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Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

princeton.edu

121–130 of 188 posts

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#121
Luck is too broad a term.

I suggest that success is down to two components: alpha, and creativity.

Creativity is whatever value you create with your own talents and your own hard work.

Alpha is whatever opportunities come your way, which you need to seize to benefit from.

Obviously some people are just born in a better position to capture/generate alpha. And also you can work at gaining a better vantage point for seeking alpha. But seizing it still takes skill (and most of it goes unrealized), and people can be rightfully proud about that (as long as they don't confuse the alpha component with the creativity component, which would be somewhat tiresome).

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#122
post #4

My success and failures in life have had nothing to do with luck. I've been both lucky and unlucky at various times, but none of them have determined my level of success over the short or long term to any significant degree. At the same time I've had periods where I worked hard and was focused and passionate about what I was doing, and periods where I was not passionate, unmotivated by a crushingly poorly run organiz…

Isn't it so disappointing that on all of your comments on HN, you are consistently discriminated against and censored? I mean, it's obviously done because of the politically correct anti-intellectual crowd on HN, whose only recourse is to write ad hominem attacks on your character. Since you're obviously always correct and you have a perfect grasp of the world and the way it works, isn't it annoying to deal with all these stupid morons who have different -- and therefore obviously idiotic -- views of the world?

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#123
A similar sentiment is expressed wonderfully tersely in Lemony Snicket's notes on Occupy Wall Street.

http://occupywriters.com/works/by-lemony-snicket

There may not be a reason to share your cake. It is, after all, yours. You probably baked it yourself, in an oven of your own construction with ingredients you harvested yourself. It may be possible to keep your entire cake while explaining to any nearby hungry people just how reasonable you are.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#124
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really hard to avoid the perception that you haven't read the article, or the book, or done the little bit of research you're referring to, since Michael Lewis never worked at Goldman; not only did he never work at Goldman, but the whole last part of Liar's Poker is about the famous and epic collapse of the firm he did work for, and about him leaving finance after the collapse occurred.

Its really hard to comment on Hacker News without getting a reply from you where dishonestly exaggerate what I have said to try and impunge me. (which is, frankly, ad hominem) The fact of the matter is that "Goldman" had replaced "Soloman" in my head in the intervening years and so I typed the wrong thing. I think its hilarious that you guys are trying to shut me up and attack me because it is such a plain admission…

It's a really great book, is all.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#125
post #14

I'm surprised by how defensive people can get about their own success. It seems to me that you can never know if your success was due to your own hard work or some lucky breaks (or, more probably, a combination of both to which you'll never know the balance). It reminds me of the story about thousands of people flipping coins. Out of those thousands of people, some of them are going to flip a long string of heads. Do…

Using this logic, pretty much everything is due to luck. finish your PHD? You were lucky that you were accepted and that you had a good enough education to get into the program. "It seems to me that you can never know if your success was due to your own hard work or some lucky breaks" You may have a point. But, I'm really tried of people attributing all success to luck (and using this as an excuse as to why they aren…

Nobody finishes their PhD without enough food to eat as a child so they don't die before they reach age 12. It is luck that you were born to your parents. It is luck that you are still alive despite the hundreds of dangers and probabilistic events that could have killed you every day since you were born. What you do with your luck that you have is up to you. Working hard doesn't prevent you from getting hit in the head with falling tiles.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#126

His point is essentially the one developed at length by Malcolm Gladwell in "Outliers." Namely, that great successes are almost always dependent on a uniquely fortunate set of events that the person is able to exploit well, rather than their success being the result of genius.

If two random people were given equally fortunate sets of events in their lives, would they both exploit those events to reach the same level of success? Or could it be said that genius is recognizing those fortunate events when they come your way?

They wouldn't, because at least gene has its role. Life events + genes + free will => destiny. The role of the first two are pretty self-evident. I'm not sure about the role of free will, if it exists.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#127

Michael Lewis meet Quora; Quora meet Michael Lewis: http://www.quora.com/Wealthy-People-and-Families/Why-dont-so... The question I want answered is: How do you optimise for luck? I've come to the conclusion that one most work very hard on something with a scalable market value for a long period of time. You continue to do this (repeatedly if need be), until you either, in order of likelihood: a) Quit b) Die c) Get lu…

Mary Gates, Bill Gates' mother, was on the same board as John Opel, the president, chairman and CEO of I.B.M. They discussed her son's company and Mr. Opel mentioned Mrs. Gates to other I.B.M. executives. A few weeks later, I.B.M. took a chance by hiring Microsoft, then a small software company, to develop an operating system for its first personal computer.

So a discussion Mary Gates had with John Opel while they were both serving on the board of United Way of America resulted in an IBM contract being placed with her son Bill's company Microsoft to create an operating system for IBM's first personal computer.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#128

This really surprised me: > They entered the room bearing a plate of cookies. Four cookies. The team consisted of three people, but there were these four cookies. Every team member obviously got one cookie, but that left a fourth cookie, just sitting there. It should have been awkward. But it wasn't. With incredible consistency the person arbitrarily appointed leader of the group grabbed the fourth cookie, and ate it…

I'm very, very suspicious of this claim. In any situation I've been in like this, the leader has been almost overly gracious about sharing or outright giving to the non-leaders.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#129
post #38
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want people to remember what you have to say, make your point, and get off the stage.

Similarly I've long noticed a connection between brevity and stature. In speech, writing and behavior. With sales by the way it's always important to get your ass out of dodge after getting agreement from the customer, lest they change their mind.

"Always leave them wanting more" isn't just advice for show business.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#130
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but I'm talking about retrospection here, not prospection. People, even when talking about past successes, are very unlikely to admit their good fortune. In other words you're more likely to hear, "I worked very hard" than "I worked very hard and was very lucky." There are notable exceptions. Warren Buffet has openly talked about the role of luck in his success.

"The harder I work, the luckier I get" - Samuel Goldwyn

And likewise, "luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey
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