121–130 of 374 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a 3 in 4 chance an asteroid hitting the earth will hit water, and of the remaining change about 50/50 it hits a desert or ice sheet (Antarctica, Greenland).
The stripe where this object could hit is mostly at low latitude.
I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…
A slight tangent.. but my favorite thing about Horizons is that they still maintain a telnet interface to their system. Once you learn to use it it's quite a bit of fun to play around with it.
I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…
Great post, thank you! Where does the uncertainty (1%) come from? For example, is it more from our ability to precisely determine the orbit based on limited observations, or is it because orbits for objects like this just aren't predictable years out, or something else?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
This. It’s a crucial step for our civilisation to be able to protect earth from any incoming dangers be it asteroids or Umuamua type objects. There must be a global effort with all countries to build such a system.
Good luck with that... currently we are failing to muster a global effort for tackling climate change, which is a much more pressing issue than an asteroid which may or may not hit us. I know https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Look_Up is satirical, but reality often outdoes satire, so I wouldn't be surprised if things would play out exactly like in that movie...
There is no doubt that an asteroid hitting earth is.
I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…
Great post, thank you! Where does the uncertainty (1%) come from? For example, is it more from our ability to precisely determine the orbit based on limited observations, or is it because orbits for objects like this just aren't predictable years out, or something else?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
[flagged]
Yeah it is bad and a lot of damage if it hits somewhere populous but my understanding is we've tested nukes that powerful
Given the predicted time, could we calculate which hemisphere is most likely for it to impact?
2032 Mayan prophecy + 2024 YR4 = prime fuel for internet-born doomsday cults. "The final katun in the sequence that must happen before the new cycle of the katuns begins again is 13 Ahau. This starts in 2032 and ends in 2052. It is the time from 2032 to 2052, that great earth changes may take place. The translation from the codices about 13 Ahau that starts in 2032 is ‘Famine, plagues of locusts, and loss of rulers.…
