Earlier quoted context omitted.
> This approach is generally referred to the calorie-in/calorie-out (CICO) model. While true to an extent, this perspective is too simplistic, given one key fact: leptin is primarily produced in adipose tissue [1]. This fact means body fat is actually an endocrine system organ. This part I think needs more explanation. The reason calories-in/calories-out model is too simplistic (I would call it almost useless if not…
CICO doesn’t work across individuals for reason you outline (just because I lose weight with a certain level of calories, doesn’t mean you will, etc.) But for a single individual, working to establish your base metabolic rate by counting every calorie and weighing yourself regularly, you can always find a way to be successful with the CICO model. If you establish a baseline that your metabolic rate is (say) 2000 calo…
Imagine two individuals who both both need 2,500 calories/day to feel satiated, but the second individual stores anything above 1,500/day as fat, and a second individual stores anything above 3,000 as fat. The first person will constantly be fighting his body to not overeat and will feel hungry constantly. The second individual can eat to fullness and not gain weight.
Some men , particularly the formerly obese, have such slow metabolisms that anything stored above 1,200-1,700/day is stored as fat despite weighing 170 pounds or so, from reading personal accounts here and on Reddit. This is also why bariatric surgery patients regain weight and become obese again despite only eating around 1,200-1,500 calories/day. These people basically got short-changed when it comes to metabolism genes. If there is a famine, they will outlive everyone. But in abundance they become fat very easily. This does not answer why there are more obese people today compared to in the past, but there is still probably a genetic component nonetheless.
And on the other extreme are people who can be very slim despite eating a normal amount of calories or only slightly less than 2,000. These people are much rarer, as it's disadvantageous from an evolutionary perspective to have an inefficient metabolism, but they exist in the same way very tall or short people exist by virtue of phenotypic variance.