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Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

phys.org

121–130 of 163 posts

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#121
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh. I'm adding it to my to-read queue then, and bumping Larry Niven up in the queue in general too. I've been meaning to read his works ever since I learned about Known Space / Star Trek connection.

I liked the Niven/Pournell books and I still think back to them often enough. The Mote in God's Eye and Lucifer's Hammer I think I read back to back. It's been a long time but I really enjoyed them when I was younger.

The misogyny in Lucifer's Hammer did not age well at all. Mote is not as in-your-face with it. I do like all the different kinds of moties.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#122

We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.

Or move towards no grid? Solar, batteries, local power storage facilities (like pumps) and backup generators perhaps using natural gas.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#123

I wonder what the health effects to the plants/animals/humans were (if any) due to that?

I had a similar thought, if high energy particles damage/affect DNA could these events contribute in some way to a period of more pronounced speciation?

Just moving from a seashore to foothills of a mountain will have a vastly larger effect.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#124
post #8
post #2

>A similar solar storm today would be catastrophic for modern technological society—potentially wiping out telecommunications and satellite systems, causing massive electricity grid blackouts, and costing us billions of pounds. I wonder if any country has a disaster recovery plan for this kind on event.

We could always fall back to running the internet with RFC1149 https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc1149

A 1Tb usb on a bird could give decent bandwidth!

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#125

Google says we can have 1-4 days of warning for this kind of thing. Is there any approach to circuit breaking that can help appliances against such an event?

Move everything into an old multi story carpark that has bad radio reception?

I love murphy’s law arbitrage

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#126

We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.

but consider the standard used for water grid 'hardening': 1-in-100-year flood

Mitigation ≠ total prevention

It's really not that hard to see this isn't a binary choice.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#127

We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.

Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society.

If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen.

I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, the grid is out for a few days and we're back up and running a few days later.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even a Carrington-level event, which refers to a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in 1859, is indeed a concern for modern electrical infrastructure. During such an event, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) could flow through electrical grids, potentially overheating transformers and causing them to fail. These GICs are particularly harmful to transformers because they can lead to half-cycle saturation,…

> geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) could flow through electrical grids, potentially overheating transformers and causing them to fail. yes, but such currents are typically measured in milliamps or, during the biggest storms, amps. Most utility scale transformers would be needing DC currents of the order of thousands or tens of thousands of amperes before failure. Even then, overheat sensors would detect such a…

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are often measured in amps rather than milliamps, and their values can vary significantly depending on the specifics of the geomagnetic storm and the electrical grid. During the 1989 geomagnetic storm that led to the collapse of the Hydro-Québec power system, GICs of hundreds of amperes were measured. While transformers are designed to handle thousands of amperes of alternating current, they are generally not designed to handle direct current like GICs, which can lead to transformer saturation and increased reactive power demand.

Now, let’s talk about resonances. The electric grid can have resonant frequencies due to the combination of inductive, capacitive, and resistive elements. Resonances can cause the system to magnify the effects of incoming disturbances, much like how a tuning fork resonates at its natural frequency. When a geomagnetic storm induces currents in the Earth, those currents generate a magnetic field that interacts with the magnetic fields of transformers and transmission lines. If the frequency of these geomagnetic disturbances happens to match or come close to a resonant frequency of the electrical grid, the amplitude of the induced currents can be significantly magnified.

To be specific, resonances can occur in multiple parts of the system:

1. Transformer windings have their own resonant frequencies, at which the impedance becomes high, leading to larger voltage across the windings for the same amount of GICs.

2. Long transmission lines can have characteristic impedances that interact with the impedances of transformers and other elements to create resonant circuits, thus amplifying the GICs in localized regions.

3. Harmonic resonances can occur when nonlinear elements like transformers generate harmonics that coincide with resonant frequencies in the grid, thereby magnifying the effective GICs.

So, even though individual transformers may be able to handle small DC currents without immediate failure, the presence of resonances and the cumulative effects across a large, interconnected grid make GICs a non-trivial concern.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#129
post #127

We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.

Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society. If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen. I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, t…

Y2K supports the point that something should be done. The reason nothing terrible happened is because lots investment was made in remediating the issue.

Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings

#130
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society. If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen. I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, t…

Y2K supports the point that something should be done. The reason nothing terrible happened is because lots investment was made in remediating the issue.

I doubt anything in the electrical grid or that mattered actually cared about the two digit year being 00. Best case scenario some bills were going to be messed up / reissued.

SCADA controlled water pumps never cared what the date was, maybe it ran on the cycle for the wrong day and the backup kicked in, big whoop.

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