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This time, it feels different

nadh.in

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Re: This time, it feels different

#121

Post by ilaksh »

cubefox wrote: post #74

He (and most people on HN) are still underestimating the impact of this. Everything points at AI soon becoming far more intelligent than any human. That's not science fiction about the remote future in a hundred years. We are talking about something in the order of ten years. We are actually at the brink of the "technological singularity". It's happening. It's happening.

Way less than ten years. You have to also consider the speed of input, thought (output), and communication. GPT-4 is basically human equivalent IQ but probably faster than human. PaLM 2 is not quite human level IQ but is something like 20 times faster than human output.

The input rate of the Claude model is incredible, digesting a book in 20 seconds. Still not quite human level IQ but pretty close.

There is relatively low-hanging fruit for optimizing the models and software and also the hardware for this specific application. We can expect at least another 10 times performance improvement within a couple of years.

And of course as far as IQ that we can measure we can assume it will probably come close to top marks within a few years. But you should scale that based on the incredible speed and other advantages of being digital.

Re: This time, it feels different

#122

Post by mensetmanusman »

blibble wrote: post #87
terminalcommand wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my firm, it is the contrary. We are advised to remove any personal data in our queries and double check the output. We are encouraged to use chatgpt/bing on a daily basis to learn it. Our firm is also planning to purchase an LLM that will work locally.

in my (very large) Western firm: it's exactly what I said

The market will determine the winner: a few high profile cases where AI enhanced arguments dominate people who are tying their hands behind their back will turn the tide.

Re: This time, it feels different

#123

Post by Swizec »

nologic01 wrote: post #120

Geez people. Please learn to identify hypes, but most importantly the causes of hypes. LLM is fundamentally information processing technology. Not the path to AGI, not an emerging sentience. The reason "this time" feels so amazing is that the unwashed masses suddenly got access to new information processing technology in a context where their tools been stagnant for decades . Not because it was not possible, but beca…

Your post boils down to “This is the next iPhone moment”.

The tech existed but was clunky and unavailable. Now it’s good and accessible enough to be used by most people. This is how technological revolutions happen!

Edison didn’t invent the lightbulb. But he made it useful and invented power distribution. That’s the important part. Consumers don’t care about technology that exists in a lab that they cannot even begin to fathom how to use.

Mind you last year even experts didn’t think LLMs would be able to do what they’re doing right now for at least another 5 to 6 years. This also is in part a side-effect of the hype and extra attention. All this attention causes an acceleration.

Re: This time, it feels different

#124

Post by braindead_in »

> To those who believe that new jobs will emerge at meaningful rates to absorb the losses and shocks, what exactly are those new jobs?

Prompt Engineering. The highest paid will be the ones who are able to extract the most value out of LLMs with the least effort.

Re: This time, it feels different

#125

Post by olddustytrail »

300bps wrote: post #34

imagine what better, faster, more “intelligent” systems to follow in the wake of what exists today would be capable of doing Is this a given? Sure it will continue to improve but by how much? 200% or 2%? That’s the question. Anyone could’ve measured my height when I was 14 and predicted that I would be 35 feet tall today. But human bodies have limits. What are the limits of LLMs? It’s somewhere between ChatGPT-4 and…

Sure, it might, but considering recent improvements and zero evidence of those improvements slowing, it's a rather bizarre article of faith.

Re: This time, it feels different

#126

Post by Mezzie »

grugagag wrote: post #119
Mezzie wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, but a reasonable case could be made for viewing standard of living as material access so I think that's where a lot of us talk past one another. Also American society is pretty disdainful of security, historically.

Isn’t housing part of that material access which has become harder to maintain and access by more and more? People living paycheck to paycheck to pay huge rents, people living in tents and so on seems to indicate some decrease in the standard of living.

I agree with you.

The argument against this would be things like homes being larger now and housing standards having risen (even slum units have things like fridges and electricity). I don't think those are compelling arguments because often going without those things is not allowed/not an option, but that's what the other side's argument would be.

Re: This time, it feels different

#127

Post by mkr-hn »

gbear605 wrote: post #93
blibble wrote: post #39

> I have come across people who do programming, legal work, business, accountancy and finance, fashion design, architecture, graphic design, research, teaching, cooking, travel planning, event management etc., all of whom have started using the same tool, ChatGPT if I found out my lawyer/account/tax advisor/broker had fed my privileged information into ChatGPT I'd be reporting them to their regulator and they'd be st…

I know sellers realtors are using it today, with their clients permission. (And presumably some are doing it without permission.)

I read a post from someone who got as far as showing up to view an apartment on reservation only to find there was no reservation or available apartment. "Oh, that's our chatbot!"

Re: This time, it feels different

#128

Post by [deleted] »

jprete wrote: post #28
swores wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you call Apple "industry leaders" pre-2000s, though? But anyway, they didn't specify all industry leaders, and it's pretty solid that many leaders were knocked off their perches.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

[deleted]

Re: This time, it feels different

#129

Post by ilaksh »

300bps wrote: post #34

imagine what better, faster, more “intelligent” systems to follow in the wake of what exists today would be capable of doing Is this a given? Sure it will continue to improve but by how much? 200% or 2%? That’s the question. Anyone could’ve measured my height when I was 14 and predicted that I would be 35 feet tall today. But human bodies have limits. What are the limits of LLMs? It’s somewhere between ChatGPT-4 and…

Even if you (obviously falsely, in my opinion) believe that nothing gets qualitatively better than GPT-4, we know that the speed will increase by AT LEAST one order of magnitude. PaLM 2 seems marginally less intelligent than GPT-4 but is probably 10 or 20 times faster already.

Given that we have increased computing performance by more than a dozen orders of magnitude already and we are now optimizing for a very specific application, it is almost a given that we will get at least one more order of magnitude performance improvement in the near term.

There are also new approaches like crossbar arrays of memristors that, if we can make them work, promises at least two more orders of magnitude performance increases. Quite possibly more.

Claude can read a whole book and answer a question about it in 20 seconds. Not quite at GPT-4 level but no reason to believe that isn't possible in the near future.

Computing performance and efficiency have consistently increased by orders of magnitude as we leverage previous generations of systems to make improvements and when necessary invent new paradigms.

Re: This time, it feels different

#130

Post by Sindisil »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #81
gabereiser wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

friendster, napster, yellow pages, arcades, Pontiac, Saturn, JNCO, geocities, iomega, Sun Microsystems, CREATIVE. So many bodies...

And DEC.

If Kmart is on the list, Sears obviously should be as well.
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