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Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

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Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#121

Post by netdevphoenix »

mirzap wrote: post #101
mbowcut2 wrote: post #86

DeepSeek has demonstrated that there is no technical moat. Model training costs are plummeting, and the margins for APIs will just get slimmer. Plus model capabilities are plateauing. Once model improvement slows down enough, seems to me like the battle is to be fought in the application layer. Whoever can make the killer app will capture the market.

Model capabilities are not plateauing; in fact, they are improving exponentially. I believe people struggle to grasp how AI works and how it differs from other technologies we invented. Our brains tend to think linearly; that's why we see AI as an "app." With AI (ASI), everything accelerates. There will be no concept of an "app" in ASI world.

Can you give examples? From gpt-4 came out in 2023 and since then nothing similar to (3.5 to 4 or 2 to 3) has come out. It has been 2 years now. All signs point towards OpenAI struggling to get improvements from its llms. The new releases have been minor since 2023

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#122

Post by RugnirViking »

stego-tech wrote: post #53

A pretty good read that succinctly picks apart the realities of current AI businesses. Easily something I’d reference as a “primer” to someone that is more business-minded than technically-minded. One point I’ll agree on is his final one: that the true big players haven’t even been founded yet. Right now, the AI hype seems to still revolve around the dream of replacing humans with machines and still magically making…

I believe one of the real insights of the widespread adoption of LLMs across problem domains is that the general knowledge insight of such models actually maps to increased performance on specific domain tasks. Hence finetuning is a better approach than training from scratch, unless you have insane compute (at which point, why restrict yourself to a narrow domain?)

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#123

Post by RugnirViking »

breakitmakeit wrote: post #38
coldpepper wrote: post #7

AI is still a fad.

I wrote a tested prototype MMO in the last few weekends with AI as my power tools. You're holding it wrong.

I'm VERY interested in your project. Not playing it, I mean more the techniques and tech stack. That sounds entirely out of my reach with an AI, and ive written game engines in c++ before. Networking, synchronisation problems, etc are really really hard.

What process did you use with the AIs, any prompting insights - context, agentic prompts etc?

What tech stack did you use that you found AIs were familliar enough with, ive found them woefully misinformed about most libraries and technologies ive tried them with in game development, often confidently mixing out of date and new information

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#124

Post by RugnirViking »

refulgentis wrote: post #67
broken_clock wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What tools are you using to delegate?

My own app, it's called Telosnex. Unfortunately, the current available version doesn't have the agent stuff yet. Hopefully in a week, realistically two. I had the existing client app I've released-but-not-released-out-loud. Couple days before Christmas, for fun, I spent a couple hours wiring up the Anthropic Model Context Protocol filesystem server example. Within an hour it was clear this was special and I needed to…

The website for your editor (https://telosnex.com/) has some... character. However I do believe its worth a second look at making it look nicer, I know you aren't a designer and probably think you're going for a more "raw" and "friendly" look by not putting that much effort in and using conflicting fonts, colour schemes etc, and I agree there is a lot of value in avoiding corpo-internet styles, but I still think it could stand to look less like a mixture of ai sludge and poor photoshop jobs on the homepage.

Maybe consider something like https://www.gyan.dev/ffmpeg/builds/

or https://nemo.foo/

Nonetheless I will try it out

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#125

Post by bambax »

Palmik wrote: post #117
bambax wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the cost figures need more scrutiny; they started with Llama3 which they got for free; had they had to build it from scratch it would have cost more than $6M. But as for your first paragraph: even if the "big AI players" have some secret sauce that will make their products better (and that they can actually keep secret), it seems unlikely it would be enough to command higher prices durably. A model would have t…

I don't know where you're getting your information from. Maybe you're confusing DeepSeek v3/r1 and the distilled r1 models. DeepSeek V3/R1 architecture isn't anything like Llama 3. Llama 3 isn't even a mixture of experts, not to mention the various other differences like attention compression etc

Indeed I got confused. DeepSeek V3 is not based on Llama 3. Sorry about that.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#126

Post by _heimdall »

elijahbenizzy wrote: post #42

We’ve just learned that it’s possible to do AI on less compute (deepseek). if OpenAI doesn’t scale and that’s the problem then I’d argue that in the long run, if you believe in their ability to do research, then the news this week is a very bullish sign. IMO the equivalent of moores law for AI (both on software and hardware development) is baked into the price, which doesn’t make the valuation all too crazy.

> is baked into the price, which doesn’t make the valuation all too crazy.

Valuations for most large companies have been crazy for a while now. No one values a company based on fundamentals anymore, its all pure gambling on future predictions.

This isn't unique to OpenAI by any means, but they are a good example. Last I checked their revenue to valuation multiplier was in the range of 42X. That's crazy.

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#127

Post by HDThoreaun »

netdevphoenix wrote: post #121
mirzap wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Model capabilities are not plateauing; in fact, they are improving exponentially. I believe people struggle to grasp how AI works and how it differs from other technologies we invented. Our brains tend to think linearly; that's why we see AI as an "app." With AI (ASI), everything accelerates. There will be no concept of an "app" in ASI world.

Can you give examples? From gpt-4 came out in 2023 and since then nothing similar to (3.5 to 4 or 2 to 3) has come out. It has been 2 years now. All signs point towards OpenAI struggling to get improvements from its llms. The new releases have been minor since 2023

The chain of thought models provide huge improvements in certain areas. 2 years is also hardly enough time to claim theyre stuck

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#128

Post by [deleted] »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #127
netdevphoenix wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give examples? From gpt-4 came out in 2023 and since then nothing similar to (3.5 to 4 or 2 to 3) has come out. It has been 2 years now. All signs point towards OpenAI struggling to get improvements from its llms. The new releases have been minor since 2023

The chain of thought models provide huge improvements in certain areas. 2 years is also hardly enough time to claim theyre stuck

[deleted]

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#129

Post by netdevphoenix »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #127
netdevphoenix wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give examples? From gpt-4 came out in 2023 and since then nothing similar to (3.5 to 4 or 2 to 3) has come out. It has been 2 years now. All signs point towards OpenAI struggling to get improvements from its llms. The new releases have been minor since 2023

The chain of thought models provide huge improvements in certain areas. 2 years is also hardly enough time to claim theyre stuck

Money is not cheap anymore and OpenAI costs a lot to run. The longer it takes between impactful releases, the harder it gets for OpenAi to raise money especially in the face of significant competition both nationally, in the open source world and from China

Re: Why OpenAI's $157B valuation misreads AI's future (Oct 2024)

#130

Post by franktankbank »

mirzap wrote: post #101
mbowcut2 wrote: post #86

DeepSeek has demonstrated that there is no technical moat. Model training costs are plummeting, and the margins for APIs will just get slimmer. Plus model capabilities are plateauing. Once model improvement slows down enough, seems to me like the battle is to be fought in the application layer. Whoever can make the killer app will capture the market.

Model capabilities are not plateauing; in fact, they are improving exponentially. I believe people struggle to grasp how AI works and how it differs from other technologies we invented. Our brains tend to think linearly; that's why we see AI as an "app." With AI (ASI), everything accelerates. There will be no concept of an "app" in ASI world.

I keep reading this comment all over the internet.
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