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Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

epoch.ai

121–130 of 319 posts

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#121
post #95
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The code that AI is good at currently is exactly common tasks. Good luck getting it to write a competitive video card driver for Nvidia hardware or anything else that requires actual creative problem solving that isn’t github boilerplate.

> Good luck getting it to write a competitive video card driver for Nvidia hardware Jensen says they use AI to build their chips.

> $CEO says they use $HYPED_TECH to build their $PRODUCT.

Color me surprised.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#122
post #121
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Good luck getting it to write a competitive video card driver for Nvidia hardware Jensen says they use AI to build their chips.

> $CEO says they use $HYPED_TECH to build their $PRODUCT. Color me surprised.

What about you, do you use AI currently?

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#123
post #46
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regulation is violence? sorry for putting my socialist hat on, but free market is efficient, so efficient that without regulation it’ll optimise away human happiness and find a way to turn tears into profits. Regulation is basically saying that you can make money in ways that benefits the humanity also, at least in theory. Lobbying and corrupt regulators muddy the waters

Of course, laws/regulations are enforced by the party in a country that has a monopoly on violence, and use the threat of violence to enforce (either imprisonment or a monetary fine, monetary fines are a derivative of kidnapping as money takes time to accumulate). Of course I'm not arguing against these functions in general, they should be used in ways that prevent an even worse act of violence (ex. a corporation was…

Hmm, I see where you’re coming from. Monetary fines impact corporations “where it hurts”, i.e. the bottom line.

But yea, that’s the only language that a corporate entity understands, unfortunately.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#124
post #56
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, laws/regulations are enforced by the party in a country that has a monopoly on violence, and use the threat of violence to enforce (either imprisonment or a monetary fine, monetary fines are a derivative of kidnapping as money takes time to accumulate). Of course I'm not arguing against these functions in general, they should be used in ways that prevent an even worse act of violence (ex. a corporation was…

Threat of violence is not violence. A policeman standing on a public square threatening to incarcerate anybody who is violent results in no violence actually happening at that square. Take away that regulation (in form of the policeman) and watch the actual violence start.

That’s a very narrow view of humanity and morality. Only psychopaths (in a clinical sense, not derogatory) model their actions strictly by what’s legal.

Many things are moral, but have no legal coverage, some things are moral but illegal, and some immoral but legal.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

> I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. I don't understand, what stops you from doing that today?

the complexity and expense and necessity for expertise of today's farming machines aren't what the OP is talking about, which sounds more like something from Asimov's Caves of Steel

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#127
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. I don't understand, what stops you from doing that today?

The fact that those robots don't exist :-)

Those robots want to be all your tools, with subscription and expensive maintenance that you can no longer do it yourself. And with the obvious kill switch. From tractors to other things

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if I told you 10yrs ago that we'd have AI that can do math/code better than 99% of humans This not even remotely close to true. Like not even a little bit. I use Cursor and Gemini for work daily and I'd be hard pressed to think AI is a "better" programmer than any professional software engineer. Sure it makes writing code faster and more efficient, because you just click tab and three lines are written for you. It…

The top 50% of college freshman math and physics majors is approximately equal to the top 1% of all people.

https://danluu.com/p95-skill/

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#129
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technical progress would be fantastic if the benefits didn't go mainly to the top. I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. Or have them do all your housework. In principle, this is great, but our society is not set up for a lot of people not working while the technology is progressed by a relatively small number o…

You can live off the land today with no help from robots. I know a couple of folks who had enough of corporate America and now live on a farm in Florida. It's been almost 10 years, they're doing all right. It's not even that much work unless you grow stuff commercially. But I hear what you're saying. More "humane" progress would certainly be very welcome. In fact if neo-feudalism wins, most of us will have to "live o…

If neo-feudalism wins the majority will be working on the goals of the feudal nobility, whatwver that may be.

Re: Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R & D

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I am pretty sure in the not too far future we will have enough technology that you can live off the land somewhere with the help of some robots. I don't understand, what stops you from doing that today?

the complexity and expense and necessity for expertise of today's farming machines aren't what the OP is talking about, which sounds more like something from Asimov's Caves of Steel

Yes actually robotics is still in its infancy, it needs machine learning advances to become anything like the generalized problem solving worker that farms need, especially small family farms.

Source: I have worked on both robots and small farms.

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