/day, a 3rd world country can now pay an engineer $20/day to do the job of a junior engineer in a 1st world one. The bitter lesson is going to be for junior engineers who see less job offers and don’t see consulting power houses eat their lunch.

Yes, my thoughts at the end of the article. If the AI coding is really good (or will be really, really good) you could give 6 figures salary + $5/d in OpenAI credits to a Bay Area developer, OR you give $5/d salary + $5/d in OpenAI credits to someone else from another country.

That's what happened to manufacturing after all.

Re: The Bitter Prediction

#130
post #113
post #90

> I've never been more productive Maybe it’s because my approach is much closer to a Product Engineer than a Software Engineer, but code output is rarely the reason why projects that I worked on are delayed. All my productivity issues can attributed to poor specifications, or problems that someone just threw over the wall. Every time I’m blocked is because someone didn’t make a decision on something, or no one has th…

> code output is rarely the reason why projects that I worked on are delayed This is very true at large enterprises. The pre-coding tasks [0] and the post-coding tasks [1] account for the majority of elapsed time that it takes for a feature to go from inception to production. The theory of constraints says that optimizations made to a step that's not the bottleneck will only make the actual bottleneck worse. AI is no…

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