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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#121
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

1. Don't know where you live that the all-in costs on someone with a PhD are $4k-$7k/mo. Maybe if their PhD is in anthropology. 2. How many such PhD people can it do the work of?

Postdocs in Europe make about 3-4k eur/month in academic research.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a prominent subset of the tech crowd who are ladder climbers - ruthlessly pursuing what is rewarded with pay/title/prestige without regard to actually making good stuff. There are countless kidding-on-the-square jokes about projects where the innovators left at launch and passed it off to the maintenance team, or where a rebrand was in pursuit of someone's promo project. See also, killedbygoogle.com.

At my former employer, there was a team who were very much into resume-driven development and wrote projects in Go even when Java would have been the better alternative considering the overall department and maintenance team expertise, all the while they were informally grumbling about how Go doesn’t have the features they need…

I've seen the exact same pattern play out with different tools. The team used a shiny new immature platform for nice sounding reasons and then spent 80% of their time reinventing wheels that have already been solved in any number of places.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#123
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

Next up: CEO level model to run your company. Pricing starts at $800k/month plus stock options

I won’t considering trusting an AI to run a company until it can beat me at Risk

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#124
post #36

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

If truly equivalent (which LLMs aren't, but I'll entertain it), that doesn't seem mathematically out of line.

Humans typically work 1/3rd duty cycle or less. A robot that can do what a human does is automatically 3x better because it doesn't eat, sleep, have a family, or have human rights.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#125

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

Do you have a source for these supposed leaks? Those prices don't sound even remotely credible and I can't find anything on HN in the past week with the keywords "openai leak".

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AMD could have ROCm perfected if they really want to. It's not an act of will or CEO dictat. It's about hiring and incentivising the right people, putting the right structures in place etc all in the face of competing demands. Nvidia have a huge head start and by the time AMD have 'caught up' Nvidia with it's greater resources will have moved further ahead.

If head start is a moat, why wouldn't you count OpenAI's headstart as moat?

Because we already see firms competing effectively with OpenAI.

There is as yet no indication that AMD can match Nvidia's execution for the very good reason that doing so is extremely difficult. The head start is just the icing on the cake.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#128
post #36

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

What funny is that people make the lamest strawman assumptions and just run with it.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#130
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty funny that OpenAI wants to sell access to a "PhD level" model at a price with which you can hire like 3-5 real human PhDs full-time.

Next up: CEO level model to run your company. Pricing starts at $800k/month plus stock options

Early cancelation fee is $15M though so watch out for that.
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