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TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

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Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#121

Post by somewhat_drunk »

landemva wrote: post #96
sanxiyn wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, inflation is an actual danger (see Turkey) and Federal Reserve deserves credit for handling inflation well. I agree semiconductor is an industry well known to be cyclic and prophecies of doom are ridiculous.

> Federal Reserve deserves credit for handling inflation well. That is a stretch. They jacked rates on Trump, lowered rates for Biden, and in my opinion were forced to raise rates when the Ukraine money/power grab ramped up.

Interest rates were already increasing when Trump was elected. They jacked rates to cool the economy, as they should have done.

Rates were already decreasing when COVID hit, and they dropped rates to zero when the economy shut down, as they should have done.

Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as I'm sure you know.

You could have simply looked up a long-term chart of the FED funds rate to verify your political belief, but you chose not to. Why?

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#122

Post by hirvi74 »

mschuster91 wrote: post #92
HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is probably the most depressing comment that I've ever upvoted.

Nothing but the truth though. For me the question is not if we get a serious left-wing terrorist uprising out of all the shit happening at the moment, it is when . Personal guess it's going to be either UK or German's environmental activists or Israel, with a serious leaning to the latter given that everyone over there gets a ton of military mandatory experience.

> if we get a serious left-wing terrorist uprising out of all the shit happening at the moment, it is when.

What do you mean by left-wing terrorist uprising? Isn't left-wing ideology kind of relative to each country e.g. Icelandic left-wing/right-wing is not like Chinese Japanese left-wing/right-wing.

What would be the goal of these terrorist?

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#124

Post by mschuster91 »

hirvi74 wrote: post #122
mschuster91 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing but the truth though. For me the question is not if we get a serious left-wing terrorist uprising out of all the shit happening at the moment, it is when . Personal guess it's going to be either UK or German's environmental activists or Israel, with a serious leaning to the latter given that everyone over there gets a ton of military mandatory experience.

> if we get a serious left-wing terrorist uprising out of all the shit happening at the moment, it is when. What do you mean by left-wing terrorist uprising? Isn't left-wing ideology kind of relative to each country e.g. Icelandic left-wing/right-wing is not like Chinese Japanese left-wing/right-wing. What would be the goal of these terrorist?

> What do you mean by left-wing terrorist uprising?

A lot of the issues I stated - e.g. the rise of the authoritarian/far right, climate change, wealth disparity - are usually associated with the (far) left, or at least the left is the one pushing for reforms.

Generally, people don't become terrorists... if they don't have the feeling they have no other choice left. Israel is the closest to that tipping point, with soldiers threatening to hand in their papers (which is very unusual as it puts the country at a serious risk should any of its enemies attack), but climate change protestors in the UK and Germany have recently escalated their methods (and so has public response, including a lorry driver running over a protestor blocking a street here in Germany), and god only knows what will happen in the US should Trump gain a second term or, worse, DeSantis.

That is why I'm relatively certain at least some people will choose violence - the question is how many will follow them.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#125

Post by landemva »

mschuster91 wrote: post #101
landemva wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NATO could do way way WAY more Where in NATO charter are they to interfere for a non-NATO country?

We could have delivered tanks from our storages the very second the first Russian crossed the border, we could have delivered fighter jets, we could have done a lot without directly involving us into the war. Instead we got Biden being afraid of Republicans (most importantly the Russian asset that was the 45th President), our German Olaf Scholz being afraid of his own party and its close ties to Russia and the far-ri…

USA provided munitions before WW1 and Germans took out the Lusitania after warning Americans not to set sail on that boat.

https://archive.archaeology.org/0901/trenches/lusitania.html

Providing munitions to non-NATO country is meddling and could be considered an act of war. Where is USA Congress to vote on this war?

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#126

Post by landemva »

somewhat_drunk wrote: post #121
landemva wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Federal Reserve deserves credit for handling inflation well. That is a stretch. They jacked rates on Trump, lowered rates for Biden, and in my opinion were forced to raise rates when the Ukraine money/power grab ramped up.

Interest rates were already increasing when Trump was elected. They jacked rates to cool the economy, as they should have done. Rates were already decreasing when COVID hit, and they dropped rates to zero when the economy shut down, as they should have done. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as I'm sure you know. You could have simply looked up a long-term chart of the FED funds rate to verify your po…

February 2020 discount rate was 2.25. March 2020 it was 0.25. Was that the biggest drop ever? Just two weeks to slow the spread, ha!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#127

Post by lamontcg »

ajb wrote: post #19
cs702 wrote: post #17

TSMC just warned the world of a 10% decline in chip revenues. Given that chips today are critical component of every phone, TV, laptop, desktop PC, server, vehicle, dishwasher, and pretty much everything else , TSMC's warning suggests we're going to experience a significant global economic contraction soon. Hopefully I'm wrong.

This isn't necessarily representative of the economics of downstream sectors, because it's probably caused by the Bullwhip Effect[1] like the recent semiconductor shortage. "The bullwhip effect refers to a scenario in which small changes in demand at the retail end of the supply chain become amplified when moving up the supply chain from the retail end to the manufacturing end." [1] https://www.investopedia.com/bullw…

Both explanations are probably correctly.

This is a bullwhip effect, but that does cause a real build up in inventories and contraction in demand during the down part of the cycle.

And this will be concurrent with the higher rate environment and contraction in homebuilding and other sectors caused by Fed policy.

And so the TSMC warning is likely is forecasting a brewing recession, precipitated in part due to bullwhip effects.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#128

Post by somewhat_drunk »

landemva wrote: post #126
somewhat_drunk wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates were already increasing when Trump was elected. They jacked rates to cool the economy, as they should have done. Rates were already decreasing when COVID hit, and they dropped rates to zero when the economy shut down, as they should have done. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as I'm sure you know. You could have simply looked up a long-term chart of the FED funds rate to verify your po…

February 2020 discount rate was 2.25. March 2020 it was 0.25. Was that the biggest drop ever? Just two weeks to slow the spread, ha! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N

I can't tell if you're being disingenuous or if you're just not very bright.

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#129

Post by [deleted] »

landemva wrote: post #96
sanxiyn wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, inflation is an actual danger (see Turkey) and Federal Reserve deserves credit for handling inflation well. I agree semiconductor is an industry well known to be cyclic and prophecies of doom are ridiculous.

> Federal Reserve deserves credit for handling inflation well. That is a stretch. They jacked rates on Trump, lowered rates for Biden, and in my opinion were forced to raise rates when the Ukraine money/power grab ramped up.

[deleted]

Re: TSMC warns over deepening slump in chipmaking sector

#130

Post by ajross »

landemva wrote: post #126
somewhat_drunk wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates were already increasing when Trump was elected. They jacked rates to cool the economy, as they should have done. Rates were already decreasing when COVID hit, and they dropped rates to zero when the economy shut down, as they should have done. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as I'm sure you know. You could have simply looked up a long-term chart of the FED funds rate to verify your po…

February 2020 discount rate was 2.25. March 2020 it was 0.25. Was that the biggest drop ever? Just two weeks to slow the spread, ha! https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N

That was a full year before Trump left office though. Are you confused about dates?
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