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Revenue is easy, profit is harder

edge.ceo

121–130 of 175 posts

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#121
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also people thinking that Google and Meta won’t be looked at like Oracle and IBM in 10-20 years are probably way too confident in the status quo

Microsoft was founded before oracle and is among the top 5 largest tech co's. IBM and oracle may not be as big as they used to but they're still huge. oracle in particular is at a near all time high.

It's funny to see how people on this site so vastly overvalue organic growth and undervalue inorganic growth. (It makes sense given the target audience, obviously.)

You can absolutely grow a company by all metrics (revenue, income, market share, market cap) just by having a bunch of MBAs that make well-negotiated acquisitions.

It's basically all IBM and Oracle do these days: buy up smaller B2B software, integrate it into their portfolio as a new product or a feature for an existing one, then sell the hell out of it to their existing customer base.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#122
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When investing in different industries (construction vs tech), it's often useful to think about them in the context of asset classes. Specifically, construction is more tied to either real estate, hospitality or government contracts. These often raise money via a bond (debt) offering or an equity with a very well-worn finance model. These projects require a lot of upfront capital (billions not unusual for roads) and…

This doesn’t answer OPs question, IMO (or my interpretation of what OP was saying is wrong). Sure, construction and high-growth tech startups are different investment opportunities. They have different risk profiles. As someone managing money, shouldn’t you be looking to mitigate risk to maximize returns? Why give money to the startup which has an idea and no experience running a business, managing capital, accountin…

You beat me to the follow-up! I actually answered this below. I'll address it directly but it may get flagged as copy / paste so apologies in advance.

> As someone managing money, shouldn’t you be looking to mitigate risk to maximize returns?

- Asset classes aren't just about returns, they also have other dimensions like volatility ("beta"), liquidity, correlation, and time horizon. Being able to sell something easily is valuable, and not being subject to crazy swings is also valuable. Unfortunately those two often are at odds. These features make for different investment mixes, and also affect how you can get leverage (loans) with them as collateral. Specifically, real estate is super easy to get a loan on since it's not very volatile. Pre-IPO startup shares are very hard to get a loan on, because they are both volatile and illiquid.

> Why give money to the startup which has an idea and no experience running a business, managing capital, accounting, etc.?

- Companies that have physical assets often have a focus on operations work (e.g., where do I economically source asphalt near Berlin?). Intellectual Property businesses often have a focus [exclusively] on product work (e.g., what new software feature does EMEA sales need to make their quarter?), where accounting, etc is less correlated with outsized outcomes. One is quite literally, building the value mile by mile at a relatively high cost. The other is more "unlocking" value that was so unbalanced something with minimal physical footprint can access it.

> Wouldn’t money be much better spent on a startup that had all those things? When looking for a company to invest in, shouldn’t these be top priority? I don’t buy that VC and high growth companies need to be as risky as they are. I suspect a lot of it is bad decisions and lack of due diligence.

- Ideally you have all those things, but sometimes you can't get all the things in a deal and shaping it is the value you provide. For non-public investments, a lot of the value is from either shaping the deal yourself or getting access to the right people. It's easy for me to invest $1000 in GE. I can't just walk up to Pixar and ask to invest $1000 in their next film. Same is true for startups. You either need to seed the deal (be the lead investor), or have the access to contribute. Building these relationships is a lifetime of work. This is why people specialize.

- Adding to above, VCs themselves are even more specialized, and different stages require different balances of due diligence vs speed. VC's typically stratify by company stage (seed, A, B, C, mezzanine, etc), industry, geography, thesis, etc. These are often driven by the philosophies of the partners, fund size, or by the LPs with specific expectations. To give a very direct example, GV with exactly one LP and invests in A-stage or later, has very different goals than YC, which has very different goals than the venture arm of a big-12 pharma company like Roche (Pharma is also intellectual property based). It's specialization all the way down.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#123
I disagree wholly with the “revenue is easy, profit is harder” idea. I suppose it is tautologically true since profitable ventures are a subset of ones which generate revenue, so more businesses generate revenue than generate profits, thus it is is “easier”. However, that is only at the present instant. That statement does not factor in all the companies that generated only revenue and no profit and are now extinct. When considering these, it is vastly easier to be profitable than to have revenue.

Without infusions of external capital it is literally impossible to generate revenue without profit for any period longer than one can sustain their losses. Isn’t it way easier to focus on businesses that do this, that meet a demand people have, and are thus profitable? Instead, investments are made in areas where demand has to be induced via advertising spend, expenses have to be reduced by relying on the ability to “rapidly scale”, and the business has to sap round after round of investor capital at increasingly higher and increasingly more ridiculous valuations with the hopes that it can weather that storm.

When considering the above, it seems to me that we are systematically mis-allocating capital to bad investments. As the saying goes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You can see people behaving in accordance with this during high-risk periods, e.g. COVID, when capital shifted toward durable goods and physical assets (pre QE infinity). But for some reason, when the risk is not literally right in front of investors, they do not see it. That risk, the integral of which increases over larger periods of time, eats away at the growth rates of companies. I suspect risk would spoil the math that makes a lot of the high-growth companies worth anything, if it were properly accounted for. Not to mention, negative externalities are unknown and thus largely ignored in startups, and thus cannot be accounted for.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad had great ideas for businesses. Yet each one he started failed for him. Why, because he has such unrealistic view on how long the payback period will be. He even founded with a partner what is now a national company, but at the time it did not make a big profit in the first year, so he sold his share of the business. He had "Get rich Quick" fever, and never saw that bussiness rarely become an overnight success…

One of my finance professors mentioned that ~70% of business fail in their first two years, and ~90% of those failures are purely due to a lack of working capital, not due to any fundamental flaw in the business plan. If they kept doing the same thing and just had more money and time, things would have eventually worked out. People start businesses for emotional reasons, not logical ones, and vastly, vastly underesti…

> One of my finance professors mentioned that ~70% of business fail in their first two years, and ~90% of those failures are purely due to a lack of working capital, not due to any fundamental flaw in the business plan.

Having seen my share of failed businesses - I'm very skeptical of these numbers.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#125
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When investing in different industries (construction vs tech), it's often useful to think about them in the context of asset classes. Specifically, construction is more tied to either real estate, hospitality or government contracts. These often raise money via a bond (debt) offering or an equity with a very well-worn finance model. These projects require a lot of upfront capital (billions not unusual for roads) and…

This doesn’t answer OPs question, IMO (or my interpretation of what OP was saying is wrong). Sure, construction and high-growth tech startups are different investment opportunities. They have different risk profiles. As someone managing money, shouldn’t you be looking to mitigate risk to maximize returns? Why give money to the startup which has an idea and no experience running a business, managing capital, accountin…

> I have heard in the past that the majority of startups fail, and that successful startups are often founded by people who have founded (often unsuccessful) startups before. When looking for a company to invest in, shouldn’t these be top priority?

If they already are, either directly, or because “founding a startup” (as if it doesn’t get funded, its not really a startup) is heavily dependent on connections from the beginning, that would explain the effect itself.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my finance professors mentioned that ~70% of business fail in their first two years, and ~90% of those failures are purely due to a lack of working capital, not due to any fundamental flaw in the business plan. If they kept doing the same thing and just had more money and time, things would have eventually worked out. People start businesses for emotional reasons, not logical ones, and vastly, vastly underesti…

> One of my finance professors mentioned that ~70% of business fail in their first two years, and ~90% of those failures are purely due to a lack of working capital, not due to any fundamental flaw in the business plan. Having seen my share of failed businesses - I'm very skeptical of these numbers.

... skeptical in which direction?

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#127
This is an accounting method that's different from the traditional ones. That's not to say it's wrong. It's just interesting.

However, "customer acquisition cost" seems to imply that that customer is now "yours" and he'll keep buying without any more spending from you. That assumption is questionable. Maybe he's just on loan to you, and fickle as all hell. Did Uber "acquire" me just because I used them a few times?

Traditional accounting is "fixed cost" plus "variable cost." You build your factory (fixed cost), and then produce widgets (variable cost). For a long time, you're amortizing the fixed costs, and eventually the price of the widgets is all profit, assuming the factory still runs.

In that method, every customer is a random draw from a raffle, and you have no guarantees that the customer will keep buying. They may, but they may not. You have to keep getting new ones to even keep your base stable.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of my finance professors mentioned that ~70% of business fail in their first two years, and ~90% of those failures are purely due to a lack of working capital, not due to any fundamental flaw in the business plan. If they kept doing the same thing and just had more money and time, things would have eventually worked out. People start businesses for emotional reasons, not logical ones, and vastly, vastly underesti…

> One of my finance professors mentioned that ~70% of business fail in their first two years, and ~90% of those failures are purely due to a lack of working capital, not due to any fundamental flaw in the business plan. Having seen my share of failed businesses - I'm very skeptical of these numbers.

Also skeptical. How would you determine if a business would have succeeded if it had working capital to continue?

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#129

This is an accounting method that's different from the traditional ones. That's not to say it's wrong. It's just interesting. However, "customer acquisition cost" seems to imply that that customer is now "yours" and he'll keep buying without any more spending from you. That assumption is questionable. Maybe he's just on loan to you, and fickle as all hell. Did Uber "acquire" me just because I used them a few times? T…

This is primarily a growth model/strategy not an accounting method, and these metrics have been very common in startupland for quite a few years.

Customer acquisition cost (CAC) is paired with lifetime value (LTV). The length of time you're on "loan" to the company doesn't really matter as long as LTV is higher than CAC.

This model is commonly used for subscription businesses, where assuming each purchase is independent is not really appropriate because they are recurring.

Re: Revenue is easy, profit is harder

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a lot of theses articles are pretty basic corporate finance One take: yes, and venture-backed companies often forget or ignore the basics of corporate finance. Another take: orthodox corporate finance isn’t tailored for start-ups. If you’re developing a product, GAAP income is meaningless. So we bootstrap interim financial metrics, e.g. eyeballs and ARPUs and DAUs (oh my!). In truth, the latter dominates at the ear…

Actually the problem with startups is that they focus on corporate finance too much. When in reality they should be acting like a small business e.g. florist. Often these startups are failing because of basic cash-flow management.

> they should be acting like a small business e.g. florist

Small businesses and startups are delineated by scaling potential. Running a startup like a florist is ruinously-bad advice. Just as running a small business like a startup is stupid.

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