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Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

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Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, the Model Y was the best selling vehicle in 2023, regardless of powertrain. https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling...

car, not vehicle. The best selling vehicle in the US in 2023 by a long shot is the Ford F-series truck. Car and Driver also says the Rav4 outside the Model Y, fwiw. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

Your article doesn't contradict their argument. Their link is for worldwide sales, yours is US only.

Further, that top spot is not for a specific Ford truck, but for all F-series trucks put together. That's an apples to oranges comparison.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

car, not vehicle. The best selling vehicle in the US in 2023 by a long shot is the Ford F-series truck. Car and Driver also says the Rav4 outside the Model Y, fwiw. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...

Your article doesn't contradict their argument. Their link is for worldwide sales, yours is US only. Further, that top spot is not for a specific Ford truck, but for all F-series trucks put together. That's an apples to oranges comparison.

it doesn't. it just depends on how you slice the pie to see what you want to see.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota initiated the hybrid as a modern platform, and they continue make the best selling hybrid in the world (Prius). But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance, they have stuck to hybrids rather than full electric and all the extremely costly low lifespan batteries that go into them. Speaking as a 2004 Prius daily driver, th…

> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance Then why did they go all in on hydrogen cars? https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now...

"All in" is a very strange way to describe a multinational corporation producing in the single digit thousands of an item. They tried something, it hasn't panned out yet, they're sticking to what they know works in the mean time.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Toyota initiated the hybrid as a modern platform, and they continue make the best selling hybrid in the world (Prius). But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance, they have stuck to hybrids rather than full electric and all the extremely costly low lifespan batteries that go into them. Speaking as a 2004 Prius daily driver, th…

> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road and the used market is not filled with "broken EVs requiring expensive maintenance". The opposite seems to statistically be the case: the used market for EVs is "barren" because the cars don't need expensive mainte…

> The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road

Teslas haven't even existed as a car producing company for as long as most cars last, Toyotas in particular. Model 3's certainly not.

> The used market for EVs is "barren"

I just pulled up hundreds in a 10 mile radius of me on craigslist. Probably most needing $20,000 battery services.

> You've been lead to believe some interesting misinformation

No, you.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hybrid. I'm nitpicking, but current full electric Toyota cars are not that good or popular.

Electric cars are not that popular, period. Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.

What I meant is that Toyota electric cars are not popular inside the electric category. From range to charging speeds, they're behind other brands.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road and the used market is not filled with "broken EVs requiring expensive maintenance". The opposite seems to statistically be the case: the used market for EVs is "barren" because the cars don't need expensive mainte…

Do you have citations? I can think of alternative & plausible explanations: - the used car industry is just barren post-pandemic. Prices are up and inventory is super low [1] - EVs are generally not that old! Why put a BEV up as a used car when it's just a few years old? The average age of a used car is 6.1 years (according to CBC in Sep-2023) [2]. Further, that 'used car' age is up from 4 years, which further indica…

That CNBC article points out one of the big sea changes in the fast recent jumps from a used car average of 3 years (for decades prior to ~2017) to 4 years (prior to 2019) to 6 years is a big change by rental car companies to hold rental fleets longer. The biggest sea change for rental companies over the last few years has been a switch to a higher balance of BEVs in their fleets. It certainly seems to me to be causative, the used car age average is rising for the first time in my lifetime just as BEV ownership is rising doesn't seem to be a correlative coincidence and more indirect evidence that the BEV first owner lifetime is higher than historic ICE averages. (Possibly much higher given that 4 to 6.1 year jump in just one calendar year.)

The early EVs have passed their 10 year marks. Some are closer to 15 years. There's a very long tail of BEVs already on the road. The only models that statistically have shown "battery degradation" enough to remark on have been the early model years of the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf before both companies invested in active thermal management of their batteries. So far "to remark on" was "noticeable compared to factory spec", but most of those batteries remained in first use (as car batteries). I've heard of Nissan Leaf battery replacements as a mini-industry, but not due to battery degradation, due to massive jumps in density upgrading the early Leafs to larger range than their original spec. There doesn't seem to be much of a market yet for Tesla battery replacements and most of the numbers thrown around are speculation and/or misinformation.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#127
post #56

Globalization is rolling back. It's about to be boom times in America as long as the politicians from all parties can actually move from one troth to another and actually pass bills.

Seems to be almost daily news stories about huge capital investment in manufacturing in the US, a couple billion here, a couple billion there. Was I just blind to these 5-10 years ago?

Geopolitics: China's sudden shift to authoritarianism under the new emperor has everyone fleeing for the exits as the US and Europe abandon the project to bring China into the club.

Economics, Neoliberalism is dead. The pandemic killed it. Policy makers well understand the economy can tolerate a lot of disruption.

Politics: Dispossessed voters turning to fascism has sharpened politicians and sane business leaders minds.

Global Warning and new Tech: Solar, wind, batteries, and the need to faze out fossil fuels creates risks and opportunities. Risks will be born by those that try business as usual.

Increased automation: Low skilled dirt cheap labor is less important than it was 20-30 years ago. That changes the balance point between low cost offshored labor and the pain in the ass that offshoring is.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs? Their history of engineering and execution. What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up". Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an i…

What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind. To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.

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Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#129
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars are not that popular, period. Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.

Hybrids have basically all the possible parts that can break.

But Toyota’s hybrids have a very good reputation regarding longevity and low cost of ownership.

Re: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do believe that Tesla's success in the last decade was in large part due to the fact it was the only technology company that could use all the money people were throwing at technology companies.

Softbank's belief was that throwing capital would just make things work. But from wework to many other of their startups shows its not the case. Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry. Say their bet on the Shanghai factory, despite obvious IP leak risks and spawning deadly competitors like BYD, was their only choice to reach scale at a low cost.

We have known for decades that normally doesn't work. However we also have a few exceptions that tease people into thinking it works enough - or that they can identify the few winners (I'm not sure what). Amazon.com at one time was the place people were throwing more good capital after bad - I was convinced this was the case in the late 1990s.
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