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UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

greshm.org

121–130 of 141 posts

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It would have been better to have bought a house, kept the easy job, and gone home at 4:30 each day. People see this. They see that wealth is handed out, arbitrarily, to the people who are connected to the issuance of currency and the banking system. That homeowners make more in a year from asset appreciation than well paid engineers do. This is an oversimplification naturally but the gist of it is spot on. Based o…

> Based on this dynamic, you should absolutely buy a 2nd home before the first is paid off, assume things continue as they have been so you can contribute to and benefit from rising prices everywhere. 2008 showed that to be a very unsafe assumption. Much more generally: Think in terms of supply and demand. If nobody is going to work any more, then the price of work goes way up. So does the price of things that work p…

> 2008 showed that to be a very unsafe assumption.

Totally. Just because it's the game that capital wants us to play doesn't mean that there's any guarantee that you win. It's just also that it's the only way to maybe win. This supports parent's argument that wealth distribution is arbitrary. One person wins and another loses, playing the same game the same way, just because they entered the market at different times. The uncomfortable contradiction that we're supposed to generally agree with is that the first person is "smart and hardworking", and the second person "is financially irresponsible, obviously living outside their means".

> So does the price of things that work produces.

Not sure if this a comment re: UBI, antiwork, or housing costs, but housing in particular is always a special kind of crazy because we've insisted on looking at it as a financial vehicle instead of you know, a place to live and work from. Prefab things that could cut costs are illegal most places. In Florida they build labor-intensive houses out of match-sticks even though the next hurricane is always coming, because that's what's easy to permit, that's what people historically wanted to insure, and it keeps construction rackets and developers in business. Further from the coasts, even in the more sparsely populated mountain/desert states, you can go to the edge of any larger town and look out at the "supply" of hundreds of miles of empty, and still get forced into paying half a million for a crappy place on half an acre. Supply and demand is certainly some kind of a factor, but like parents point about wealth-from-work vs wealth-from-asset-appreciation, it's a small factor and getting smaller. The market's already intensely manipulated.. it's just done in a way that makes problems worse instead of better.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#122
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My example was for a US UBI that only covered food and the math was limited to single people, but the points could be applied more broadly. UBI means everyone has an income of at least x$/year. If you’re making more than x$/year in take home pay that’s an income > x$/year. Behind the scenes the advantage of the government handing out money every month is redundancy . Even if that same amount is normally removed from…

If you want to take the SNAP program as a baseline and only slightly tweak the limits on when funds taper off, why bother with a new UBI program at all? It sounds like SNAP gets you 90% of the way there, it mainly just needs the restrictions on what the money can be spent on removed. With limits so low I'm not totally sure how it would make a meaningful difference compared to the various welfare and entitlement progr…

I was bringing it up as a starting point for discussion and to show how UBI doesn’t imply extra spending.

Proponents suggest bring more programs into a single UBI could significantly lower operating costs. A single check each month could replace some or all of: Housing assistance, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), including Pass through Child Support, General Assistance (GA), Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), etc.

Healthcare in the US is similarly split across Medicaid, Medicare, VA benefits, ACA health insurance subsidies, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), plus a host of things you haven’t heard of like Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program. There’s a massive opportunity for cost savings by simply reducing administrative redundancy.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#123
post #5

Doesn't UBI equate to lowering the prices for everything? Isn't it more feasible to pursue the latter?

No it doesn't, you can't multiply a zero income by any number and put people out of poverty. You can't redistribute wealth by multiplying everybody's income either.

But also, not it's not more feasible either. One is the government taxing money and distributing it by law, the other is a deep and complete intervention on the economy in ways that people don't even can't predict completely.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#124
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Honestly, I don't. First, perhaps it's small minded but I don't really feel responsible for every human on the planet, or even a significant percentage. A government that governs a nation is arguably responsible for every human in it.

Not even remotely so in practice. Adults are largely responsible for themselves and their kids/elders. Sure, with some government assistance but true state wards are fairly rare and the system would have no chance of working if they weren't.

> true state wards are fairly rare and the system would have no chance of working if they weren't

How so? Wouldn't that, at the very least, solve homelessness?

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#125
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think happens to the wealthy when the government does not ensure the majority of people are well fed and secure? Does the mob respect property rights?

Sorry, I'm not quite sure how that ties in. What's your point here with regards to a UBI and whether a government should work for or be parent to its constituents?

Citizens have to obey their country's laws (restriction of freedom) in exchange for government taking care of essential human needs like housing, clean water, electricity, food, and so on (obligation of the government).

If a citizen cannot get access to those needs (and remember - 5% unemployment is optimal), then why would anyone expect them to keep following their country' laws, and not steal and murder?

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#126
post #22
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We want to guarantee for every human on the planet the right to food, water, shelter, health care, and education. Giving everyone enough money to buy all those things themselves is one way to do it. Raising funds (taxes) and then providing those services for free is another way. It doesn’t really matter which way. What matters is that we agree on that goal and find some way to achieve it. Right now we have a system w…

We want to guarantee for every human on the planet the right to food, water, shelter, health care, and education. ... What matters is that we agree on that goal and find some way to achieve it. Honestly, I don't. First, perhaps it's small minded but I don't really feel responsible for every human on the planet, or even a significant percentage. Second, the value, even to the end recipient, of vast majority of educati…

I wouldn’t argue that you’re responsible for anyone. I would argue more that if you value the suffering of conscious things, it is a very short logical leap to care about such in all humans, even those who you don’t directly interact with. You don’t need to feel anything about them or be responsible for them to take the alleviation of broader human suffering into account when discussing policy. Do we disagree on this?

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#127

"The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed." There won't be the big UBI day, where we make the big switch globally. It's a creeping expansion of social benefits and transfer payments and an easing of work conditions. Some people will somehow stay in the unpleasant jobs, by inertia or the unfairness of a class system or, increasingly, by wages that compensate for the trouble. People will drop out o…

It's a creeping expansion of social benefits...society will adapt around it I think this will never happen (in the US). The modern political environment in the US won't allow it. If it appears that there will be an expansion of social benefits, the wealthy class will work to sabotage it (a la ACA; not that there weren't benefits, but net-net the shareholders and executives of insurance companies won). There's nothing…

> the wealthy class will continue to advance automation. LLMs, AI, robots, autonomous driving, etc.

The end game is something like the planet Solaria from Asimov.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#128
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you can usefully equate 'UBI' to a single outcome of UBI. One of the goals of UBI, as I interpret it, is to reduce the cost of living closer to zero. And that's the literal cost of living - not the macroeconomist's use of the term. That phrase, once you contemplate it, is a ludicrous reflection of how our society has gone wrong. Why should it cost to live? (You can consider the answer in terms of > 11ky…

> Why should it cost to live? Because that's how life works. With sufficient energy input into a system, the system can sustain complexity. Sun -> single-celled life -> plants -> animals. The food chain is an economy of energy. Money is a proxy for many different kinds of energy. It will never be cost-free to live, not for single-celled life, not for us. A Universal Basic Income absent substantial other changes in ou…

Very good points.

You're right, it does tend toward medieval when the serfs have less agency than the landed gentry.

>Why should it cost to live?

We would have to get out our slide rules, or maybe go back to them ;)

Well if previous generations productively built the richest country because of the most widespread opportunity (without taxing income) in historical times, and prevailed handily like no other when challenged by financially devastating world-wide conflict, with plenty of time to invest the surplus wisely and let it appreciate, you would expect by now everybody would be able to coast, but Nooo . . .

The government dropped the ball and it was already big enough to take away everything you had.

In complete defiance of what all those generations had in mind for us now, and everything every American had ever worked for.

That's why the cost of living is not lower, if not zero, or even negative, if only slightly better choices would have been made. Compounded over all this time !! And that's with only better stewardship of the percentage taken out of laborers' pay once that got going, without even considering the wealth of the citizens that had been built up before the quest for revenue did a 180 and turned on internal targets.

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#129
post #9
post #5

Doesn't UBI equate to lowering the prices for everything? Isn't it more feasible to pursue the latter?

The US doesn't have a centrally planned economy, so the government can't lower the prices of everything. UBI is much more feasible to implement than communism.

It's centrally planned by all the monopolies we have

Re: UBI and the Anti-Work Vibe Shift

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Snake oil is snake oil, but what if the economy is already upended? Plus after all recommended remedies have been tried, the only possible solution is to implement something that is not recommended. You're going to need a different kind of oil . . . Not my downvote btw, corrective upvote actually, you're making a lot of sense all over the place, along with many others.

Do you think we have tried all the recomended remedies? And who do we look to to define what is and isn't recommended? We're in uncharted territory here, at least in modern history. At best experts can hypothesize about different interventions but they are ultimately making assumptions that frequently go unspoken. The biggest category of remedies that I rare, if ever, see recommended is removing interventions from a…

>we should be reducing costs and liabilities.

This is the only real answer and the ongoing failure there is bad enough, but it's getting worse not better at a growing rate, and the few that do benefit when the majority suffer have had the upper hand financially for so long now, there may never be any possible reduction. I think this underlies a lot of the confusion about a solution since there's been increasing doubt for generations that there even is a solution to costs that didn't used to exist. It's been over 50 full years since I saw this accelerate through the roof and I already thought how was all of this bearable before that? It was plain to see it was unsustainable or we would end up like we are now. The only fair and predictable way to reverse never-ending wasteful costs that end up being imposed universally (to all citizens whether they own any currency or not), would be to roll them back in the reverse order in which they were imposed. And go back as far as it takes for the US to be as "rich" as it once was.

That was then and it already seemed impossible :(

>Do you think we have tried all the recomended remedies?

Even back then I never thought all sensible remedies would be tried in my lifetime and it was more of a shock then compared to a gradual boiling since.

>And who do we look to to define what is and isn't recommended?

There is no answer when everybody who says they have one can only be lying.

>We're in uncharted territory here

That's so true, in spite of so many similarities and logically expected negative outcomes for an increasing majority, it's still not supposed to be this way by this time at all, and surely never been quite like this before. It's been awry for so long it can only get weirder.

Plus those actually acting in decision-making positions have never been as intellectually incapable of making sweeping changes, and everybody knows it, especially changes for the better. There is no end to the decline in brainpower. Politics only gets in the way further since smart people are limited to the same choices as dumb people.

Now a lot of the financial decision-makers are billionaires, but if they are so wise with money why is the whole country not as "rich" as it used to be?

UBI does seem a little communist being a "mandated wealth redistribution" but I think there are complete free-market capitalists who are OK with it when they do the math for themselves. At their scale it's not wealth being redistributed, it's a pittance.

It's like UBI could be huge and apply to everybody which really adds up, but too late, that's not sweeping changes any more. It's actually more likely and less disruptive to the powers-that-be compared to fixing the real problem which I'm sure some very sophisticated financial institutions have calculated would be even more costly, for them. By untold amounts, so don't go there. Everything unspoken may not be an assumption.

>I would love to see honest research

Your eyes would have to be very privileged for that :)

Citizens be damned, let them eat cake, or soylent green, whatever they can get their hands on. Maybe not, if you do give enough for the population to have cake every month, they might be revolting anyway, so why bother ;)

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