Live data from Hacker News

The deindustrialization of Germany

politico.eu

121–130 of 175 posts

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the German speaking population in Romania is also due to it being part of the former Austrian empire, not because Romanians have a natureal affinity towards German.

It’s not necessarily a matter of being part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire but the role of German as a major European language of culture and learning, one that for Romania’s ethnic Hungarian population was never quite replaced by French. German has been popular in Bulgaria, too, and Germany a major destination for Bulgarian emigration, in spite of that country always being well outside any German-speaking empires.

>German as a major European language of culture and learning

Maybe, but that was not my experience growing up in Romania, unless maybe you refer to some niches of highly educated and cultured people in some posh circles of academia, but I'm talking more about the average joe. English was by far the most dominant foreign language learned by the youth due to the influence of Anglo entertainment industry, followed by French as a distant second, and then German.

The fact that more people emigrated to Germany than to France or the UK (maybe, I don't have statistics) has nothing to do with people's affinity for that country's language or culture, but to the economic opportunities available to them there. Most people didn't study German before emigrating to Germany, but learned it there out of necessity. This might just be my circles, but nobody I knew growing up had any affinity or interest for the German language or German culture as it was seen as an ugly and difficult to learn language of boring hard-working people who are only famous for building great cars and for that other thing (no offence, but that was the stereotype amongst clueless young people), people only wanted to learn German to emigrate there later in life for economic reasons.

>German has been popular in Bulgaria, too

Do you have a source on that? Like I said before, a country being a popular destination for labor immigration doesn't mean that foreign language is also popular in that country.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#122
post #13

I have tried to go against some of the arguments because some are wrong, some are okayish, and some are just plain wrong, but I gave up. The article moves all over the place pulling random facts from all kinds of places in support of the idea that Germany is declining. Maybe that's true, maybe not. This article appears not rigorous enough to come to a right conclusion.

Same here. It reads like a huge list of cherry-pickings. You'd think that quoting facts would strengthen ones argument, all these tiny and sometimes very specific facts with no context had the opposite effect.

The article was obviously about the big picture.

You get that only when you look at a bunch of "unrelated", "small" facts. If there are a lot of facts pointing in one direction, maybe there is something to it.

The other point is: That was not cheery picking. There are no other facts that would point in the opposite direction… More or less everything in Germany is in decline. That's just true. Source: I'm living here since about 40 years.

Though the article interpreted something quite wrong in the very beginning: The decline started quite exactly around 20 years ago. It was caused by the move to ultra-capitalism (the mentioned big social reforms 20 years ago), which made Germany a low wage country, which made the people poor and started an exodus of the well educated parts of society. The reforms made some of the numbers capitalists are interested in look good for some time, but at the expense of maximally "squeezing out" society. Now this short sighted tactic backfires.

By now almost 1/6 of the people here are poor (and 1/4 is at risk of becoming poor):

https://www.malteser.de/armut-in-deutschland.html

Almost nobody can afford children. ("Bio-Germans" are foreseeable dying out therefore, and it doesn't look like this is avoidable any more when you try to play the numbers game. The article showed the relevant statistic. At least we get some migrants; with children. But the "Bio-Germans" hate migrants. Also this may pay off not before one generation; we need to educate the children; but the education system is broken…)

Actually it's getting hard to even afford a living place. Liberal housing markets made space in areas of high population density so expensive "normal" people can't afford it any more. At the same time building new housing is too expensive and nobody invest in that. Which made companies in the building business die out, and even if the state would massively invest in housing right now we don't have the capacity to build that stuff. And even if we would have the firms, they would not find employees…

https://www.mieterbund.de/fileadmin/public/Studien/Studie_-_...

(Fun fact: AFAIK if Germany would build enough housing it would completely miss it's green goals, as building housing creates a lot of CO₂.)

The complete dependence on the car industry becomes a real problem at the same time. It's not only the big car manufacturers. But the largest part of "the Mittelstand" are external suppliers for the car industry… Should this implode (and it looks like that, as China is flooding the car markets, that's a fact) this will have catastrophic results for Germany. We simply don't have anything besides the car stuff. All we've got is already gone. And what's left is leaving because of he astronomical energy prices.

Big players are moving elsewhere, the smaller ones just die. Result: More people becoming poor, which just accelerates the downward spiral.

In regard to modern tech, like IT, Germany is a developing country. We're completely depended on the US and Asia in this area! People are making jokes about "Russian computers"[1] but the sad truth is we couldn't even build such a thing on our own.

In the last decades the education became completely messed up also. They tried to make everybody go to university; which destroyed the previously high class educational system. By now even the firms offering apprenticeship in handicraft trades complain that you can't find people skilled for that as the people coming from school can't properly read, write, or do basic calculus. (Source: I've talked to people offering apprenticeships, not only once, and I've had some contact to the youth.)

At the same time politics try to just close their eyes to most problems: If you listen to the local propaganda "everything is good" or, currently, "It's Putin's fault!". (That's not completely true, of course, there is some critical thinking even in mainstream here and there, but they hide it usually under a really large pile of straight propaganda; and it became quite seldom. This wasn't always like that. Even the state media was much more critical 20 years ago. By now it's obviously just coordinated propaganda. We actually pay over 10 billion Euro for our state propaganda…)

The article was actually refreshing unpolitical. You usually don't see such "pure" recitation of facts in the local (and especially state) media. (I was waiting the whole time while reading when we "get to the meat" and I get informed what we should buy to safe our souls, or who to blame for all the problems, but to my surprise this part never surfaced. The article looked almost like proper journalism from decades ago).

Just naming those facts is actually considered "right wing activism" here in Germany. You will get canceled quite instantly for saying the things the article said if you state such stuff for example as comment in some of the mainstream media outlets. Yes, they cancel for reciting facts. Especially if the recited facts have potential to "irritate people", and you present some proper numbers to make your point.

(Disclaimer: I'm not supporting any political party any more. I was once "leaning to the left". But the lefties are by now the same scammers as every other political movement. All these people in politics just care about redirecting state money into their own pockets. No difference the "color" or "side" of the political movement. Kleptocracy in it's final stage. Peak capitalism. This won't end good… And if there wouldn't be the language barrier I would actually start to consider to move to China. It's getting noticeably worse here and while looking at the current state of affairs it foreseeably won't get better during my lifetime anymore.)

[1] https://www.heise.de/news/MIG-Akinak-Russlands-selbstentworf... (See also the comments!)

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#123
post #47

I found the article quite good but has missed a couple of points that need to be mentioned: 1. The attitude of the average German consumer It seems to me that one of the national sports in Germany is to find cheaper deals for pretty much anything (and then brag about it). Even if it's fractions of a euro! After trimming down on everything that they could, the manufacturers and service providers had to finally reduce…

I don’t have an informed opinion, but with my limited interactions with Germans, the problem with software engineering is that it is not considered a high status profession. The smart German would rather go into law, medicine, accounting (!!) or teaching, than into software development. It is true that before Brexit salaries were much lower compared to the UK, and that only recently, after Covid, they skyrocketed. So this perception may have changed for the younger generations.

Mind, this is my poor man’s sociologist analysis, but it seems that they rely heavily on foreigners, which are very hard to attract because of the language and bureaucratic barrier. From what I see, even companies that pay good salaries (say ~100K total compensation for a senior) mainly employ foreigners.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is true in Romania, too. Since the ethnic Hungarian population isn’t Latin, interest in the German language has always been higher among them, and Germany has been a magnet for Hungarian emigration from Romania. But even leaving language aside, I know a number of ethnic Romanians from Cluj and Timisoara who moved to Germany, especially Berlin a decade ago when it was viewed as the hipster capital of Europe and sti…

Sure, but the German speaking population in Romania is also due to it being part of the former Austrian empire, not because Romanians have a natureal affinity towards German.

In former Yugoslavia I feel like the parts that weren't part of Austria-Hungary are even more German-centric than the parts that were - Many Austrian companies (UNIQA, RBI, Strabag, Buwog, etc.) dominate the playing field while other, much bigger European counterparts like BNP (French) don't really put up a competition. (i.e. in Kosovo, part of Ottoman rule)

In summer time all you see are German, Austrian and Swiss license plates, the DACH area has always been a No. 1 destination for expats / refugees from the region and German language proficiency is quite high.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#125
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but the German speaking population in Romania is also due to it being part of the former Austrian empire, not because Romanians have a natureal affinity towards German.

In former Yugoslavia I feel like the parts that weren't part of Austria-Hungary are even more German-centric than the parts that were - Many Austrian companies (UNIQA, RBI, Strabag, Buwog, etc.) dominate the playing field while other, much bigger European counterparts like BNP (French) don't really put up a competition. (i.e. in Kosovo, part of Ottoman rule) In summer time all you see are German, Austrian and Swiss l…

>e In former Yugoslavia I feel like the parts that weren't part of Austria-Hungary are even more German-centric than the parts that were

Yeah, but how much that has to do with the German language influence itself, and how much to do with mass emigration there due with the proximity of former-Yugoslav countries to DACH countries following the wars? For most people, being 4h drive away from home, is better than flying to Netherlands/UK, nothing to do with their preference for German language.

Plus, former Yugoslavia isn't really all for Eastern Europe. Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, the Baltics have little affinity to the German language and they're huge population centers.

> Many Austrian companies (UNIQA, RBI, Strabag, Buwog, etc.) dominate the playing field

Because these large and ultra corrupt Austrian companies know how to play the corruption game in the Balkans. Funny how Austrian companies are so big there but not in other countries. Why is that I wonder.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#126
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I help German immigrants for a living. It's currently one of the hardest countries to settle in due to the archaic and labyrinthine bureaucracy. Berlin's immigration office is completely unable to handle its workload, delaying immigration to the point people just give up and leave. I've been here long enough to apply for citizenship, but Berlin has a backlog of 26,000 applications and literally refuses new ones until…

Maybe Berlin has just reached maximum occupancy? I mean, we'd all like to live in our favorite dream city, but how long is that sustainable long term, if we all move to one city? Germany seems like it wants to have its cake and eat it too. It wants more migration to put downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on housing prices, but that's it, it does nothing to actually make life pleasant and attractive for th…

Berlin is not full. The bureaucracy is inefficient and understaffed. Almost all of it is still paper-based and rely on in-person appointments. Like I said, it needs to enter the 21st century but it's just not happening.

This was a problem a decade ago and nothing really changed.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#127
post #90
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I help German immigrants for a living. It's currently one of the hardest countries to settle in due to the archaic and labyrinthine bureaucracy. Berlin's immigration office is completely unable to handle its workload, delaying immigration to the point people just give up and leave. I've been here long enough to apply for citizenship, but Berlin has a backlog of 26,000 applications and literally refuses new ones until…

Berlin is infamously badly governed. It should not be considered representative of Germany as a whole.

Other Ausländerbehörde are just as bad, although other services are indeed far worse in Berlin.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#128
post #123
post #47

I found the article quite good but has missed a couple of points that need to be mentioned: 1. The attitude of the average German consumer It seems to me that one of the national sports in Germany is to find cheaper deals for pretty much anything (and then brag about it). Even if it's fractions of a euro! After trimming down on everything that they could, the manufacturers and service providers had to finally reduce…

I don’t have an informed opinion, but with my limited interactions with Germans, the problem with software engineering is that it is not considered a high status profession. The smart German would rather go into law, medicine, accounting (!!) or teaching, than into software development. It is true that before Brexit salaries were much lower compared to the UK, and that only recently, after Covid, they skyrocketed. So…

>It is true that before Brexit salaries were much lower compared to the UK

And people from the UK say the opposite, that engineers are not respected and paid in the UK the way they are in Germany. I think the low/high PoV of your salary depends in which bubble you hang around. Every market is flooded with low pay offers, but yes, I feel like in Germany, unless you work for big-tech, SW engineering is pay way less compared to other positions, in contrast to the US where tech wages rule over the rest.

>only recently, after Covid, they skyrocketed

I don't think you're correct, maybe that was true at the height of the market a year or so before, but recently after the tech market fell and layoffs happened, I see most companies rarely hire and when they do they exclusively want skilled seniors for mid-level pay. I don't see those skyrocket salaries anymore after the market collapsed.

Same info I got when I talk to people who recruit/hire: a year or so ago they were struggling to hire and had to increase pay or hire juniors and train them, but now they get a tone of experienced applicants for every opening that they can dictate pay.

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#129
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe Berlin has just reached maximum occupancy? I mean, we'd all like to live in our favorite dream city, but how long is that sustainable long term, if we all move to one city? Germany seems like it wants to have its cake and eat it too. It wants more migration to put downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on housing prices, but that's it, it does nothing to actually make life pleasant and attractive for th…

Berlin is not full. The bureaucracy is inefficient and understaffed. Almost all of it is still paper-based and rely on in-person appointments. Like I said, it needs to enter the 21st century but it's just not happening. This was a problem a decade ago and nothing really changed.

>Berlin is not full.

Is it tough? There would be tones of empty rental apartments on the cheap if it weren't full, but the obscene state of the housing/rental market right now vastly contradicts you, and it's not because of bureaucracy, it's because there's too little places to live relative to the insane demand of people wanting to live and move there. Maybe you live in a bubble and haven't looked at the rental market in a while?

Re: The deindustrialization of Germany

#130
post #81
post #47

I found the article quite good but has missed a couple of points that need to be mentioned: 1. The attitude of the average German consumer It seems to me that one of the national sports in Germany is to find cheaper deals for pretty much anything (and then brag about it). Even if it's fractions of a euro! After trimming down on everything that they could, the manufacturers and service providers had to finally reduce…

> I am your boss, you are the employee, now shut up and do as I say This would also not work in engineering and never did. In fact, it's likely one of reasons why german engineering was so good: because people would (and still do) tell their boss bluntly what is wrong.

Can confirm this in science too. German masters/PhD students are much more willing to correct the professor on a topic, then I. England. N=1, of course.
Post reply on HN