Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study • Hacker News Board

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#121

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 3:58 PM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #81

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

It's true, and fair enough. It is also true that societies are brutally darwinian. The ones that prevail are the ones that can produce the most offspring, and bring it to economic maturity. This is the story behind the enormous success of China and India, per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems…

> per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems problematic actually) then it doesn't matter that they are per-capita poor.

This is a line of reasoning I don't get. I mean I understand it, I just strongly disagree.

Countries are made up of people, individual people. How important is it really that a country is a "superpower" if the average person eeks out a horrible existence. To take it to a further extreme, look at the Russian empire of the late 18th/early 19th century. Russia was definitely a Great Power at that time, while also the majority of the population were slaves (there really wasn't much of a difference between serfdom and slavery) who were borderline starving, or actually starving, during that time. But rah rah Russia definitely got some nice palaces out of it at the time that certainly make great monuments today.

I'm much prefer to live in a "non-superpower" with a much better quality of life for me and the people I love.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#122

Post by NoZebra120vClip » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:01 PM UTC

teg4n_ wrote: post #48

orangepurple wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect many more are blisfully unaware of what will happen to them when they inevitably end up in a nursing home. I'm not sure what you mean by generational traumas but if you mean what I think you mean they can be overcome. My grandparents vehemently hated certain specific ethnicities till the end because their brothers and sisters and parents were executed ("disappeared") by their soldiers and secret police. My…

I don’t think having children is protection against ending up in a nursing home.

In some jurisdictions, the adult children of elderly people are absolutely on the hook for their care. At least this is from a financial standpoint. They could put them in a facility, or care for them at home, but they cannot abandon the parents or leave them to their own devices. I believe that this sort of regulation lay dormant for a long time, but is now being more actively enforced, because of abuses and problems that arise when children don't care at all.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#123

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:03 PM UTC

prewett wrote: post #107

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

Wanting to raise children requires a giving mindset. In US, at least, we have a very self-focused culture. From a perspective of self-actualization, children don't make sense. Unless it turns out that nurturing and developing others is part of what it means to be human...

This line if reasoning is such bullshit, sorry. The underlying tone is always "childfree people are selfish", with the underlying message "parents are such giving people", as you pretty much explicitly say in your comment.

Except I have known plenty of parents, including some with gigantic families, who are some of the most selfish, narcissistic people I've ever met. They basically saw their children as an extension of themselves, like they were building some "noble family" bullshit or something. Simultaneously, I've also seen people without children who have dedicated their entire lives to public service and helping others.

Of course not all parents and people without parents are like this. I personally have never seen any evidence that those with or without kids (voluntarily) differ in their giving nature towards others.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#124

Post by rich_sasha » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:06 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #121

rich_sasha wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true, and fair enough. It is also true that societies are brutally darwinian. The ones that prevail are the ones that can produce the most offspring, and bring it to economic maturity. This is the story behind the enormous success of China and India, per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems…

> per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems problematic actually) then it doesn't matter that they are per-capita poor. This is a line of reasoning I don't get. I mean I understand it, I just strongly disagree. Countries are made up of people, individual people. How important is it really that a c…

Yeah, true. But I think the argument holds also for this utility function.

There is something about your society that you like, else you would be somewhere else. And, bluntly, if your society doesn't make babies, today, then in 20-30 years time there won't be people brought up in this culture. Either your society will go into decline for lack of said people, or will rely on immigration (assuming it's attractive to expats), eg people with different values to your society's.

It's not saying one society is better than another, only that if you think there is something good about your society (liberal rights? nukes? hell, maybe you're North Korean and like dictators!) then it takes babies to sustain it.

The default is you will get people brought up with values of most populous societies, which may or may not align with yours.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#125

Post by simonsarris » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:08 PM UTC

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

I think this thinking tries to obscure an immense yearning that is buried within people who may want families, but do not feel it is realistic for them. I know this because I post a lot about my own children on twitter and some of the DMs I get are essentially confessions from men and women saying exactly that.

In survey data completed fertility is usually way lower than desired fertility, and even then on surveys we cannot expect people to necessarily say what they really want if they do not think it is achievable for them.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#126

Post by PaulHoule » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:15 PM UTC

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #12

These threads pop up here just about every other day. It's not just Japan, though the media seems fixated on Japan to an unusual extent. Here are some 2023 TFR estimates, source: CIA. Japan: 1.39. Poland: 1.41. Spain: 1.29. South Korea: 1.1. Taiwan: 1.09. China: 1.45. Canada: 1.57. Germany: 1.58. UK: 1.63. Cuba: 1.71. USA: 1.85. Italy: 1.24. This is noteworthy as Italy has been under replacement TFR for nearly 50 yea…

Well, YOShInOn thought this article had an 83% chance of having a large discussion and I agreed and that was one reason I posted it (it was in the "people want to talk about this" queue, scored just 9% on "will get upvoted" model (the model for which is not so reliable), and just barely missed the "I think you will like this" queue at 47%.)

Pluses of this article are that it is factual and not inflammatory.

Minuses are that someone could say (as you're suggesting) that it is not really "news" in that it does not represent a major change in the situation and doesn't go into a lot of depth.

"Inflammatory" is a model I'd like to develop but looking at 5000 inflammatory posts on a weekend will not be good for my mental health. ("big discussion" unfortunately often means "inflammatory")

A "really news" or "duplicate" model is my holy grail, the most sources I add to YOShInOn the more articles I get for a given event. I have a a model for that but it not aggressive enough at removing duplicates but I'm afraid if I increase the sensitivity it will get more false positives.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#127

Post by javajosh » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:45 PM UTC

PaulHoule wrote: post #87

javajosh wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had kids relatively late in life (42) and it's been amazing. I love being a dad, far more than I thought I would. It wasn't really about wanting kids or not wanting kids, it felt more like...puberty in that for most of human history you don't really get to choose to do it or not, it happens pretty naturally. I guess that's unfashionable to say. Perhaps some would say it's irresponsible. But the opening montage in I…

This is good except for two things: (1) women lose their fertility at "a certain age" and if they put off childbearing for too long they might lose the opportunity and (2) if you have children late your life will overlap less with them. For that matter there is the issue of chasing a toddler around when you are 50 and less energetic than when you are 30. It's probably not so good to have children when you are very yo…

Luckily mom was 10 years younger than me. And yeah I have some concerns about being "the old dad" but I'm not that old and at least right now I'm pretty active. Had to start using reading glasses last year, so I know that won't last. But it will last long enough.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#128

Post by javajosh » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 4:48 PM UTC

BaseballPhysics wrote: post #99

javajosh wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had kids relatively late in life (42) and it's been amazing. I love being a dad, far more than I thought I would. It wasn't really about wanting kids or not wanting kids, it felt more like...puberty in that for most of human history you don't really get to choose to do it or not, it happens pretty naturally. I guess that's unfashionable to say. Perhaps some would say it's irresponsible. But the opening montage in I…

> I believe thinking too much about kids is a trap. Basically you should have them if you can. I cannot think of worse advice. Congratulations to you that you found a life that works for you. But the idea that people should just stop thinking and start procreating is absurd. Kids are a gigantic decision, the biggest one a person will ever make in their life. To not carefully consider that decision is utterly irrespon…

I don't think people really know what "the consequences" are. There's a lot of flak in the zeitgeist about how awful, expensive, and horrific kids are - but precious little about how wonderful it is. It's false advertising! There is nothing you do with your evening that is better than mine reading bedtime stories to my kids. And your morning cannot be better than mine waking up to the smiles and laughter of my kids, ready to play.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#129

Post by cheradenine_uk » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 5:14 PM UTC

rich_sasha wrote: post #81

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #13

I'd also note that plummeting birthrates are also happening in countries that are known for great social welfare, lots of government support for new mothers, and a more egalitarian society overall, like Finland. A lot of people simply don't want kids. Kids take a huge amount of time and investment for about 2 decades of one's life, and that can have a large, significant negative impact on quality of life, especially…

It's true, and fair enough. It is also true that societies are brutally darwinian. The ones that prevail are the ones that can produce the most offspring, and bring it to economic maturity. This is the story behind the enormous success of China and India, per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems…

> It feels like for all its faults, the global West has values worth preserving for the future, and that involves, well, going through with it and making babies.

As someone childfree by choice, I care about the preservation of the global west for, at most, the next 40 years.

Re: Third of Japan's 18-year-olds women may never have children: study

#130

Post by rich_sasha » Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 7:02 PM UTC

cheradenine_uk wrote: post #129

rich_sasha wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true, and fair enough. It is also true that societies are brutally darwinian. The ones that prevail are the ones that can produce the most offspring, and bring it to economic maturity. This is the story behind the enormous success of China and India, per capita they are relatively poor but punch well above that weight since they have enormous populations. If they can sustain that population dynamic (which seems…

> It feels like for all its faults, the global West has values worth preserving for the future, and that involves, well, going through with it and making babies. As someone childfree by choice, I care about the preservation of the global west for, at most, the next 40 years.

Fair enough.

Continuing on the thread of my argument, you could argue that in 30-40 years time your reliance on the society and any shared values will be very high - possibly at its highest in your life (though of course I'm just guessing, I know nothing about you). And elderly care seems to be among the most commonly outsourced. So even having a fixed horizon of caring doesn't invalidate the argument.