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Will we ever get fusion power?

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Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#121

Post by nvader »

rmbyrro wrote: post #95

In 100,000 years from now, after we're past the next ice age, archeologists will unearth tokamaks all around the world. Regular people will speculate aliens and a worldwide connection between the peoples of the world to explain the multiple occurrences. They'll have unlimited energy based on some quantum shit.

Hopefully nobody reads this comment of mine, but there's something I've been drying to get off my chest.

With no evidence, I believe that there is a quantum computing algorithm for fusion. It feels like there might be some way of using quantum computers to fuse "qubits" in such a way as to generate netenergy, one particle at a time.

But of course, ancients fantasized a boat could land on the moon.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#122

Post by BirAdam »

CuriousCosmic wrote: post #102
markus_zhang wrote: post #96

20 years from now. And the same answer after 20 years.

The only reason the answer is always 20 years from now is because governments have withdrawn funding to such an absurd degree that projects have to take long, well measured risks otherwise they lose their funding versus rapid iteration of projects with high risks of failure (and high costs). This is ultimately a capital game and without enough capital researchers and engineers have to go with the safest bets lest the…

Or it’s always in the future because people are trying to do with an accelerator what normally takes the mass of a star to do. Whether or not it’s even possible is up for debate.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#123

Post by Retric »

7thaccount wrote: post #116
rcxdude wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Base load" doesn't really enter into it: you just need storage to make renewables make sense by supplying when generation doesn't meet demand and recharging when demand is less than supply. (or, if you have a cheap "base load" you use storage to even out the peaks and troughs in the same way). Base load is just a somewhat arbitrary line drawn across the lowest point of demand, it's not an actual requirement of the g…

There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Storage can come to the rescue if this is a few hours, but over much longer time periods will be a problem. It's rare, but not unheard of. Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

> over much longer time periods

It’s not clear there would be much longer time periods. Build enough low carbon generation to guarantee a surplus every day and you have a surplus every day.

Anyone claiming we need days worth of storage is inherently making an argument that days worth of storage is cheaper than simply building more generation and generation is really cheap while batteries aren’t.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#124

Post by BirAdam »

BobaFloutist wrote: post #119
arrosenberg wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we could build such a device we would effectively have unlimited energy. At that point, why fight each other when we can colonize the galaxy?

Why are we fighting each other now? It's largely cultural and religious motivations, if we worked together as a planet we could get some really interesting things done.

Governments don’t fight because of religion or culture. They do it over power, resources, and material wealth.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#125

Post by peutetre »

Dr4kn wrote: post #104
peutetre wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, there are multiple projects and companies that are making good progress toward commercially practical fusion reactors. Helion Energy has a contract to deliver Microsoft a fusion reactor by 2028. It's only four years away so we don't need to speculate about it. Helion will either deliver or they won't: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nucle... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38 https…

No one can generate enough energy with fusion at the moment. Even if Helion could do it today they would need to build a larger reactor and test that too. Then build the one for Microsoft. To do all of this in 4 years is pretty much impossible

Helion's reactors are smaller and simpler field reversed configuration reactors. They've built multiple prototypes over the last 11 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy#Development_hist...

The prototype currently under construction is Polaris. It's 25% larger than the previous prototype and they expect it to achieve net electricity production:

https://www.helionenergy.com/polaris/

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#126

Post by nox101 »

Retric wrote: post #123
7thaccount wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Storage can come to the rescue if this is a few hours, but over much longer time periods will be a problem. It's rare, but not unheard of. Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

> over much longer time periods It’s not clear there would be much longer time periods. Build enough low carbon generation to guarantee a surplus every day and you have a surplus every day. Anyone claiming we need days worth of storage is inherently making an argument that days worth of storage is cheaper than simply building more generation and generation is really cheap while batteries aren’t.

According to several studies you need up to 2 weeks of storage, not just 24hrs, because checking on the long term, every decade or 2 you get 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind, etc....

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#127

Post by BirAdam »

ffgjgf1 wrote: post #49
immibis wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily, most people don't live there and they are well connected to a big grid that isn't like that.

Well… over 80 million of people live in Germany: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/monthly-gener... Over-provisioning by 7x might not be extremely practical. I guess there is a lot of space in Spain that could be filled with solar panels (production only falls by ~50% there in winter so it’s not to bad) but there is certainly not enough grid capacity to transfer all of that north (and building new infras…

Personally, that lack of space is a thing that bothers me. Screw the plants and animals, we need solar farms, right?

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#128

Post by peutetre »

grecy wrote: post #107
peutetre wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, there are multiple projects and companies that are making good progress toward commercially practical fusion reactors. Helion Energy has a contract to deliver Microsoft a fusion reactor by 2028. It's only four years away so we don't need to speculate about it. Helion will either deliver or they won't: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nucle... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bDXXWQxK38 https…

China are currently building 27 fission reactors, and the construction time is 7 years. If it takes 7 years to build something that is known and has been done a couple of hundred times before, I think it's safe to say it will take more than 4 years to build something of similar complexity that has never been done before.

Helion's reactors are smaller and simpler. They've already built 6 prototypes across the last 11 years. They're building the seventh prototype now.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#129

Post by Retric »

nox101 wrote: post #126
Retric wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> over much longer time periods It’s not clear there would be much longer time periods. Build enough low carbon generation to guarantee a surplus every day and you have a surplus every day. Anyone claiming we need days worth of storage is inherently making an argument that days worth of storage is cheaper than simply building more generation and generation is really cheap while batteries aren’t.

According to several studies you need up to 2 weeks of storage, not just 24hrs, because checking on the long term, every decade or 2 you get 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind, etc....

> 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind

AND not OR. To actually need 2 weeks of storage you would need both 0 output in solar for 2 weeks and 0 wind for two weeks and 0 output from hydro. That doesn’t happen.

You still get solar power on cloudy days, it just takes more panels to generate some specific level of power.

The goal is to minimize X$ for generation + Y$ for storage while guaranteeing sufficient supply. Any study approaching things from any other set of assumptions is going to give you nonsensical answers.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#130

Post by ComputerGuru »

mr_toad wrote: post #34
jmpman wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will orbiting solar panels ever work? Now that starship is viable, payload cost to orbit will dramatically drop. Is it cheaper to have orbiting solar plants than solar/battery(or whatever long term energy storage)? It’s that baseload problem which makes the manmade fusion/fission attractive.

For a space based solution you have all the costs of solar, plus launch costs, plus the receivers are very large and costly themselves. It’s never going to be cheaper than solar, but it does have the advantage of working at night and through cloud cover. In the very long run it might make more sense to launch whatever’s using the power into space as well, saving on the cost of the transmission and receiving infrastru…

No heat dissipation is a huge con.
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