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Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

noahpinion.blog

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Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, you mean like the Iranian attempt to assassinate John Bolton? (I mean, they didn't succeed, but does that make a real moral difference?)

Wasn't this a retaliation to the killings Israel and the US did of it's people? Also, I am keeping military leaders aside. I think most would agree that they sign up for a level of targeting civilians should be exempt from.

First, Bolton was a civilian. (And if you're going to say that "he's an involved civilian", well, so is the nuclear scientist. Iran doesn't have a nuclear program just to produce reactors.)

Second, of course it's a retaliation. But the killings Israel and the US did were also retaliations. And what they were retaliating for were also retaliations. If you condemn assassination-as-retaliation on the US and Israeli side, condemn it on Iran's side as well.

(And, note that if this is ever going to end, some people who are guilty of atrocities are going to have to be unpunished. That feels morally wrong. But both sides punishing the authors of atrocities leads to the current situation, which also doesn't feel very moral.)

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#122
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel needs the support of the US to continue operating as it does. The US support of Israel was already on a demographic timer, the unwavering support of boomer evangelicals is dying out with them and even the new evangelicals have an net unfavorable view of Israel. The Gaza conflict has simply sped up this already seemingly inevitable decline. Losing popular support causes a cascade loss of other support; politica…

You might be right about all of that. I think waning support from the US to Israel makes sense - most Israelis no longer support the current Israeli government! That said, US and Israeli interests are incredibly aligned. They have basically the same enemies (Iran, to some extent Russia and China, and Islamic fundamentalists in general), and the same outlook on the world. This isn't necessarily recognized by all citiz…

I view things through a realism/realpolitik lense. China was supposed to be US ally against Russia in order to have a Chinese - Russian conflict to keep both week. But China became too powerful in their own right and the Ukraine conflict has now created a strong alliance between China and Russia. Much of realpolitik is to keep both your enemies and allies in constant conflict with each other, even secretly pitting allies against other allies, and secretly weakening allies by promoting the worst in them. Suitably paranoid hegemons consider peace to be a time where countries build up strength for later use against them. On that basis I consider Israel an ally of convenience with the actual intent of using the 'unsinkable carrier' in preventing peace in the middle east and keeping the region in a weakened state. I guess unsinkable carrier is better than the reason of the baptists support of Israel. To remind people, it is so the jews can all die there in another holocaust to fulfil a biblical end-times prophecy and usher in the apocalypses where the baptists will ascend to heaven. Of course it's in Israel's interest to go along with both of these - for now.

The unprecedented support was assumed, the unprecedented pushback is new. And now Israel has been prevented from re-retaliating against Iran. This is a Suez Canal moment, where the 'special bond' between UK and US in effect ended and it led to a deep crisis of confidence in the UK and an deep sustained economic downturn. Unlike Israel the UK wasn't surrounded by hostile entities seeking their destruction.

Iran has been playing a long game for a long time, just like Israel was with Gaza. There may not be any good options left, I did think that a quick and decisive war against Iran to be the last viable option but Israel is apparently being prevented from doing so. On a balance of probabilities I don't think Israel would have won that conflict but there was at least some chance which I think is more of a chance than they have now.

I always viewed Oct7th incursion as a trap to invoke the exact response it did, I think by overestimating their support Israel has now found themselves in a position they're unable to get out of, hense trapped. I could be wrong, but I don't know how yet, and I am interested to see how it pans out. Sadly it seems that I wasn't wrong about Ukraines chances against Russia. Maybe a rapid de-escalation preceded by scapegoating Netanyahu is still possible?

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#123

Do we know for sure what has been reported is true, was it really only a few? Perhaps we should consider that the goal wasn't to do a lot of damage but instead saber-rattling. It would seem wise for Iran to both to satiate the demands of their constituents desire for retribution without triggering escalation. That Israel was told to 'take the win' by the US seems to be as good as result for Iran as one could possibly…

It's true. There's photo and video evidence plus confirmation from multiple separate sources (different countries). You don't fire 300+ missiles and drones just as a "show of force". It's expensive. Their stated goal was to overwhelm the missile defense system and it clearly failed. > The cost of the attack seemed to be 1/10th the cost of the defense so that does appear to be a net win for the attackers. Not really.…

>You don't fire 300+ missiles and drones just as a "show of force". It's expensive.

The reality is 300+ ordnances is chump change.

US attack on Syrian in 2018 consisted of 100 TLAMs/tomahawks with alleged ~70% interception rate on generations old RU hardware. The ability to intercept subsonic munitions at this point is basically known (hence why US pushing hard for stealth subsonics that are harder to engage), and being able to shoot down drones and cruise missiles is table stakes for any advanced military. Even more so with advanced notice. So Israel + co being able to take out 100% of subsonic munition is given, considering HOW MUCH MORE defense capabilities it has relative to Syria on 8x less land coverage*. The real kicker is the number of ballistics that slipped through, especially with US alleging 50% were duds that never launched properly. Assuming half of IR ballistics were duds, we're looking at ~10/50, 20%+ interception failures on small salvo (50-100 missiles is small), by one of the most sophisticated and dense anti missile networks in the world. The that ghetto salvo of 300 ordnances mix from Iran can penetrate that is the real news, how missile defense has surely improved, which is great against small states with limited capabilities, but not nearly enough for any adversary that can throw high 100s-1000s. Defense analysts suggest this was a calibrated retaliation because 300+ missiles and drones is really not that much.

* Should be noted a carrier strike group with defensive DDGs screening the carrier 100km+ away constitutes larger defensive perimetre larger than the size of Israel. Consider if a carrier group has more defense than the entire country of Israel with US+UK+Jordan help from local basing and DDGs. Consider what 10 ballistics do to a carrier. IR demonstrated that sending cheap garbage with 50% dud rate is enough to satuate the best defense that (a lot of) money can buy.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true. There's photo and video evidence plus confirmation from multiple separate sources (different countries). You don't fire 300+ missiles and drones just as a "show of force". It's expensive. Their stated goal was to overwhelm the missile defense system and it clearly failed. > The cost of the attack seemed to be 1/10th the cost of the defense so that does appear to be a net win for the attackers. Not really.…

>You don't fire 300+ missiles and drones just as a "show of force". It's expensive. The reality is 300+ ordnances is chump change. US attack on Syrian in 2018 consisted of 100 TLAMs/tomahawks with alleged ~70% interception rate on generations old RU hardware. The ability to intercept subsonic munitions at this point is basically known (hence why US pushing hard for stealth subsonics that are harder to engage), and be…

You're mixing cruise missiles and ballistic missiles which are very different things to intercept. Also comparing the volumes the US is able to fire with the volumes for an embargoed poor nation like Iran is probably not at the same scale.

300+ is more than was fired in a single attack against any country ever. Calling it small is disingenuous. It's possible that many of the duds weren't part of the initial tally published but it's unclear from the reports.

The significance here is the time-frame. This was done rapidly at a relatively short distance. As long as the defending side has enough missiles the volume doesn't matter (admittedly this is a big ask) what matters is the concurrent intensity required to overwhelm the defenses. But this is a pretty bad example regardless.

First, Israel is tiny. Its a smaller area to defend and that means fewer deployments/radars etc..

Iran is still just far enough to defend against. Missiles fired by their troops in Lebanon are much harder to intercept. There's just not as much time.

There was an intelligence warning and everyone was prepared.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You don't fire 300+ missiles and drones just as a "show of force". It's expensive. The reality is 300+ ordnances is chump change. US attack on Syrian in 2018 consisted of 100 TLAMs/tomahawks with alleged ~70% interception rate on generations old RU hardware. The ability to intercept subsonic munitions at this point is basically known (hence why US pushing hard for stealth subsonics that are harder to engage), and be…

You're mixing cruise missiles and ballistic missiles which are very different things to intercept. Also comparing the volumes the US is able to fire with the volumes for an embargoed poor nation like Iran is probably not at the same scale. 300+ is more than was fired in a single attack against any country ever. Calling it small is disingenuous. It's possible that many of the duds weren't part of the initial tally pub…

>cruise missiles and ballistic missile

No I'm not, I distinguished between the different ordnances and known interception probabilities, as known as what info is publically available if one follows the space. Cruise missiles / TLAMs / tomahawk equivalents, aka subsonic munitions, not ballistic mach1-mach 5 hypersonics, are "easy" to intercept. Even with 30 year old Russian hardware, S200-300s (as seen against US tomahawks in Syria). Older platforms shot down U2s 50 years ago, they can shoot down cruise missiles. Indeed all of those were shot down along with subsonic drones. Likely garbage subsonic drones, without any stealth shaping nor TERCOM/terrain hugging. Which is expected. What penetrated was ~10 ballistics, out of 50/100 depending on dud rate, ~10-20%. That's really the new revelation, we only know from past 10 years US FTM tests that missile defense has consistently intercepted against 1-2 Now we know againt allegedly crude Iranian ballistics (if dud rate true), with forwarning, 10%-20% made it through. Which is a great number mind you relative to where we were 10 years ago, but it's also pretty terrible stats with respect major assets like carrier survival. Or in IL case, IR calibrating future attacks to satuate defense. People see 80%-90% ballistic interception, are thinking missile defense strong, which it is true relative to powers that can't coordinate large strike packages (which granted is most of the world), but people who see 10-20% ballistic penetration see dead carriers and MIRVs deliverying nuclear payloads.

>300+ is more than was fired in a single attack against any country ever.

Coalition air strike during Gulf war hovered between 800-100 sorties per day, with planes carrying multipe munitions. Thousands of essentially uncontested fires. This is the first time a "decent" size salvo was directed at western missile defense. 300 mixed salvo is small, even smaller since we're really talking about 50-100 ballistics. Like US sent ~100 tomahawks against IIRC 3 targets in Syria with fraction of anti missile coverage. AKA even against shit tier Syria, US weaponeer were throwing 3 digits to shut down a few targets. Hence IMO 300 mixed ordnance against IL who is definitely 3x more capable than Syria capabilities is "calibrated" not to be big. Like IR probably expected more to penetrate, but just demonstrating a strike package like this was enough penetrate western/IL defense is enough, even if west wants to spin it as embarrassment.

>Calling it small is disingenuous.

It's small in the sense that 50-100 ballistics is close to floor of what modern anti missile defense networks are designed against, i.e. a loaded carrier group with 5-6 DDGs ~500 VLS tubes is designed to intercept 100s of ballistics. 50-100 ballistics maybe substantial relative to Iranian capabilities, but it's small relative to missile defense capabilities western (well US/IL) hardware is designed for. For reference PRC H6 salvo against a carrier group would have 200-300 antiship ballistics. Double that with hypersonics from land. That's what a large salvo a dense missile defense network is calibrated against. Another comparison, estimates of disabling PRC bases in SCS is like 300-400 tomahawks for just major installations on Spratlys and Woody Island. So measured against targets with less missile defense density than Israel, with forwarning, and assistance, the 300 ordnance mix IR planned, of which only 100 had serious chance of penetrating, is indeed "small".

> was done rapidly at a relatively short distance

By distance I think you mean terminal interception which is the easiest/most technically mature form of interception, but generally missile defense wants to move away from terminal, to more difficult midcourse because terminal is constrained by prepositioning of hardware, which since Israel is small is less of an issue. If anything because Israel is small, it has disproportionate density of sensors and overlap in shooters coverage. Like it shouldn't be controvesial to suggest Israel has the densest anti missile coverage in the world. More than most carrier deployment only gets 1-2 DDGs escorts - 180 VLS of which only a fraction is dedicated to missile defense. Israel small size = almost any hardware in it, is within interception range, especially considering they'll be prepositioned against IR direction. IMO that's really how this event should be interpretted. How the geographically densest and most advanced missile defense network in the world allowed 10-20% of ballistics from sanctioned country with limited industrial base through.

>has enough missiles the volume doesn't matter

Which is really crux, this is the unknown unknown territory. If IR missiles penetrated, either 10/50 went through before IL ran out of inteceptors, meaning IL only had enough inteceptors for 40-80 or so ballistics, or interceptor performance is 80-90% effective. Either way, IR showed it can penetrate IL missile defense with pretty medioore hardware (again relative to what missile defense is designed against), without hezbollah running interference. It's not a win in the sense that they probably expected more damage, but it's not a loss either considering what it revealed about current state of the art missile defense and the implications there of. Like PLA bomber/rocketforce weaponeers are adjusting their spread sheet formulas. Question is which direction.

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