Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oh. I'm adding it to my to-read queue then, and bumping Larry Niven up in the queue in general too. I've been meaning to read his works ever since I learned about Known Space / Star Trek connection.
I liked the Niven/Pournell books and I still think back to them often enough. The Mote in God's Eye and Lucifer's Hammer I think I read back to back. It's been a long time but I really enjoyed them when I was younger.
Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
121–130 of 163 posts
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#122We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#123I wonder what the health effects to the plants/animals/humans were (if any) due to that?
I had a similar thought, if high energy particles damage/affect DNA could these events contribute in some way to a period of more pronounced speciation?
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#124>A similar solar storm today would be catastrophic for modern technological society—potentially wiping out telecommunications and satellite systems, causing massive electricity grid blackouts, and costing us billions of pounds. I wonder if any country has a disaster recovery plan for this kind on event.
We could always fall back to running the internet with RFC1149 https://datatracker.ietf.org/doc/html/rfc1149
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#125Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#126We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.
but consider the standard used for water grid 'hardening': 1-in-100-year flood
It's really not that hard to see this isn't a binary choice.
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#127We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.
If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen.
I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, the grid is out for a few days and we're back up and running a few days later.
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Even a Carrington-level event, which refers to a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in 1859, is indeed a concern for modern electrical infrastructure. During such an event, geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) could flow through electrical grids, potentially overheating transformers and causing them to fail. These GICs are particularly harmful to transformers because they can lead to half-cycle saturation,…
> geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) could flow through electrical grids, potentially overheating transformers and causing them to fail. yes, but such currents are typically measured in milliamps or, during the biggest storms, amps. Most utility scale transformers would be needing DC currents of the order of thousands or tens of thousands of amperes before failure. Even then, overheat sensors would detect such a…
Now, let’s talk about resonances. The electric grid can have resonant frequencies due to the combination of inductive, capacitive, and resistive elements. Resonances can cause the system to magnify the effects of incoming disturbances, much like how a tuning fork resonates at its natural frequency. When a geomagnetic storm induces currents in the Earth, those currents generate a magnetic field that interacts with the magnetic fields of transformers and transmission lines. If the frequency of these geomagnetic disturbances happens to match or come close to a resonant frequency of the electrical grid, the amplitude of the induced currents can be significantly magnified.
To be specific, resonances can occur in multiple parts of the system:
1. Transformer windings have their own resonant frequencies, at which the impedance becomes high, leading to larger voltage across the windings for the same amount of GICs.
2. Long transmission lines can have characteristic impedances that interact with the impedances of transformers and other elements to create resonant circuits, thus amplifying the GICs in localized regions.
3. Harmonic resonances can occur when nonlinear elements like transformers generate harmonics that coincide with resonant frequencies in the grid, thereby magnifying the effective GICs.
So, even though individual transformers may be able to handle small DC currents without immediate failure, the presence of resonances and the cumulative effects across a large, interconnected grid make GICs a non-trivial concern.
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#129We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.
Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society. If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen. I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, t…
Re: Researchers identify largest ever solar storm in 14k-year-old tree rings
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society. If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen. I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, t…
Y2K supports the point that something should be done. The reason nothing terrible happened is because lots investment was made in remediating the issue.
SCADA controlled water pumps never cared what the date was, maybe it ran on the cycle for the wrong day and the backup kicked in, big whoop.