121–130 of 1001 posts
US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are missing one thing: any weapons flying into China will result in stuff exploding in New York and Washington. US carriers will be sunk, and there is no appetite in the US for either scenario. Anyway, the whole thing won't require a single shot. The island and the mainland have close economic ties; people that determine taiwanese policy are heavily invested in China. All the tough words that are being said are f…
That’s not really how war works. A regional conflict over Taiwan is highly unlikely to result in ICBMs headed for NYC and DC, because China knows that’s effectively the end of modern China. And sinking carriers would also be a very risky escalation given the ability of the US and other allies to retaliate. I do think you’re right that Taiwan will ultimately lose without much warfare, because Trump is a world-class co…
If that was how it worked, why wouldn’t China declare all their transport boats sacrosanct?
If we think our retaliation to getting a carrier sunk would be to end the world, we should probably not use them.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. Its the only card Taiwan holds once its gone America will never care about them
These comments just ignore history. Tsmc wasn't even founded until 1987, let alone dominant. US commitments are from WW2.
This is to re-secure the advanced chip supply in case a conflict actually breaks out in the pacific.
For China, taking Taiwan isn't really about TSMC. It's an ideology that stems from the century of humiliation. Furthermore, once they take Taiwan, SK, Japan, PH will eventually bow as well.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Another question is whether it is defendable at this point. It's not clear that China doesn't have military superiority over that area.
I think that the deterrent is Taiwan destroying all their fabs before the Chinese get to them. This would severely affect the _entire_ world therefore there are strong incentives to keep Taiwan independent.
Further more, China doesn't care about TSMC. It's a nice bonus. But re-taking Taiwan is an ideology.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A big difference with Taiwan vs Ukraine is that the US lets Taiwan purchase much more top of the line equipment.
Taiwan is still not allowed to buy F35 fighters. And the weapons they are allowed to buy from the US are delivered late and of poor quality: Taiwan Is Getting Its U.S. Weaponry—but Years Behind Schedule: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/taiwan-is-getting-its-u-s-wea... U.S. delivered "wet and moldy body armor" to Taiwan, Pentagon watchdog says: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-wet-moldy-body-armor-to-tai... The US has…
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10256
Sounds like we've been a great partner with Taiwan. Also, wanting to trade on "business I.P." would make more sense if you mentioned we're already doing around $158 billion in business with them. Each side's businesses have a lot of mutual dependence where you'd want a higher production of chips that each side could trust. We had a supply shortage with fabs not long ago, too.
Whereas, military tech is a strategic advantage we owe to nobody. They can buy it or not. I'd rather they not be ripped off in the process. Helping us make cutting edge chips here is different than giving people weapons.
For example, I'm American. I'm allowed to have business, but not military, technology. I can probably license and operate a fab. I can't buy fighter jets at all. That's despite how Harrier jets as a solution to traffic congestion could boost my personal productivity.
Why?
TSMC was likely threatened by Trump to invest in America. TSMC likely didn't want to do this. However, because they will have more fabs in the US, they'll likely avoid the tariffs as part of the deal. Further more, TSMC will still make chips in case of of a China take over. The risk here is that the US will simply confiscate TSMC's fabs if China uses military action on Taiwan based on security measures. That's the worst case scenario for TSMC.
For Taiwan, it's a terrible deal because the money is not invested in Taiwan and the island becomes less important in the world. The "silicon shield" would also be broken and the Taiwanese government has zero control over fabs in the US.
It remains to be seen if this will truly happen. Perhaps TSMC will always keep its most cutting edge node in Taiwan. Perhaps they'll drag this out over the next 4 years in hopes that Trump's party gets voted out.
An ok deal for TSMC, terrible deal for Taiwan. Why? TSMC was likely threatened by Trump to invest in America. TSMC likely didn't want to do this. However, because they will have more fabs in the US, they'll likely avoid the tariffs as part of the deal. Further more, TSMC will still make chips in case of of a China take over. The risk here is that the US will simply confiscate TSMC's fabs if China uses military action…
When / if TSMC secures that all lifecycle for advanced large scale chip manufacturing is in the US, Taiwan might find themselves in very iffy waters.
Might be a silly question but considering the tensions between US and EU right now... What would happen to all these deals if ASML was was not allowed to sell their machines to US companies? I don't know enough to even speculate on these wild scenarios
What does this mean for Intel’s foundry efforts? Are they basically dead now?