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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#121

Post by Aeolun »

mstade wrote: post #108
Brian_K_White wrote: post #93

I just heard someone mention in a podcast how as a cyclist they need to make eye contact with drivers to be safe, and there is no one to make eye contact with. Waymo would say "don't worry, it sees you" and maybe the numbers even show they do some percentage more than the average human driver, but that still does not reproduce the self-help aspect of you looking at a driver until you see that that driver sees you. I…

This makes a lot of sense, also for pedestrians and other drivers. Having seen these things live in action, it creeped me out to see an empty drivers seat.

Need to give them led matrix front lights. The cars will be much less scary if they regularly blink.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#122

Post by necovek »

wqaatwt wrote: post #84
ddalex wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So Musk is effectively the most powerful man on the planet right now, he's a major player in 3 key industries, and the head of effective (de)regulation in the largest consumer market by dollar volume. Isn't this a bit like ole' good Crassus in ancient Rome? Head of the government and richest buddy aroubnd? If history repeats, we'll see the American Imperial Era rising up very soon, were the interests of the state wil…

Crassus died pursuing an absurd extremely expensive boondoggle. So if history is to repeat itself maybe SpaceX is sending that rocket to Mars after all.

With Musk onboard?

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#125

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Aeolun wrote: post #112
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the story of NASA's space pen As an example of an urban legend/facile pop science take being treated as fact [1]? > if the richest country in the world had the common sense of simply getting rid of its car dependency and developed proper public transit infrastructure Is there a single developed economy that doesn't make significant use of trucks and cars? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Pen#Uses_in_the_U.S.…

Depends on your population density. Tokyo does pretty well with purely public transport. There’s still cars of course, but you don’t use them for travel into the city proper if you don’t hate yourself.

> Tokyo does pretty well with purely public transport. There’s still cars of course, but you don’t use them for travel into the city proper if you don’t hate yourself

Japan has .67 vehicles per person, almost 80% America's .85 [1] and above many European countries. They travel about a fifth as many miles per capita as America [2]. But again, four fifths and a fifth. Nowhere close to zero.

There isn't a developed economy that wouldn't see a significant quality-of-life improvement from self-driving cars.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_territor...

[2] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar4.htm

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#126

Post by [deleted] »

khazhoux wrote: post #60
palata wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're "objectively" higher risk, based on a study by the company building the autopilot, right? How objective is that?

Like the Borg, every Waymo is the same driver. So in column A, the insurance company has a meta-driver with many millions of miles of statistics. In column B, we have slow-reaction and non-lidar-equipped you, who had a fender-bender last year and a speeding ticket 3 years ago.

[deleted]

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#127

Post by kiba »

mulmen wrote: post #56

I rode in a Waymo recently and was amazed at how good it was. It was easily in the top 5 best drivers I have ridden with. Really really impressive. It wasn’t nearly as cautious or timid as I expected it to be. But it also wasn’t reckless. I would describe it as assertive, but I’m sure some people would call it aggressive. It knows the rules and what’s going on around and acts accordingly. This really should be the no…

It's impressive and all, but my reaction to self driving cars are completely different.

It's a great technical feat, but it's not ever going to be efficient as public transportation. The form factor of the car works against it.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#128

Post by aithrowawaycomm »

nmca wrote: post #98
aithrowawaycomm wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is apples-to-apples. You need to somehow filter to people who are not speeding or otherwise breaking traffic laws. My problem with studies like these is "human-operated" is an enormous catch-all that blends together too many causes for accidents. 1) Not filtering out drunk drivers is downright misleading. I am less interested in "is mandatory self-driving safer than human drivers?" than "is mandato…

You’re trying to to characterise personal risk and they were tying to characterise societal risk; both are valid.

No, I am saying that it is misleading to draw conclusions about societal risk from this study.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#129

Post by ddalex »

necovek wrote: post #122
wqaatwt wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crassus died pursuing an absurd extremely expensive boondoggle. So if history is to repeat itself maybe SpaceX is sending that rocket to Mars after all.

With Musk onboard?

One can only hope. Probably not the original, but a clone.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#130

Post by myrmidon »

mindvirus wrote: post #79

I think insurance prices will drive adoption of self driving very quickly. Consider: if a non-self driving car is in an accident with a self driving car, it'll almost always be the non-self driving car at fault. And with the telemetry from the self-driving car, they can prove it too, so accidents that would have been no-fault or shared fault become fully the non-self driving cars fault. And so I think insurance for n…

Why would insurance need to get more expensive for manual drivers as self-driving adoption increases?

Ideally, insurance cost for self-driving cars would just be lower than insurance costs now (proportional to risk), and even insurance costs for manual drivers might go down because their risk decreases as well.

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