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A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

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Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#121
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always had this background thought that it would be a fun job to do "due diligence" on behalf of VCs. I remember being on the receiving end of some of that work, and I wasn't all that impressed. Do today's VCs take technical due diligence seriously? If not, why not?

Technical due dilligence isnt that important. The first thing is that the product has to scale, be popular, then maybe make money. You can always hire people who will rewrite. The opposite doesnt work. Technically brilliant product might be unpopular or unknown. Please note: I dont say that things should be built poorly.

In many cases, there's a fine line between "technical" DD and just "DD".

Case in point is the JPMC acquisition of Frank and Frank's CEO Charlie Javice.

Turns out all of the user numbers were made up. A technical DD would have easily surfaced this even though the user numbers and volume is business related.

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have brought this up in another comment, but my experience in the VC world is that it operates too heavily based on 4 types of "trust": 1) Institutional trust (Stanford, Harvard, MIT, "ex-FAANG", "ex-McKinsey", etc.), 2) Social trust (someone you know that has already established one of the three other kinds of trust), 3) Serial trust ("3-exits", "former CEO/CTO/VP of..."), and 4) Transitive trust ("Sequoia investe…

> 3) Serial trust ("3-exits", "former CEO/CTO/VP of..."), and Serial trust is especially interesting for me. Someone could have founded 3 companies that weren't good investments (possibly all lost money), and VCs will throw money at that person before they try someone new. Transitive trust is also interesting. The majority of "rockstar VCs" made one good investment. Not really possible to rule out luck... And the maj…

Serial trust is definitely an interesting one.

I've been acquainted with a CEO/founder who -- for all intents and purposes -- was just not that bright but he came from a fairly well off family and his LinkedIn tagline proudly had "3-time exit" even though those exits didn't yield any significant (if any) financial gain for him personally.

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#123
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should you putting your money in a savings account ensure that you are protected from inflation? The whole point of an economy is for money to move and be invested, not hoarded by a dragon sleeping on a pile of gold coins.

Under fractional reserve banking, savings account deposits are lent out, which hopefully does result in productive investment As I understand it, western retail banks that take deposits are fractional reserve banks, and have to be if they pay interest on deposits; after all, banks don't generate revenue from just looking after your money (unless they charge you for it, perhaps in the form of a negative interest rate)

They are indeed lent out, but mostly in very safe, boring investments, that don't really generate economic activity (mortgages). This is by design, as we generally don't want banks going pear-shaped, and taking people's savings with them!

If your money is used to generate meaningful economic activity, that means you're investing it into something like stocks (Which anyone can do by opening a Schwab, or a Vanguard, or a whomever account) - which will beat inflation, but on the short-and-medium term, are not a safe investment.

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#124
post #101

> “Oh, man, the number of times I’ve been asked why my company isn’t growing as fast as X and then found out X was a fraud all along.” This, in sports, finance, startups - everywhere. Dirty players skew the dynamics of any system leading to worse outcomes for those that choose to remain honest. We need the supposed ‘smartest guys in the room’ to be less dumb and do due diligence and we need strong consequences for fo…

[flagged]

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#125
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the enterprise saas business we built, vc duedil was talking to customers, both directly via our introductions and backchanneled via their network. For the technical aspects, our vcs didn't / don't care. That's our job to figure out, and if we don't, they fire founders. I'm honestly not sure how you would seriously audit chat app numbers, and I suspect and hope Abraham Shafi is going to prison. For most businesse…

It's not that hard. - Look at the application logs - Look at the emails and reach out to a sub-sample of them to determine if they are real users - Look at the network traffic/volume numbers - Look at the architecture to see if it could actually support that volume - Look at the pattern of content in a random sampling to see if it's just "Lorem Ipsum" or actual, real content Just some heuristics I'd use off the top o…

[flagged]

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#126
post #101

> “Oh, man, the number of times I’ve been asked why my company isn’t growing as fast as X and then found out X was a fraud all along.” This, in sports, finance, startups - everywhere. Dirty players skew the dynamics of any system leading to worse outcomes for those that choose to remain honest. We need the supposed ‘smartest guys in the room’ to be less dumb and do due diligence and we need strong consequences for fo…

Welcome to wealth inequality consequences #356433

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#127
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under fractional reserve banking, savings account deposits are lent out, which hopefully does result in productive investment As I understand it, western retail banks that take deposits are fractional reserve banks, and have to be if they pay interest on deposits; after all, banks don't generate revenue from just looking after your money (unless they charge you for it, perhaps in the form of a negative interest rate)

They are indeed lent out, but mostly in very safe, boring investments, that don't really generate economic activity (mortgages). This is by design, as we generally don't want banks going pear-shaped, and taking people's savings with them! If your money is used to generate meaningful economic activity, that means you're investing it into something like stocks (Which anyone can do by opening a Schwab, or a Vanguard, or…

"In the good times" when dollar was backed by gold, bankers would borrow at 3%, lend at 6% and go to a golf course at 3 o'clock.

The economy is working incorrectly - due to central banks.

Being punished for saving is just insane.

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#128
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the spoiler. :(

Sorry. It is not important at all for the plot, no worries.

No worries! Half joking as I literally just started the show a day or two ago and am loving it and even had it on in the background while I read your comment.

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#129
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under fractional reserve banking, savings account deposits are lent out, which hopefully does result in productive investment As I understand it, western retail banks that take deposits are fractional reserve banks, and have to be if they pay interest on deposits; after all, banks don't generate revenue from just looking after your money (unless they charge you for it, perhaps in the form of a negative interest rate)

They are indeed lent out, but mostly in very safe, boring investments, that don't really generate economic activity (mortgages). This is by design, as we generally don't want banks going pear-shaped, and taking people's savings with them! If your money is used to generate meaningful economic activity, that means you're investing it into something like stocks (Which anyone can do by opening a Schwab, or a Vanguard, or…

You're substantially right, of course, but to play devil's advocate:

1) the negative real central bank interest rates are a recent anomaly in my country, and above-inflation deposit interest was easy to find before that

2) mortgage lending should indirectly generate meaningful economic activity, in the form of building construction and maintenance

3) buying stocks on the secondary market also only indirectly generates meaningful economic activity - all it does directly is take stocks out of the seller's hands, replacing it with cash - presumably, this causes a chain of trades that lead to the primary market (or possibly to a mortgage)

Re: A messaging app startup that raised $200M shuts down afters users were 95% fake

#130
post #67

I guess this is the way to get rich quick now. Imagine a company with millions of fake users all created by a LLM app.

Yep, cue the "free market" folks celebrating poorly-informed transactions between VCs dumping these companies on construction workers investing to try to fight inflation enough to send their kids to college.

> poorly-informed transactions between VCs dumping these companies on construction workers

Who is doing this?

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