China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says • Hacker News Board

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#121

Post by acdha » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:09 PM UTC

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #116

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think there is a bit of a difference whether the massacre happened in the 1860 or 1960, and whether the last larger massacre of protestors happened in 1970 and is generally, officially and publicly recognized as a bad thing with memorials etc. [1], or whether it happened in 1989, involved tanks and hundreds to thousands of deaths, and people are persecuted for even mentioning it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K…

Well, when Mao was doing his great leaps, American citizens had to literally had to march in the streets for basic civil rights. Again, not exactly a clean record. Glass houses and stones and all that. Point is, in the living memory of most people on the earth, i.e. people below 30, the only wars waged against non-neighbors have been Americans invading Iraq and Afghanistan. So from the place most non-Americans stand,…

Very true and I’d also add something about ongoing effects. For example, while it’s true that the United States isn’t massacring native Americans in open combat right now, a 30 year old is going to have seen at least news about tribal poverty rates, broken promises about things like water rights or development, and the national guard working at the behest of oil companies to remove protesters who don’t want pipelines running through tribal lands. (Repeat for the heavy-handed response to black people protesting against police brutality, etc.)

That’s not the same as Tiananmen square but it’s far more visceral lived experience for anyone under 45.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#122

Post by Timon3 » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:10 PM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #108

surgical_fire wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> overall been quite friendly an empire. Yes they friendly helped install military dictatorships in Latin American countries. They friendly invaded Iraq under false pretenses. They friendly waged wars and used economic sanctions against countries that for on reason or another didn't conform to their dominant position. Don't misunderstand me. The US has the power to oppress, and is an opressor. It is business as usual…

Relatively speaking it's undeniable that the US has been the most "friendly" "empire" or "super power" in World history. That doesn't mean it's never done anything wrong.

Can you share any research or resources on this topic that have led you to this conclusion?

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#123

Post by saiya-jin » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:11 PM UTC

paganel wrote: post #114

_s wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when they are built by Chinese companies, using Chinese sourced labour and supplies, and then the locals are taxed / billed to use them which many can't afford to begin with. Not to mention the governments now owing that loan money plus interest, none of which really went into the local economy. Not arguing against China, nor infrastructure projects, but B&R initiative is very China-centric, with a lot caveats th…

So what do you suggest as a better alternative? The West has tried and failed with countless “solutions” for more than six decades now, in many places making the situation worse compared to the start of the decolonization process. Also, road taxes is a measure that it is also heavily promoted by the European Commission in the Eastern European countries where “its” money is now helping build bridges and highways (I li…

Yeah, that's a thing - west just exploited the hell out of many parts of Africa, while not improving most places by any meaningful means, just filling pockets of corrupt local dictators. In fact most places are much worse off than they were 60 years ago.

So don't complain that they are fed up and seek help elsewhere, what west has to offer has been tried many times and results are down there. If they end up indebted to Chinese or US or some EU country like France means little difference to them, all else being equal.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#124

Post by superchroma » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:12 PM UTC

biosboiii wrote: post #100

superchroma wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it's the gigantic elephant in the room. The reported narratives have aligned over the years as if they were our enemy. Here are some: Economically, they're an adversary; they undercut western manufacturing and all our manufacturing went there. They manipulate their currency. They interfere with foreign owned businesses. They steal IP. They're seeking to upset the global money standard. They entrap other nation…

> They're seeking to upset the global money standard. The disturb the global standard, which happens to benefit the US greatly while hurting the rest of the world (especially the global south). Terrible! > They use (basically) slave labor, While it is true that China has a lot of manual labor and less worker rights than most western states, China isnt the sweatshop it used to be anymore. Nearly every "simple" labor i…

Like, great job, but you completely missed the point of the post by addressing the anecdotes. My point was western media prints uniformly negative stories about them and treats them like an enemy. The stories may be true, or not, or fair, or not. It's immaterial. They represent the battle for the hearts and minds of North America.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#125

Post by jongjong » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:12 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #93

jongjong wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The US (and other western countries) have let themselves fall victim to all sorts of corrupt ideologies; this has created short term 'limited liability' reward structures which have encouraged a short term mindset. Instead of focusing on fixing internal issues, the US decided to run their economy on the misery of others by starting wars in faraway lands, manipulating foreign governments, saddling them with d…

> The smartest thing the west can do from now on is dump fiat currencies, switch to crypto Seriously? WTF?

Radical, but the alternative is to honor all the currency paper China now holds. As someone who had no say over any of this, I don't see why I should play this game if I must join the losing side.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#126

Post by saargrin » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:14 PM UTC

paganel wrote: post #97

NicoJuicy wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These currency reserves largely represent loans China issued abroad, which have been paid off (or are in the process of being served). I think you missed a crisis in Africa. Those loans can hardly be paid off, the interest rates are too high and the borrowed loans Kuch for infrastructure projects aren't leading to any improvements / revenue. If so, show me which have a net benefit for the country where loans are us…

You’re saying that building roads and bridges is not beneficial to countries which deeply lack roads and bridges?

not in the way china builds for export

i can comment on the road projects in Nigeria and Zambia which i have personally seen

over 3-5 years after completion many fell into disrepair and now arent much better than unpaved tracks that they replace ,while the nations gained no road building expertise and are stuck with large loans

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#127

Post by bobs_salsa » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:15 PM UTC

paganel wrote: post #114

_s wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not when they are built by Chinese companies, using Chinese sourced labour and supplies, and then the locals are taxed / billed to use them which many can't afford to begin with. Not to mention the governments now owing that loan money plus interest, none of which really went into the local economy. Not arguing against China, nor infrastructure projects, but B&R initiative is very China-centric, with a lot caveats th…

So what do you suggest as a better alternative? The West has tried and failed with countless “solutions” for more than six decades now, in many places making the situation worse compared to the start of the decolonization process. Also, road taxes is a measure that it is also heavily promoted by the European Commission in the Eastern European countries where “its” money is now helping build bridges and highways (I li…

I think the major issue in this situation is that the loaned money effectively circulates back into Chinese hands, and all that the local economy gets in return is infrastructure that they will in a few years not be able to maintain or develop due to a lack of skill or resources.

So not only are none of the locals profiting from these projects, but more importantly no one is learning and developing the skills to construct and maintain the new infrastructure and services in the region.

This play by China (even if unintentional) is extremely predatory as it only makes the country more dependant on China.

In an ideal circumstance China would manage these projects while training and developing local talent to help develop the local industries. Only then do I believe would these deals be beneficial for Africa in the long run.

So you might believe these project are improving the local regions at the present, but I would be really interested to hear if you still believe so in 10 years.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#128

Post by cthalupa » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:16 PM UTC

frankreyes wrote: post #120

cthalupa wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not explicitly arguing against this point, I would note that these graphs are from Peter Zeihan, who has explicit financial incentive in convincing people China is on the road to economic ruin. He makes his living as geopolitical analyst and has been predicting the imminent downfall of China since decades ago at Stratfor - if people come to disbelieve his predictions have value, he loses money. Which doesn't me…

Zeihan is just showing us the data. Do you have any data to back up any counter argument?

Again, I am not making a counter argument. I am pointing out Zeihan has explicit incentive to show a specific narrative - it's perhaps the single largest and oldest tentpole of his career.

Is the data the whole story? Are there mitigating factors? Does it need mitigating factors to begin with? I don't know. I even explicitly mentioned he could be totally right on this specific point.

I'm simply stating that there is a caveat around the source of those graphs that interested parties should take note of, for the same reasons we ask scientists, journalists, etc., to disclaim any potential conflicts of interest they have.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#129

Post by saiya-jin » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:23 PM UTC

FreshStart wrote: post #55

The problem is that China does not want to become the US, they want to become colonial great Britain or France. The goal is classic mercantilism-all raw material have to go through them to become a product. It's barely disgused Manchester allover. The US by comparison has been quite dedicated to free trade. They abandoned there own production base, imported more culture then they exported and overall been quite frien…

That may be perspective of US person with desperate need for feel-good. Hundreds of millions of people who have seen their lives destroyed by US military-industrial complex directly, or by CIA et al power games, be if communism scare, russian scare or now China scare would strongly disagree.

Also that abandoning it own production base was not action of some goodwill, rather just greedy cost optimization which is now deeply regretted and as much as possible reverted back.

I do get this is US forum so opinions are strongly biased towards one side, and I personally am very happy with current US hegemony, but lets be a bit honest here. Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Latin america coups, African coups. CIA starting arab springs and ie war in Syria. The blood trail of innocents is more like amazon river during height of monsoon, all around the world. Now look at China. Not really comparable, is it.

Re: China Has $3T of ‘Hidden’ Currency Reserves, Setser Says

#130

Post by xbmcuser » Sun, Jul 02, 2023, 12:31 PM UTC

saiya-jin wrote: post #123

paganel wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what do you suggest as a better alternative? The West has tried and failed with countless “solutions” for more than six decades now, in many places making the situation worse compared to the start of the decolonization process. Also, road taxes is a measure that it is also heavily promoted by the European Commission in the Eastern European countries where “its” money is now helping build bridges and highways (I li…

Yeah, that's a thing - west just exploited the hell out of many parts of Africa, while not improving most places by any meaningful means, just filling pockets of corrupt local dictators. In fact most places are much worse off than they were 60 years ago. So don't complain that they are fed up and seek help elsewhere, what west has to offer has been tried many times and results are down there. If they end up indebted…

The local dictators hide and bring their money to the west only so it is a lie that the money stays in those countries. Most of it is comes to the west and then these politically exposed people are used by the 3 letter agencies of the west to control the poor countries. For those countries the loans from the West or China don't matter only maybe they can better options if they can play the west and China against each other.