I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research • Hacker News Board

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#121

Post by blackeyeblitzar » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:45 AM UTC

n144q wrote: post #22

proxyon wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Off the top of my head the reporting about Block - CashApp was disgraceful and Hindenburg got sued for it. Not sure how that's going to play out with disbanding the "company."

I don't think Hindenburg is scared of being sued, otherwise they wouldn't have been in the business in the first place. Their investigations are extremely thorough, with everything fully documented, mostly from public records, for the specific purpose that if/when they show up in court, they can be confident of the basis of their findings. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/adani-group-threate... P.S. where did…

How do you explain their report on Supermicro? It seems nothing was wrong there after all. From https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024120275/why-...

> the committee confirmed previously stated findings that there was "no evidence of fraud or misconduct on the part of management or the board of directors."

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#122

Post by glenstein » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:48 AM UTC

maronato wrote: post #87

Jimmc414 wrote: post #77

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

I got the same impression. I assume they have a good reason to have done it this way and I hope everyone on their team is safe.

I'll just pipe in as a reply to your comment that, despite never having known this org until now (unfortunately for me, they seem cool as hell), the statement reads as a bit inexplicable.

The first connection my brain made was to the moderator of /r/IAMA who, thirteen years ago, in the midst of its massive success, randomly and unilaterally decided to shut it down [1] (although on a retrospective reading, I actually understand their reasoning more than Hindenbergs).

[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/ju5cf/goodbye_iama_it...

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#123

Post by icehawk » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:48 AM UTC

Jimmc414 wrote: post #77

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

Honestly? That feels like a more genuine explanation. Business say they reasons for doing things, but I've not seen a high level decision maker that isn't eventually just "going with his gut."

At least they're honest here.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#124

Post by blackeyeblitzar » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:52 AM UTC

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> Hindenburg's reports were a true pleasure to read, and their track record proves their positive contribution to society. Many self-important people online are quick to pounce on short sellers as being evil, and that will forever be a serious red flag to me thanks in no small part to Nate Anderson and the folks at Hindenburg Research.

Short sellers taking positions and then putting out report and marketing to bring a company’s price down can also be perceived as market manipulation. It’s not about people being “self important” but conflict of interest and the incentive to lie or exaggerate for those short sellers.

For example months after Hindenburg’s report on Supermicro, the independent committee investigating alleged issues found nothing wrong (https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2024120275/why-...). The company ultimately confirmed that no prior or current financial reporting would need to be stated. So that makes the allegations false, or at least exaggerated, right? And doesn’t that mean profiteering through short positions and allegations of bad accounting would be market manipulation?

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#125

Post by dustingetz » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:55 AM UTC

barnabyjones wrote: post #93

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

Keep in mind, fraud isn't necessarily a big deal for the shareholder, not all fraud is Enron-tier. For example, I fully believe they were right about Adani, but it was basically just skimming money off the top. If Adani is an embezzler, but also good and funneling bribes to get gov't contracts, then the overall effect on profits may just be breakeven or even positive. The losers would be the Indian citizenry. The com…

zombie companies suck all the oxygen out of the room and away from productive companies, the victim is society and civilization at large and the damage is measured in lost exponential progress of unbound time axis, potentially millennia. Medical technology, longevity, scientific advances that we could have had but will not for another 10^N years - all retarded by malinvestment and misallocation. Theworldif.jpg

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#126

Post by gmd63 » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:56 AM UTC

barnabyjones wrote: post #93

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

Keep in mind, fraud isn't necessarily a big deal for the shareholder, not all fraud is Enron-tier. For example, I fully believe they were right about Adani, but it was basically just skimming money off the top. If Adani is an embezzler, but also good and funneling bribes to get gov't contracts, then the overall effect on profits may just be breakeven or even positive. The losers would be the Indian citizenry. The com…

Some shareholders seek fraud as it has the potential for the highest short term returns. The sooner we exile those folks the better.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#127

Post by mv4 » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 2:59 AM UTC

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

Even without fraud, the markets seem incredibly forgiving. For example, one would think that what Crowdstrike outage did to the airlines and businesses worldwide (and the levels of incompetence displayed) in 2024, would have destroyed the company. Instead, the stock has recovered nicely and it's business as usual. Or the massive security breaches - same outcome, it's as though nobody cares.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#128

Post by gmd63 » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 3:03 AM UTC

blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #124

gmd63 wrote: post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> Hindenburg's reports were a true pleasure to read, and their track record proves their positive contribution to society. Many self-important people online are quick to pounce on short sellers as being evil, and that will forever be a serious red flag to me thanks in no small part to Nate Anderson and the folks at Hindenburg Research. Short sellers taking positions and then putting out report and marketing to bring…

The first line of that article is

"New financial and accounting executives will be appointed, as recommended by the investigation committee"

I agree that harm is possible when short selling and lying about it.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#129

Post by blackeyeblitzar » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 3:05 AM UTC

gmd63 wrote: post #128

blackeyeblitzar wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hindenburg's reports were a true pleasure to read, and their track record proves their positive contribution to society. Many self-important people online are quick to pounce on short sellers as being evil, and that will forever be a serious red flag to me thanks in no small part to Nate Anderson and the folks at Hindenburg Research. Short sellers taking positions and then putting out report and marketing to bring…

The first line of that article is "New financial and accounting executives will be appointed, as recommended by the investigation committee" I agree that harm is possible when short selling and lying about it.

That’s because several people (and also EY, their auditor at the time) resigned in the wake of that report. Probably under pressure and lots of stress but also because of all the things that the initial independent investigation suggested needed to be reviewed. But now multiple investigations have completed those reviews and found nothing. And Supermicro has to fill vacant positions.

EDIT: since I am rate limited, here’s my reply to the child comment by gmd63

> Why would an investigation committee need to recommend that a company fill vacant financial and accounting executive positions? What you're saying makes no sense.

There are many reasons this can make sense. In this case, the most likely reason is that the allegations called into question the integrity of the executives and the board. New executives would be hired and approved by the same group, and it would look strange for them to do that while under investigation. The most important finding from the investigation is neither management (executives) nor the board acted improperly, which led to them making the recommendation.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#130

Post by revendell_elf » Thu, Jan 16, 2025, 3:07 AM UTC

icehawk wrote: post #123

Jimmc414 wrote: post #77

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

Honestly? That feels like a more genuine explanation. Business say they reasons for doing things, but I've not seen a high level decision maker that isn't eventually just "going with his gut." At least they're honest here.

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