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Universal Paperclips

decisionproblem.com

121–130 of 174 posts

Re: Universal Paperclips

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if we make an AI that wants to turn all matter into paper clips, we're so far away from an agent doing that I'm really not too worried. I don't think there's any industry on earth that doesn't need humans in the loop somehow. Whether is mining raw material from the ground, loading stuff in machines for processing, and most importantly fixing broken down machines, robots are really bad at these things for the for…

The thought experiment is about a superintelligence, which either wouldn’t need humans and could build some kind of robots or something even more effective that we haven’t thought of, or manipulate us into doing exactly what it “wants” Also it’s a simplified example, it wouldn’t literally be paperclips but some other arbitrary goal (it shows how most goals takes to their absolute extreme won’t be compatible with huma…

What about "most arbitrary goals are incompatible with human existence" requires super-human intelligence?

A human who wanted to "build as many paperclips as possible" could cause a great deal of destruction today.

A human who wanted to accumulate as much wealth as possible could, too.

EDIT: maybe a better way of articulating my complaints about this famous thought experiment is that it's supposed to be making a point about superintelligence but it's talking about a goal that has sub-human-intelligence sophistication.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of these thought experiments seem very disconnected from how industry works. Like, we're saying "make as many paperclips as possible" as our instruction to this agent, not even "make as many as profitable" or "make up to X per day at a cost of less than Y per day"? The solution is proposed to be "program the AI to value human life" instead of the far simpler "put basic constraints on the process like you would i…

The point is it’s virtually impossible to put constraints on it that make it do what you want because if it’s more intelligent than you it can always think of something that you won’t, that’s technically within the rules you set but not at all intended. That’s why we’d need to make it care about the underlying intentions and values, but that’s also really hard

The basic premise is that it has somewhere in it that is telling it to make more paperclips. Put the constraints there.

If you're saying such an AI would be too smart to be a simple paperclip maximizer, then I'd agree, but then what's the point of the thought experiment if a paperclip maximizer is impossible.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is it’s virtually impossible to put constraints on it that make it do what you want because if it’s more intelligent than you it can always think of something that you won’t, that’s technically within the rules you set but not at all intended. That’s why we’d need to make it care about the underlying intentions and values, but that’s also really hard

That seems like an attempt to set up a futile exercise in needle-threading that relies on narrow worst-case-scenario definitions of "superintelligence"/AGI. It's too intelligent to restrict our constraints. but It's not too intelligent to be "aligned" to underlying intentions and values? That approach doesn't even work on humans, why would it work on a superintelligence?

> not too intelligent to be aligned

The thing is, being aligned cannot be solved with intelligence per se.

Say, you are (far) more intelligent than a spider. There's no way you can get aligned with (all of) its values unless the spider finds a way to let you know (all of) its values. Maybe the spider just tells you to make plenty of webs without knowing that it might get entangled in them by itself. The webs are analogous to the paperclips.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#124
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of these thought experiments seem very disconnected from how industry works. Like, we're saying "make as many paperclips as possible" as our instruction to this agent, not even "make as many as profitable" or "make up to X per day at a cost of less than Y per day"? The solution is proposed to be "program the AI to value human life" instead of the far simpler "put basic constraints on the process like you would i…

What about the engagement maximizing algorithms of the last decade plus which have seemingly helped fracture mature democracies by increasing extremism and polarization? Seems like we already have examples of companies using AI (or more specifically machine learning) to maximize some arbitrary goal without consideration for the real human harm that is created as a byproduct.

Ok, that's a more interesting goal to me, because unlike "make as many paperclips as possible" those are algorithms optimizing for actual real revenue and profit impact in a way that "as many paperclips as possible" doesn't. But it shares the "in the long run, this has a lot of externalities" aspect.

You could turn this into a "this is why superintelligence will good" thought experiment, though! Maybe "the superintelligence realizes that optimizing for these short term metrics will harm the company's position 30 years from now in a way that isn't worth it" - the superintelligence is smart enough to be longtermist ;) .

I realize that the greater point is supposed to be more like "this agent will be so different that we can't anticipate what it will be weighing or not, and whether it's longterm view would align with ours", but the paperclip maximizer example just requires it to be dumb in a way that I don't find consistent with the concern. And I find myself similarily unconvinced at many other points along the chain of reasoning that leads to the conclusion that this should be a huge immediate worry or priority for us, instead of focusing on human incentives/systems/goals.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is it’s virtually impossible to put constraints on it that make it do what you want because if it’s more intelligent than you it can always think of something that you won’t, that’s technically within the rules you set but not at all intended. That’s why we’d need to make it care about the underlying intentions and values, but that’s also really hard

The basic premise is that it has somewhere in it that is telling it to make more paperclips. Put the constraints there. If you're saying such an AI would be too smart to be a simple paperclip maximizer, then I'd agree, but then what's the point of the thought experiment if a paperclip maximizer is impossible.

I think you’re missing some big pieces of the idea here.

The first is that these constraints aren’t easy. Make paperclips in a way that doesn’t hurt anyone. Ok, so it’s going to make sure every single part is ethically sourced from a company that never causes any harm to come to anyone ever, and doesn’t give any money to people or companies that do? That doesn’t exist. So you put in a few caveats and those aren’t exactly easy to get right.

The second part is an any versus all issue. Even if you get this right in any one case, that’s not enough. We have to get this right in all cases. So even if you can come up with an idea to make an ethical super intelligence, do you have an idea to make all super intelligences act ethically?

I actually believe in the general premise of this question as being the biggest threat to humans. I don’t think it’s a doomsday bot that gets us. It’s going to be someone trying to hit a KPI, and they’ll make a super intelligence that demolishes us like a construction site over an anthill.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#126
post #14

The paperclip maximizer is a thought experiment described by Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom in 2003. It illustrates the existential risk that an artificial general intelligence may pose to human beings when it is programmed to pursue even seemingly harmless goals and the necessity of incorporating machine ethics into artificial intelligence design. The scenario describes an advanced artificial intelligence tasked w…

Some of these thought experiments seem very disconnected from how industry works. Like, we're saying "make as many paperclips as possible" as our instruction to this agent, not even "make as many as profitable" or "make up to X per day at a cost of less than Y per day"? The solution is proposed to be "program the AI to value human life" instead of the far simpler "put basic constraints on the process like you would i…

The basic problem still remains: if you build an autonomous machine intelligence and try to encode it with basic directives, the potential implications of those directives is hard to predict. Obviously the paperclip company doesn’t want to replace the entire universe with a grey goo any more than the sorcerer’s apprentice wants to flood the workshop; it happens accidentally.

Of course the paperclip company can try to add constraints to their AI in order to prevent naive paperclip maximization, but what if they screw up those constraints as well? The whole premise of Asimov’s Three Laws is that AI has these sorts of constraints, but even in his stories these constraints still lead to unexpected outcomes.

All programming bugs are the result of a programmer encoding an instruction or statement that doesn’t imply what they think it implies and the computer following it literally. A more capable and autonomous computer that approaches what we might call “intelligence” is also going to be more capable of doing harm when it runs into a bug. And if it’s something like an LLM where the instructions are natural language, with all its ambiguity and vagueness, you have a whole other issue compounding it.

If you study philosophy you end up running into the exact same problem. The object of the game of philosophy is to make the most general true statements possible. One philosopher might say something like, “knowledge is defined as true justified belief”, or maybe “moral good is defined as whatever delivers the greatest good to the greatest number”, or maybe even, “the object of the game of philosophy is to make the most general true statements possible”. And then another philosopher comes up with a counterexample or counterargument which disproves the first philosopher’s statement, usually because—just like a programming bug—it entails an implication that the first philosopher didn’t think of. We have been playing the game of philosophy for thousands of years and nobody has managed to score a point yet.

Another thing. Human beings have a lot of needs, imperatives, motivations, and values. Some of them, like food, are built in. Others are learned through culture. But we end up with a lot of them, and it’s easy to take them for granted. With a machine, you have to build those things in yourself. There’s no getting around it. But we don’t actually have a complete, hierarchical set of imperatives/motivations/values for a decent human being. The philosophers have been working on it for millennia but keep running into bugs. So how can we expect to solve the problem for non-human AI? True, we are unlikely to screw up so badly that we end up with a literal paperclip maximizer, but we are bound to make some far more subtle mistake of the same general kind.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#127
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The new version has a multiverse map you have to traverse through to collect some really sick upgrades It's an absolute grind, but once you pick up some 500% productivity multipliers it gets much easier

Oh shit. Gotta nope out of that as long as I'm still playing Evolve.

It sucked up several weeks of my time. Got about halfway through the map before my save file got corrupted.

Honestly kinda ruined it, I don't know if I can play the game again knowing I lost a couple hundred hours of progress

Re: Universal Paperclips

#128
post #14

The paperclip maximizer is a thought experiment described by Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom in 2003. It illustrates the existential risk that an artificial general intelligence may pose to human beings when it is programmed to pursue even seemingly harmless goals and the necessity of incorporating machine ethics into artificial intelligence design. The scenario describes an advanced artificial intelligence tasked w…

Some of these thought experiments seem very disconnected from how industry works. Like, we're saying "make as many paperclips as possible" as our instruction to this agent, not even "make as many as profitable" or "make up to X per day at a cost of less than Y per day"? The solution is proposed to be "program the AI to value human life" instead of the far simpler "put basic constraints on the process like you would i…

I'm not sure if economy inherently values human lives more than anything else. Only the monetary metrics need to bw fulfilled.

It's interesting to transfer the idea of the Turing Test onto other "agent" scenarios.

Financial trading bots have been a thing for a long time without any need to pretend that they're human.

The legitimation of property and capital depends on human owners though.

Re: Universal Paperclips

#130
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you accept the implied premise that there are irresponsible deployments of AI out there, the alternative explanation is that they did consider the ramifications and simply don't care. That's even worse. Calling them ignorant is actually giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Another explanation is that there are those who considered and thoughtfully weighed the ramifications, but came to a different conclusion. It is unfair to assume a decision process was agnostic to harm or plain ignorant. For example, perhaps the lesser-evil argument played a role in the decision process: would a world where deep fakes are ubiquitous and well-known by the public be better than a world where deep fakes…

there's also the issue that most of the AI catastrophizing is a pretty clear slipperyslope argument:

if we build ai AND THEN we give it a stupid goal to optimize AND THEN we give it unlimited control over its environment, something bad will happen.

the conclusion is always "building AI is wrong" and not "giving AI unrestricted control of critical systems is wrong"

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