US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast • Hacker News Board

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#121

Post by kayodelycaon » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:49 PM UTC

perihelions wrote: post #51

Hopefully this isn't on that kind of hair-trigger that shoots down civilian airliners by mistake. It's happened literally dozens of times [0], so it's hard to believe any kind of blanket "this can't possibly happen because..." logic. Seems to be particularly likely to happen in panicky situations, or when someone has something to prove. E.g., the Soviet-American tensions surrounding an American spy plane, a RC-135, w…

Protocol is to visually identify the target. In the case of an airliner, they try to make visual contact with the pilots if they don’t respond by radio. There are visual verification methods commercial pilots are trained on.

And airliners have transponders and flight plans. If a civilian plane stopped talking to ATC, the Air Force is likely already involved.

Additionally, we’re not on a high-alert war footing like during the Cold War. As far as I know, we don’t have hostile military aircraft routinely flying with transponders off on our coasts.

Even if we did, I’m pretty sure the larger military radar systems that would be used to track this stuff can read transponders and separate out which plane is which.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#122

Post by hughw » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:49 PM UTC

dTal wrote: post #114

next_xibalba wrote: post #108

I've wondered if these incursions are intentional on the part of the Chinese to provoke a precedent setting response to airborne (and beyond) surveillance. "They shoot down our surveillance balloons, giving us precedent to shoot down their high altitude drone planes or satellites in the future."

This is a very reasonable explanation for the otherwise mysterious question of why even use an (obvious, provocative) balloon in the first place, when China has perfectly good satellites. It may not be exactly what they have in mind, but I think it's the right way to think about the question - they are engineering scenarios which work to their advantage no matter how the US responds. US shoots them down? Play outrage…

Obvious, provocative.... and unsteerable.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#123

Post by jnurmine » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:49 PM UTC

jollyllama wrote: post #56

snerbles wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike previous Sidewinder iterations with a single-sensor thermal seeker, the AIM-9X has a thermal imaging seeker - it was used to shoot down the much larger balloon last week. https://www.navair.navy.mil/product/AIM-9X-Sidewinder

So it doesn't really narrow it down that much, then. Could be a plane, could be a balloon.

If it was not a drone, and "not a balloon", what could it be?

Assuming this was a drone, the "car-sized", "unmanned", "not a balloon", "not maneuverable" (!?), the operating altitude (40k feet / 13 km), and use of AIM9X (IR/heat seeking) should narrow down the possible drones.

Also, one thing I pondered: why F22 instead of F35 to shoot it down? Maybe a question of availability. But, at least publically the F35 operating ceiling is lower than F22, so I was thinking whether the object was in reality higher than the publically known F35 operating ceiling.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#124

Post by LarryMullins » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:49 PM UTC

sammalloy wrote: post #38

LinuxBender wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet and posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight" and "Object the size of a small car" [1] according to General Ryder No details beyond this yet due to classification restrictions. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=544hoprTeTw

John Kirby of the National Security Council said he would not call it a balloon, according to NBC News. What was it then?

Maybe it was a balloon but Kirby is being curmudgeonly and thinks it should be called an "Unmanned Buoyant Aircraft (UBA)" or something like that. These national security types love wordy terms and acronyms. Maybe he thinks calling a balloon a balloon makes it sound too trivial or something.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#125

Post by LinuxBender » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:49 PM UTC

sammalloy wrote: post #38

LinuxBender wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet and posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight" and "Object the size of a small car" [1] according to General Ryder No details beyond this yet due to classification restrictions. [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=544hoprTeTw

John Kirby of the National Security Council said he would not call it a balloon, according to NBC News. What was it then?

We will not know until the DoD provide the public report on this information. Everyone is speculating so I would wait for the official report.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#126

Post by r3trohack3r » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:50 PM UTC

themodelplumber wrote: post #105

r3trohack3r wrote: post #95

There was a fun theory on UFOs I saw recently. The general premise is this: U.S. adversaries realized they couldn't compete with the U.S. on spending. So they got creative and loaded the equivalent of Pringles cans up with a bunch of sensors, hooked them up to either a balloons or relatively cheap unmanned aircraft, and sent them through U.S. airspace to collect intelligence. They'd occasionally get caught (perhaps o…

Funny, though tbh it seems like there are cheaper ways to cause the US to spend gobs of cash. I even hesitate to mention some ideas that immediately come to mind that would be easier/more efficient to really nail than the Pringles can idea. Plus many of the more prominent base-personnel sightings land quite a bit far from that particular ballpark. Take a look into the Rendlesham Forest incident for example. The probl…

Had never heard of the Rendlesham Forest incident - what a rabbit hole. Thank you for sharing.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#127

Post by pixl97 » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:50 PM UTC

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #86

TheAdamist wrote: post #73

Cheap balloon vs expensive missile, seems a good way to bankrupt us by sending continuous balloons.

A government that spends more money on their military than the rest of the world combined isn't at risk of bankruptcy from firing a couple missiles. We're at risk of bankruptcy because our debt is 31 trillion dollars and in June we won't even be able to issue securities to continue bullshitting ourselves out of cutting spending. Welcome to America, we're broke because we spent all our money on guns rather than infras…

We spend more on Healthcare and education per capital than almost any other country. Don't let people bullshit you on the amount spent. Now results on dollars spent is a different question with a different answer.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#128

Post by ajross » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:50 PM UTC

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #86

TheAdamist wrote: post #73

Cheap balloon vs expensive missile, seems a good way to bankrupt us by sending continuous balloons.

A government that spends more money on their military than the rest of the world combined isn't at risk of bankruptcy from firing a couple missiles. We're at risk of bankruptcy because our debt is 31 trillion dollars and in June we won't even be able to issue securities to continue bullshitting ourselves out of cutting spending. Welcome to America, we're broke because we spent all our money on guns rather than infras…

Standard reply to debt rhetoric: US debt service costs measured against the economy are not particularly high historically: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYOIGDA188S

The 80's were much, much worse. If we were ever going to go bankrupt, it was in the early Clinton administration due to the Reagan/Bush spending boom. We got through just fine. Those bonds were all paid off decades ago.

Be very very very cautious any time someone comes at you with this kind of hyperbole about federal debt. They're selling you something.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#129

Post by csa » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:50 PM UTC

MonkeyMalarky wrote: post #23

moose_man wrote: post #11

Probably not a great sign of things to come.

I'd say it feels like a return to the era of cold war tensions but I wouldn't know, I was born around when the Berlin Wall fell. What say you older HNers, is this what it was like?

I agree with dctoedt.

This is nothing.

Re: US jet shoots down unknown object flying off Alaska coast

#130

Post by nonethewiser » Fri, Feb 10, 2023, 9:51 PM UTC

bagels wrote: post #76

zoklet-enjoyer wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a link or name of the guy? I haven't heard about this

edit: Maybe this? https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-air-fo...

I dont see anything crazy there

> Minihan said in the memo that because both Taiwan and the U.S. will have presidential elections in 2024, the U.S. will be “distracted,” and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an opportunity to move on Taiwan.