Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making • Hacker News Board

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#121

Post by skippyboxedhero » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 9:56 PM UTC

twolf910616 wrote: post #113

epolanski wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, the situation is not as dire as in baseball or arguably even soccer, there's more chaos and room for innovation. But still data-lization is taking the fun out of basketball, that's for sure.

wow really? Did soccer also go through a statistical revolution? I don't watch soccer at all and am pretty surprised to hear this. Did all the teams converge on a winning solution?

completely the opposite

because of the structure of soccer (completely different to basketball, it is an invasion sport but statistically very dissimilar), it has completely reversed the ordering of the sport

there is significantly more strategic diversity, and teams that were unable to compete ten years ago are now able to compete effectively with wealthier teams (there is no catchup mechanic in soccer unlike US sports, ffp rules have also played a role but in the EPL at least the primary factor has been smaller teams using their budget more effectively)

the most recent changes have been: premium for coaches (distinct from managers) has increased significantly and a greater focus on set pieces (but this is going back to the future, twenty years ago EPL had a period where teams did this to level the field...today, they are doing this and it appears to be permanent).

it is also worth adding, i would say the majority of clubs that have tried a naive statistical approach have failed. Liverpool tried and are leading but are completely reliant on one player, Arsenal are doing better but reliant on set plays and their recruitment has been poor (they have had a stats team for over ten years at this point), the teams that have done well with stats (Brighton and Brentford) have a hybrid approach (and Brighton is further down the road with this, and have done significantly better...they use non-public resources far better, integrated with sport science, etc.)

if stats in soccer is a 90-minute game, we are still at minute 5

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#122

Post by bluedevil2k » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 9:58 PM UTC

atmosx wrote: post #78

meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

The real problem is the players don’t give a sh*t about the fans any more. You need no better example of that than the All star game tomorrow. In the 90’s it was an amazing, competitive game between the best players in the league. Now…the players can’t even be bothered to jog up and down the court. Load management: players claim their bodies are delicate and can’t play too many games. Why would I want to buy tickets to a game or watch on TV if there’s a good chance the stars aren’t even playing. Guys the 90’s played every game. Players now sign a 5 year contract and the next day ask for a trade. Look at Kevin Durant - great player, but has forced his way out of 3 teams and it’s about to be a 4th. Too much guaranteed money means too little incentive. If the players don’t care about us, why should we care about them?

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#123

Post by chefandy » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:02 PM UTC

meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

When analyzing non-computing problems through a computer science lens, the human element merely muddies the path to a concrete answer. It’s best to avoid that ambiguity and complexity.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#124

Post by pgm8705 » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:08 PM UTC

gfunk911 wrote: post #110

hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction. My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

I think it would be enough to simply move the 3 point line back a couple feet AND have it follow its natural arc out of bounds, thus eliminating the shorter and easier corner 3 shot.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#125

Post by ghaff » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:14 PM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #98

mopenstein wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My country of Smugistan solved playoff problem years ago. Very simple: every Smugball team makes playoffs. If Americans and Europeans weren't so far behind Smugistanian education system, they would have figured it out too.

It's not about being smug: 1) playoff format rends 6 months of games not very important, the biggest difference is in your seeding. That's..all? 2) another way it makes the previous 6/7 months pointless is that your entire season is based on a single set of games. You can be the best team in the league by far, but then if one player gets injured or you're out of form or unlucky it's over I just don't like leagues wit…

Most sports pretty much have a playoff system to a greater or lesser degree.

That said, basketball has pretty much always been one of the major US sports that can rely on a fairly small number of really good players and the rest don't matter nearly as much. Stars (pitchers, QBs, receivers, etc.) matter elsewhere but probably not individually as much as they do in basketball.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#126

Post by bongodongobob » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:17 PM UTC

hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

Are you talking about NBA basketball? Golf is more exciting.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#127

Post by bdangubic » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:20 PM UTC

pgm8705 wrote: post #124

gfunk911 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love the modern game. I just think the pendulum has swung a tiny bit too far toward 3s in the past 3-4 years, that's all. Just a nudge in the other direction. My ideal would be to try changing 2s and 3s to 3s and 4s. But that will never happen.

I think it would be enough to simply move the 3 point line back a couple feet AND have it follow its natural arc out of bounds, thus eliminating the shorter and easier corner 3 shot.

couple of feet is not enough. the line needs to move far enough such that vast majority of the players (more than 95%) shoot less than 30% from there. so probably 8 to 10 feet back. absolutely should happen but they will likely do something awesome like shortening quarters to 10 minutes

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#128

Post by The_Blade » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:23 PM UTC

streptomycin wrote: post #100

Danny Green is probably the father of [the 3-and-D] model, with his 40% career three-point field goal percentage and he also made into all-defensive team. Obviously people shot fewer 3s back then, but as far as I remember, Bruce Bowen was really the first 3-and-D player back in the 90s. Gone are the days of an all-around player. There is no longer a need for a player who does everything. Look at players like Kobe Bry…

Danny Green is not the father of the 3-and-d model, he's like the great nephew. Not only Bruce Bowen but you also have Shane Battier, and can also go back to Michael Cooper.

Usage rates also show there is still plenty of heliocentrism so Copernicus remains happy

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#129

Post by bdangubic » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:23 PM UTC

bongodongobob wrote: post #126

hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

Are you talking about NBA basketball? Golf is more exciting.

I am about as crazy of an nba fan as they come - or at least I used to be. I was averaging 80-90 games per year before, now I watch maybe 20 max, mostly in the playoffs. Surely there are people that prefer today's nba, I am not one of them. I think chucking 3's is the least interesting part of the game and it is so overwhelming in today's game that I lost interest in watching

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#130

Post by idlewords » Sat, Feb 15, 2025, 10:23 PM UTC

bdangubic wrote: post #127

pgm8705 wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it would be enough to simply move the 3 point line back a couple feet AND have it follow its natural arc out of bounds, thus eliminating the shorter and easier corner 3 shot.

couple of feet is not enough. the line needs to move far enough such that vast majority of the players (more than 95%) shoot less than 30% from there. so probably 8 to 10 feet back. absolutely should happen but they will likely do something awesome like shortening quarters to 10 minutes

Just fill the ball with water.