121–130 of 137 posts
I was a remainer (ie anti-Brexit). This article shows what seems to be becoming a general growing consensus that "some people (prominent campaigners and politicians) lied to us for their own benefit" - and there is a more subtle second consensus of "and then forced a hard brexit for their own career gains". This is a nice consensus because it has evil people to blame, and removes the blame from 50% of the voting publ…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
More to the point 2/4 countries in the UK voted remain and got dragged out of the EU anyway.
the UK is unitary state, not a federation or confederation the previous sovereign states that were dissolved to form it are called "countries" for historical reasons the referendum was 1 person 1 vote populations: - Scotland and NI (voted Remain): 7.5 million - England and Wales (vote Leave): 60 million allowing 7.5 million to override 60 million, simply because they physically live in an area that was formerly a dif…
Like how in the Electoral College here in the US, one vote in Wyoming can have almost two orders of magnitude more impact than a vote in California when it comes to electing senators, as each state gets two regardless of population [0]. Similarly, when one looks at the extent of gerrymandering, it’s clear that the winners, and especially one party in particular, love to redraw the lines to cherry-pick the voters that will elect them while excluding others that might challenge them [1]. For presidential elections, the difference between a Wyoming voter’s say and the average say of a voter from any other state is around 3.18:1. Worst-case is of course California, where it’s about 3.6:1 when compared to Wyoming, or said another way, a vote here is worth 27.7% of a Wyoming vote. [2][3]
0. https://wallethub.com/edu/how-much-is-your-vote-worth/7932
1. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2021/nov/12/gerrymander-redistricting-map-republicans-democrats-visual
2. https://fairvote.org/archives/the_electoral_college-population_vs_electoral_votes/
3. https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/how-much-voting-power-do-you-really-have-in-your-stateI was a remainer (ie anti-Brexit). This article shows what seems to be becoming a general growing consensus that "some people (prominent campaigners and politicians) lied to us for their own benefit" - and there is a more subtle second consensus of "and then forced a hard brexit for their own career gains". This is a nice consensus because it has evil people to blame, and removes the blame from 50% of the voting publ…
A start would be ditching FPTP elections. People vote with their emotions, regardless of education. But I will concede education helps. However, look at all the educated but gullible fools who still think the Democrat Party is "for the people" compared to the Republican Party. Both parties are for the Ruling Elite. Its just different Rhetoric but same actions and outcomes.
Pieter Hintjens the ZeroMQ founder wrote the book "The Psychopath Code". I learnt that some bad people are enough to make a community capsize. I am not sure whether this applies to democracies as well. It is a completely different scale from Open Source projects. However I think, this book is very valuable in learning why democracies have enormous difficulties.
I am afraid, however, that the alternatives are even worse.
Hard to imagine Britain joining both the Euro and the Schengen zones. I just don’t see the British public not thinking they’re special and demanding exceptions and carve outs just for them.
The first time I went to Tenerife I was deeply puzzled by seeing long immigration queues on TFS. It took me weeks of wondering who those people were, before I realized that they were UK vacationers who didn't enjoy any of the convenience of Schengen. Even Swiss and Norwegians would just walk through like on a domestic flight, UK visitors got special attention. That day I understood a lot more about brexit (that was s…
I was a remainer (ie anti-Brexit). This article shows what seems to be becoming a general growing consensus that "some people (prominent campaigners and politicians) lied to us for their own benefit" - and there is a more subtle second consensus of "and then forced a hard brexit for their own career gains". This is a nice consensus because it has evil people to blame, and removes the blame from 50% of the voting publ…
They are everywhere, and Labour is sadly doing anything to court these self-flagellant types, so we'll keep ignoring this shadow over our heads for the next 30 years at least.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
According to those numbers, rejoin is 55% and Leave + Don't Know is 44%. It always helps to read the sources you cite...
I did and that’s not how polls work. - Those numbers are much closer than 60/40, for a start - People change their mind because of a campaign - The poll doesn’t show how different constituencies will vote - To get elected, you win constituencies, not the popular vote - YouGov polling puts “leaving the EU” down at 17% in importance https://yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/the-most-impo... - Meaning the public do…
Since that is exactly how polls work, not sure how you could have read it.
> Those numbers are much closer than 60/40, for a start
Only because I lumped all of the "Don't Knows" into "Leave". Which is unrealistic, but a lower bound for the vote for remain that is above what you claim. So your claim isn't just not right, it isn't even wrong.
If instead I lump the "Don't Knows" in with "Remain", it turns into 68/31. The truth is probably somewhere between 55/44, which is still a 10% spread, and 68/31, which is 37% spread. And 60/40 is not splitting the difference in the middle, it is giving more of the undecideds to leave.
> To get elected, you win constituencies, not the popular vote
To leave the EU, you win the popular vote in a referendum, not individual constituencies. To rejoin would most likely be the same.
And it turns out that the result is even more lopsided in thinking Brexit was mistake when you look at constituencies. In effect the entire country is now Remain.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-regret...
etc.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I suspect they could maintain an opt out for the Schengen, purely because a land border exists with Ireland, which isn’t part of the Schengen area either. (That being said I’d like it if Ireland joined Schengen, as it makes it just a tad more convenient when flying to the rest of the EU) Doubtful that they could avoid a commitment to joining the eurozone though.
Ireland is not against Schengen. They are out because of UK and previous agreement. I think they would be extremely glad to join Schengen if UK was forced at exact same time.
The way I'd imagine the UK retaining it's opt-out here, is that it's something that the EU could compromise on without really losing much (and importantly without losing face, as the Irish border and preservation of the GFA is a reasonable excuse to find reason to compromise) and that the UK negotiators could then present as a "win" back home, making the other conditions that the UK now has to accept (for example the euro) easier to sell the general populace on.
Obviously though, I'd much prefer if both the UK and Ireland joined Schengen together.
remember: the FT have managed to mis-predict every single major UK political event relating to brexit: - they'll vote remain - they'll ignore the referendum result - they won't invoke article 50 - the article 50 court case will prevent it being triggered - we won't exit - we'll stay in the single market they simply have no understanding of how the electorate think (though I suppose it's possible they may eventually g…
Magical thinking generally is alive and well in certain strata of British life. UK politics generally seems to be a game of make believe, with a broad failure to grasp that decline is now baked in.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I did and that’s not how polls work. - Those numbers are much closer than 60/40, for a start - People change their mind because of a campaign - The poll doesn’t show how different constituencies will vote - To get elected, you win constituencies, not the popular vote - YouGov polling puts “leaving the EU” down at 17% in importance https://yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/the-most-impo... - Meaning the public do…
> I did and that’s not how polls work. Since that is exactly how polls work, not sure how you could have read it. > Those numbers are much closer than 60/40, for a start Only because I lumped all of the "Don't Knows" into "Leave". Which is unrealistic, but a lower bound for the vote for remain that is above what you claim. So your claim isn't just not right, it isn't even wrong. If instead I lump the "Don't Knows" in…
- This poll doesn’t do constituency breakdown
- How many of those people would actually vote?
- Do they know what rejoining entails?
- There is no campaign on rejoin
- In such a campaign, the Brexit media will absolutely spell out how hard rejoining actually is
- Only 17% of people actually think this is important
- The EU still wouldn’t re-admit the UK because nearly half the fucking country still wants to be out!
Speaking of referendums:
> To rejoin would most likely be the same.
No, to rejoin, first you elect a party that either campaigns on rejoin or to hold a referendum. Both are guaranteed vote-losers because of what I posted above: 83% of the country doesn’t want to reopen the Brexit discussion. In addition, with the UK’s voting system, you can have 55% support your position and hand an 80-seat majority to the 45% who oppose.
> And it turns out that the result is even more lopsided in thinking Brexit was mistake
This is simply a garbage poll and doesn’t back up your claim at all. “Do you regret” is not the same as “should we rejoin.”
Let’s go back to the core issue: in the best case, half the country wants to stay out the EU. That is NOT “politically settled” in any sense of the term. Until that changes, with all major parties supporting rejoin, actually rejoining is total fantasy politics.