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Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

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Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#121

Post by JumpCrisscross »

orenlindsey wrote: post #119
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #116

Atlas V + Starliner vs Falcon + Dragon is SLS + Orion vs Starship with the stupid dialled to eleven. Starliner is meant to be reusable, except its components can’t even make it through one run uneventfully [1]. It’s mated to the Atlas V, a buggy, disposable stack that’s already been EOL’d [2]. NASA’s money would be so much better spent—even now!—on literally anything else. The amount of practical redundancy provided…

I think it's clear that Boeing, ULA, and all of the "old guard" space companies are still trying to catch up to the disruption from SpaceX and the ensuing boom of innovation that followed it. Let's face it - Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition. They were caught flat footed and had to scramble to catch up. Now we see the results of that - a capsule that's only partly baked…

> Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition

I may be wrong, but I believe both Starliner and Dragon were commissioned when Russia invaded Ukraine, thereby threatening NASA’s access to Soyuz.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#122

Post by dylan604 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #120
dylan604 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least this time it wasn't scrubbed for a Starliner issue. The capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues. I'm guessing the Boeing reps in capcom were wiping their brows

> capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues But Boeing is responsible for putting it on an Atlas V. Why?! There are fewer than thirty of them left! Why aren’t they practicing on a modern stack? I’ll eat my words if Starliner can rapidly transition to another booster. But given its track record in software alone, I’m incredibly sceptical.

Probably because Boeing is also part of ULA, so they have a vested interest in using their booster. Looks like "if it's a Boeing, I'm not going" isn't just for airplanes any more.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#123

Post by subsubzero »

orenlindsey wrote: post #119
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #116

Atlas V + Starliner vs Falcon + Dragon is SLS + Orion vs Starship with the stupid dialled to eleven. Starliner is meant to be reusable, except its components can’t even make it through one run uneventfully [1]. It’s mated to the Atlas V, a buggy, disposable stack that’s already been EOL’d [2]. NASA’s money would be so much better spent—even now!—on literally anything else. The amount of practical redundancy provided…

I think it's clear that Boeing, ULA, and all of the "old guard" space companies are still trying to catch up to the disruption from SpaceX and the ensuing boom of innovation that followed it. Let's face it - Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition. They were caught flat footed and had to scramble to catch up. Now we see the results of that - a capsule that's only partly baked…

I can't think of a larger moat in any industry where the leader has such a gigantic head start than spaceX. The "old guard" is so far behind why would the US Govt. or NASA give those companies any money now as it would be akin to setting it on fire. I mean spacex had 96 launches last year compared to ULAs 3. It just shows how much bureaucracy can just kill a companies innovation.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#124

Post by Laremere »

For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches: Launch scrubs happen /constantly/. It happens to everyone, and a single scrub is not a sign of problems with a program.

If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches, then it'll be another thing to add on to Starliner's list of difficulties fulfilling their contract with NASA. However a scrub or two is business as usual.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#125

Post by dboreham »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #121
orenlindsey wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's clear that Boeing, ULA, and all of the "old guard" space companies are still trying to catch up to the disruption from SpaceX and the ensuing boom of innovation that followed it. Let's face it - Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition. They were caught flat footed and had to scramble to catch up. Now we see the results of that - a capsule that's only partly baked…

> Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition I may be wrong, but I believe both Starliner and Dragon were commissioned when Russia invaded Ukraine, thereby threatening NASA’s access to Soyuz.

The first time presumably, in 2014.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#126

Post by groby_b »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #121
orenlindsey wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's clear that Boeing, ULA, and all of the "old guard" space companies are still trying to catch up to the disruption from SpaceX and the ensuing boom of innovation that followed it. Let's face it - Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition. They were caught flat footed and had to scramble to catch up. Now we see the results of that - a capsule that's only partly baked…

> Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition I may be wrong, but I believe both Starliner and Dragon were commissioned when Russia invaded Ukraine, thereby threatening NASA’s access to Soyuz.

You are I think wrong. IIRC commissioned ~2010-ish, and first (failed) flight test in 2019.

I do not think there is a world where NASA commissions something from Boeing, and it's kind of ready-ish 2 years later. There are meetings to be head! Congress folk to talk to! Overruns to be budgeted!

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#127

Post by imglorp »

subsubzero wrote: post #123
orenlindsey wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's clear that Boeing, ULA, and all of the "old guard" space companies are still trying to catch up to the disruption from SpaceX and the ensuing boom of innovation that followed it. Let's face it - Starliner would not have even been thought of without SpaceX bringing competition. They were caught flat footed and had to scramble to catch up. Now we see the results of that - a capsule that's only partly baked…

I can't think of a larger moat in any industry where the leader has such a gigantic head start than spaceX. The "old guard" is so far behind why would the US Govt. or NASA give those companies any money now as it would be akin to setting it on fire. I mean spacex had 96 launches last year compared to ULAs 3. It just shows how much bureaucracy can just kill a companies innovation.

Head start? Boeing has 108 years of vast aerospace history and culture.

The mistakes on this project are well summarized by an Ars article this week, mostly coming down to the well known management issues plus an inability to operate in a fixed price procurement setting; everything about their organization depended on cost plus structures.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/05/the-surprise-is-not-th...

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#128

Post by sebzim4500 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #116

Atlas V + Starliner vs Falcon + Dragon is SLS + Orion vs Starship with the stupid dialled to eleven. Starliner is meant to be reusable, except its components can’t even make it through one run uneventfully [1]. It’s mated to the Atlas V, a buggy, disposable stack that’s already been EOL’d [2]. NASA’s money would be so much better spent—even now!—on literally anything else. The amount of practical redundancy provided…

The Starliner stack is way less stupid than SLS.

It's less than 2x the price of SpaceX, whereas the SLS vs Falcon Heavy cost ratio is like 20x.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#129

Post by richardwhiuk »

Laremere wrote: post #124

For anyone who doesn't follow rocket launches: Launch scrubs happen /constantly/. It happens to everyone, and a single scrub is not a sign of problems with a program. If it takes multiple scrubs with months of delays before it finally launches, then it'll be another thing to add on to Starliner's list of difficulties fulfilling their contract with NASA. However a scrub or two is business as usual.

Weather scrubs are common, and not relevant to the success of a program.

GSE (Ground Servicing Equipment) are fairly common and fairly benign.

Valves on the rocket? Much, much more rare, and usually indicate some form of issue.

Re: Boeing Starliner's first crewed mission scrubbed

#130

Post by richardwhiuk »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #120
dylan604 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least this time it wasn't scrubbed for a Starliner issue. The capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues. I'm guessing the Boeing reps in capcom were wiping their brows

> capsule isn't responsible for the booster's valve issues But Boeing is responsible for putting it on an Atlas V. Why?! There are fewer than thirty of them left! Why aren’t they practicing on a modern stack? I’ll eat my words if Starliner can rapidly transition to another booster. But given its track record in software alone, I’m incredibly sceptical.

If it's worth it, they'll transition to Vulcan. But given the timeline of the ISS, unclear their will be demand.
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