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GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

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121–130 of 310 posts

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#121
post #79

Are there any experts around that can chime in on the possible impacts of this technology if widely adopted?

It doesnt predict rainfall so i doubt most of us will actually care about it until then. Still it depends on input data (the current state of weather etc). How are we supposed to accurately model the weather at every point in the world? Especially when tech bro Joe living in San Fran expects things to be accurate to a meter within his doorstep

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#123

In case someone is looking for historical weather data for ML training and prediction, I created an open-source weather API which continuously archives weather data. Using past and forecast data from multiple numerical weather models can be combined using ML to achieve better forecast skill than any individual model. Because each model is physically bound, the resulting ML model should be stable. See: https://open-me…

That’s awesome! I’ve hooked something similar up to my service - https://dropory.com which predicts which day it will rain the least for any location

Based on historical data!

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#126

In case someone is looking for historical weather data for ML training and prediction, I created an open-source weather API which continuously archives weather data. Using past and forecast data from multiple numerical weather models can be combined using ML to achieve better forecast skill than any individual model. Because each model is physically bound, the resulting ML model should be stable. See: https://open-me…

this is really cool, I've been looking for good snow-related weather APIs for my business. I tried looking on the site, but how does it work, being coordinates-based?

I'm used to working with different weather stations, e.g. seeing different snowfall prediction at the bottom of a mountain, halfway up, and at the top, where the coordinates are quite similar.

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#129
post #104

Beyond the difficulty of running calculations (or even accurately measuring the current state), is there a reason to believe weather is unpredictable? I would imagine we probably have a solid mathematical model of how weather behaves, so given enough resources to measure and calculate, could you, in theory, predict the daily weather going 10 years into the future? Or is there something inherently “random” there?

What you're describing is effectively how climate models work; we run a physical model which solves the equations that govern how the atmosphere works out forward in time for very long time integrations. You get "daily weather" out as far as you choose to run the model. But this isn't a "weather forecast." Weather forecasting is an initial value problem - you care a great deal about how the weather will evolve from t…

is it possible to self-correct, looking at initial value errors in the past? Is it too hard to prescribe the error in the initial value?

Re: GraphCast: AI model for weather forecasting

#130

In case someone is looking for historical weather data for ML training and prediction, I created an open-source weather API which continuously archives weather data. Using past and forecast data from multiple numerical weather models can be combined using ML to achieve better forecast skill than any individual model. Because each model is physically bound, the resulting ML model should be stable. See: https://open-me…

Is there somewhere to see historical forecasts? So not "the weather on 25 December 2022 was such and such" but rather "on 20 December 2022 the forecast for 25 December 2022 was such and such"

Not yet, but I am working towards it: https://github.com/open-meteo/open-meteo/issues/206
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