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Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

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Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#121

Post by theshrike79 »

RosanaAnaDana wrote: post #9
itsoktocry wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 5sec 0-60. When did this become a metric that mattered to any normal person? Do you even know the 0-60 of your car? Do you realize how quick 5 second is to 60mph? Most sports cars of a generation ago couldn't touch that. Why do you feel it needs to be faster? It's plain dangerous to inexperienced drivers.

Idk what the 0-60 of my leaf is but I beat every one off the line when I want to. It makes me far more comfortable on the freeway to get all the power I want on demand to quickly and safely make a maneuver. I would never have considered it before owning an EV, but now that I have one, I'll definitely be considerate of it in my next EV purchase. Previously I had only had crappy used ICE vehicles, and the acceleration…

All EVs have crazy fast 0-20mph or 0-30mph speeds because you can just floor it and get instant torque without resorting to launch control modes.

Even my older model Ioniq is fast enough off the lights to trigger people with German ICE cars into thinking I'm trying to "beat" them somehow. Even though I just pressed down the accelerator to get up to speed in a prompt manner.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#122

Post by theshrike79 »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #13
rgbrenner wrote: post #3

I see way too many Toyota battery articles for a company that can barely put out an EV. They're all promises... in the future, they swear they'll beat everyone, but they just released a Lexus EV at $60k with 196mi range and 5sec 0-60.

They're trying to Osborne effect their competitors. Don't buy our competitors EVs, something much better is coming soon we promise...

Toyota has insane brand loyalty, at least over here.

There are people who have driven cars for 40-50 years and every car has been a Toyota. These are the people they're trying to keep.

"Our Super Great EV is just around the corner, but here's a new Toyota Corolla Hybrid for you for the mean time"

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#123

Post by theshrike79 »

d0gbread wrote: post #51
hedora wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't hold my breath for something called a "Corolla". Their roadmap is a big gaping hole for the next 3 years. However, this exists, and kind of looks like a tall Corolla: https://www.toyota.com/bz4x/

What's the model called? I think someone accidentally base64 encoded it.

We just call it the Burzum =)

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#124

Post by theshrike79 »

_hypx wrote: post #74
acdha wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The real issue is that BEVs are not cost effective right now, and show no sign of that happening anytime soon. That must come as quite a surprise to all of the people who’ve already found them to be cost effective. Did you mean something like “gargantuan e-SUVs and trucks”?

That either involve subsidies or significant sacrifices. The problem is that right now, a hybrid cost around $25k. It takes something like a decade of driving before you can reach cost parity, and that is assuming you have access to cheap electricity. e-SUVs and trucks are even more non-competitive.

I'm finding it really hard to justify even the best hybrid.

Gas over here is currently 2€/litre. Looking at my current market rate electricity price, it's 1.15c/kWh.

Let's pretend your $25k hybrid uses 3l/100km. That's 6€/100km.

And let's take the most power hungry hunk of metal they attached an EV drivetrain into and it needs 25kWh/100km. That's about 0.30€/100km.

The electricity price would have to go up 25-30x permanently for an hybrid to be cost effective per driven km.

I didn't even take into account the fact that for many EV brands the required maintenance to keep the manufacturer warranty is "swap air filter, update software, maybe fill up the window washing fluid if it's low"

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#125

Post by theshrike79 »

_hypx wrote: post #102
acdha wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gas taxes are about half of what they’re supposed to be to find road maintenance. The rest is subsidized out of general fund revenues. Re: maintenance costs every reputable analyst says that EVs are significantly cheaper throughout the entire lifetime of the vehicle, even when you factor in the higher tire wear and tear. That doesn’t factor in the disruption cost of having to get service, either, which adds up with e…

That's a lot of wishful thinking. Certainly, in places like California and Europe, they're much higher than they can be justified. Gas taxes feed into the general fund instead. Maintenance costs are just marketing. The moment you factor in battery replacement costs, the advantage collapses. BEV companies just pretend this never happens. Catalytic convertor theft is not that common. This is more wishful thinking.

Do you factor in timing belt costs, clutch costs, oil changes and a full engine overhaul cost to the ICE side?

Very very few EV batteries actually need replacing. We have statistics from Nissan and Tesla from over a decade ago and even those ancient batteries have performed better than expected, retaining 80%+ of capacity.

Newer batteries are better.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#126

Post by _hypx »

theshrike79 wrote: post #119
_hypx wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who have actually driven FCEVs will tell you they work basically identical to BEVs. They make it a point to mention that there are no problems with the cars themselves. In reality, the moment hydrogen becomes comparably as cheap and available as gasoline or diesel, it is likely the end of the BEV. It is the availability of fuel that is the fundamental problem right now.

The availability will be the biggest problem for the next decade, unless governments force it with huge subsidies. The EU has mandated that every "major highway" must have a H2 depot every 2-300km, can't remember exactly. But still you need to get it made somewhere, preferably not from natural gas, because that's just stupid. It needs to be transported to a station, by truck, on a regular schedule or it'll stop worki…

Pipelines are likely the cheapest option, with trucks for last mile deliveries.

The problem with "power outlets" is that they're heavily dependent on fossil fuel power plants. Since it is an unpredictable variable load, even more so than you think. Which is why it is really a transitional solution. From the beginning, it was about replacing distributed emissions with centralized ones, usually far away from cities. At some point, it became this green fantasy that could seriously replace fossil fuels. It is highly unlikely to do so in reality. Even BEVs will need hydrogen power plants to solve variable grid load problems. Eventually, you'll realize that hydrogen is a mandatory part of the problem, and the battery becomes redundant if not a negative.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#127

Post by rasz »

bestham wrote: post #95
jbm wrote: post #2

1000 km battery, 10 minute charge? I'm suspicious for many reasons. If they can't build their prime hybrids — or even supply gas Siennas in Canada — I'm not very confident about their manufacturing in the mid-term. I hope I'm wrong.

Toyota is one of the top innovators in the world when it comes to manufacturing. The reason Tesla is able to produce millions of Model 3 is partly because they are applying the lessons learned from the Toyota production system (TPS). Toyota have a lot of experience of electrification, they just have not produced a lot of vehicles with a charging plug. Toyota will deliver EVs that good enough to compete with all other…

Craftsmanship? Yes.

Conservatism and playing it safe resulting in overbuilding and longevity? Yes.

Management? Disaster!

Here is one of their more recent ~$1B blunders "How Japan's Greatest Supercar Flourished and Failed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdVWKpqZaXg LFA was delayed by at least 5 years and released just as Toyota announced pulling out of F1 in December 2009 after spending $1.6B there with no wins. Probably the reason they stopped developing sports cars altogether and resigned to reselling repackaged Subarus and BMW.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#128

Post by _hypx »

theshrike79 wrote: post #125
_hypx wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a lot of wishful thinking. Certainly, in places like California and Europe, they're much higher than they can be justified. Gas taxes feed into the general fund instead. Maintenance costs are just marketing. The moment you factor in battery replacement costs, the advantage collapses. BEV companies just pretend this never happens. Catalytic convertor theft is not that common. This is more wishful thinking.

Do you factor in timing belt costs, clutch costs, oil changes and a full engine overhaul cost to the ICE side? Very very few EV batteries actually need replacing. We have statistics from Nissan and Tesla from over a decade ago and even those ancient batteries have performed better than expected, retaining 80%+ of capacity. Newer batteries are better.

This isn't the 1970s anymore. Very few cars have major repair costs from engine problems. People are just creating an elaborate narrative of cost savings.

Insurance cost data doesn't seem to bore this out. BEVs have pretty decent maintenance costs.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#129

Post by _hypx »

theshrike79 wrote: post #120
cogman10 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would really like to know more about why Hydrogen vehicles did not take off as much as electric. Lots of reasons. So, here's some off the top of my head. * Infrastructure - There's no hydrogen distribution system in place. Further, hydrogen is trickier to distribute/store. It's not like gas where you can just have a big empty metal drum that you fill and discharge. Consider, for example, that as gases expand they…

> You can't just specify a diameter and go from there. You must create a seal to prevent hydrogen from leaking from the pump. It's doable, but also dangerous if you get it wrong. Imagine the amount of people who mess up refueling an ICE vehicle. Now extrapolate that to H2 refuelling where we're dealing with a highly flammable gas in extremely high pressures. > Electricity is already distributed. The fact that you are…

Thousands of people refuel with hydrogen regularly. There is no evidence of real danger.

The problem isn't that you can't live with a BEV, it's that you don't have to. People are "fighting the last war." There is a way of making an EV that has zero compromises compared to ICE cars. BEVs in that context are coming obsolete or perhaps niche cars.

Re: Toyota’s advanced battery technology roadmap

#130

Post by jbm »

bestham wrote: post #95
jbm wrote: post #2

1000 km battery, 10 minute charge? I'm suspicious for many reasons. If they can't build their prime hybrids — or even supply gas Siennas in Canada — I'm not very confident about their manufacturing in the mid-term. I hope I'm wrong.

Toyota is one of the top innovators in the world when it comes to manufacturing. The reason Tesla is able to produce millions of Model 3 is partly because they are applying the lessons learned from the Toyota production system (TPS). Toyota have a lot of experience of electrification, they just have not produced a lot of vehicles with a charging plug. Toyota will deliver EVs that good enough to compete with all other…

My post above included a gas car (the Sienna) which is backordered for years in my country (Canada). There is obviously some kind of breakdown in the way their company is run; how else can you leave that many customers waiting for that period of time? The pandemic is not an excuse anymore.

I have no confidence they will successfully produce an EV with the classic Toyota reliability because of the software piece.

It's completely wrong to call them the tortise, they are the hare. They took their nap, and now have a very different field to race on; one in which Hyundai is suddenly a strong competitor with years of practical experience - without domestic politics restricting them to daydreaming about Hydrogen.

I hope they surprise me, because I still love my 2016 Sienna.

On a related note, before I bought my Model 3, I went for a test drive at the Subaru dealership. The dealer specifically told me that, if I really wanted an electric car, I should go with Tesla because "Toyota will never get an equivalent charging network going here".

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