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Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

nytimes.com

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Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#121

Post by cko »

lossolo wrote: post #100
mmarq wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A flat that cost 500-600K in Berlin would be rented out at 1000€ a month, that can’t increase more than the rent control allows. A mortgage would cost 3 times as much. So you’d be better off renting and investing the deposit, the stamp duty, notary costs and the 2000€ you save each month in government bonds.

Are you sure about these numbers? As ROI doesn't make any sense to me in context of the new investments built solely for rent. How does it work?

Yes, check Numbeo for Berlin, Frankfurt, etc. Then look at the tier 1 and 2 cities in China.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

The ROI absolutely does not make sense but it's real. A large portion of the world believe that the only two investment classes are real estate and government bonds.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#123

Post by lock-the-spock »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #66
scotty79 wrote: post #14

When EU was faced with insurmountable competition in the global food market they set up common agricultural policy and straight up fueled their agriculture with tax money since then making EU number one global exporter of food and beverages. I wonder what obstacles there are for doing the exactly same in another key sector that is manufacturing means of energy production. And chip manufacturing in the future probably…

The main obstacle is that the EU became deeply neoliberal in its thinking, judging state subsidies as worse than slave labour. For example, when the US rolled out the cornucopia of state protectionism that is the IRA the EU has mainly responded by saying "actually, that's not very free marked of you USA".

The EU has its own subsidy programmes as well but it is a lot more complex. You need 27 governments to agree to make something happen, from 400.000 people Malta to 80.000.000 million people Germany. The small countries are terrified to be squashed by German and French power to give subsidies to their own national company, ruining the single market.

In fact you have the same issue in the US but the states have no direct say, and statistics are not done the same way - so you don't see the impact the same way and don't have discussions the same way.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#124

Post by faeriechangling »

nradov wrote: post #55
faeriechangling wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also probable per capita energy usage will decline no matter what we do because affordable fossil fuel stocks are due to collapse before the population does. Increasing per capita energy usage as a policy goal seems profoundly unwise to me, even without accounting for global warming, and if we do it becomes even less wise.

Throughout human history, increases in per capita energy consumption have been directly coupled with increases in living standards. Perhaps we will see some decoupling between those metrics, but I doubt it. And while there are good environmental reasons to reduce fossil fuel use we are in no danger of running out of affordable stocks. Alarmists have been predicting "peak oil" for decades but the extraction industry k…

I think if the future of affordable oil relies on us continuously inventing ourselves out of the problem, that implies a great deal of danger.

Just because the shale revolution embarrassed the peak oil crowd doesn’t guarantee shale revolutions happening over and over. If you ignore shale and look at conventional oil reserves several of the peak oil alarmists were essentially correct in their timing. Now shale production is seemingly plateauing.

Maybe we’ll end up with a bitumen or natural gas revolution next but I’m sceptical. I think we’re kind of fucked honestly and only attacking this on the demand side will save us, I don’t see green energy as saving us or nuclear either.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#125

Post by gostintheshell »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #48
SonicTheSith wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even older homes, compared to the average US home is highly insulated. I live in an Apartment building from 1964, got doubled sided windows, and during the winter I do not need to turn on any heating on 98% of the days. And the quality of housing there is no difference between owning and renting.... Now even the worst insulated homes, are not that far off. Sure there are some very very bad apartments for rent, but th…

>Even older homes, compared to the average US home is highly insulated. Why are you comparing apples to oranges? Germans don't care what it's like in America since it doesn't lower their energy bills. America can afford to be wasteful with energy, since it's energy independent, has much cheaper energy than Germany, including oil, gas, and nuclear, and has higher incomes. Germany doesn't. Cheap Russian gas is gone and…

There's apparently nothing worth comparing Germany to? They were reducing energy waste even when they had cheap gas, that makes them less part of the energy waste correlates to prosperity argument than the US and hence less about per capita energy use being a good thing.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#126

Post by rasz »

lacker wrote: post #97

Is China really selling solar panels at below the cost of production? There seem to be a number of Germans making this claim, but the article never really tries to analyze whether this is true or not. It seems like a big difference whether China can forever sell solar panels at current prices or cheaper, or whether they will eventually jack up the prices because this is unsustainable.

Below German cost of manufacturing for sure. I remember laughing at der8auer explaining how he must sell a bend piece of CNCed aluminum at ~20 euro because thats how much it costs to make in DE, while same piece of metal can be ordered from JLC for couple dollars including shipping manufactured in single quantities.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#127

Post by audunw »

Rinzler89 wrote: post #54
puszczyk wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people in Germany can't afford to buy an apartment let alone build a new house and you're taking as if your situation si representative for the average German. - 2.84 million people in Germany were able to afford a new car in 2023 [0] - 1.25 million dwellings were constructed in 10y 2011-2021 [1] - The homeownership rate in Germany is very low compared to other countries but still around 50% [2] While parent's…

>Parent commented on their energy usage change over the years, not on wealth or problems. Where does you comment come from? Because policies on being eco-friendly is a matter of wealth. Wealthy countries and wealthy people are less effective by switching off fossil fuel dependency and can afford to be green without major sacrifices to their finances or their lifestyle. Poorer countries and people are hit the hardest.

But a car is one area where “trickle down” actually works. If you want to get affordable second hand energy efficient EVs into the market.. someone has to buy new EVs. Now. Preferably as many as possible.

We’re also rapidly heading towards the possibility of EVs with the same purchase price as an ICE. As long as you don’t need long range.

LFP batteries, motors with little or no neodymium magnets, power electronics are getting fairly cheap, 48V is enabling less use of copper, … we probably have all the tech we need, but since car companies can sell all the EVs they can make anyway, they’re still focusing on the higher end higher margin models.

Similar thing goes for heat pumps. They were pretty expensive 10-15 years ago. Now half my neighbours have gotten one, and many of them have very average jobs.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#128

Post by guappa »

lenerdenator wrote: post #114
guappa wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA is not in a position to criticize… All of the computers are made abroad. I doubt banning Huawei will solve anything, if a foreign power has decided to inject malicious instructions into the hardware.

China spent the first 15 years it had with significant computing resources in-country using them to hack the rest of the world. Once you do that, there is no restoring trust, no matter how hard you try.

Why do we trust to buy every computer then?

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#129

Post by mmarq »

cko wrote: post #120
Rinzler89 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Owning gives you the advantage of not flushing away a third of your income down the drain and instead owning something that's yours by the time you retire instead of paying your landlord's lease and then retiring in poverty as you won't be able to afford rent on your pension. Have you seen new rent prices right now? It's definitely not "extremely cheap". It's only extremely cheap for those in grandfathered contracts.

If I owned a flat free and clear with a low rental yield as in many German cities (like 2-3%), I would sell the place to someone and then rent it from that person, then invest the proceeds into stocks. People are overly obsessed with home ownership and being free and clear as soon as possible so they blindly repeat adages like "paying the landlord's rent" and "flushing your money away" without running the numbers. Wo…

Anglo-Saxons are not obsessed with home ownership, they have to own their homes because renting in English speaking countries is hell. My neighbours change every other year, sometimes every 6 months, because the landlord increases their rent every year, evicts them when they ask for repairs (while expecting them to cook with a 10-15 year old oven that blows the power every time they set it to more than 180 degrees) and treats them like shit. I’m talking of people that pay in excess of 3K per month, normal people with normal salaries live like animals if they are renting.

Re: Germany's solar panel industry, once a leader, is getting squeezed

#130

Post by IneffablePigeon »

phil21 wrote: post #104
helsinkiandrew wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just you and your electric car - Germany has been the world leader in increasing energy efficiency for several decades - 35% reduction in housing and 12% in industry since 2000. I think the national target is a further 30% reduction by 2030. https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/publications/efficiency-trends-p...

What could Germany have accomplished otherwise if they had not focused on increasing efficiency? Efficiency in of itself is not a useful work product. To game theory it - if you had an unlimited source of literally free energy, no one would waste time or effort on gaining efficiency. They would be working on making new products and services. Every person or monetary unit working towards efficiency gains means those r…

Did it focus on it? Most efficiency measures are cash positive after a few years. My LED bulbs paid for themselves 3 times over at least by now. That’s before you even get to the positive externalities.
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