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7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

earthquake.usgs.gov

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Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#121

Post by kelnos »

anonu wrote: post #33

This guy somehow predicted it? https://twitter.com/hogrbe/status/1621479563720118273?t=uZuu... Lucky or good?

He fails the basic tests for real predictions: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes

Also if you click through to to the organization he works for (not linking; no google juice for them), they're clearly quacks: they seem to believe that geometric shapes made by various planets in the solar system can be used to predict earthquakes. Note that they aren't even talking about gravitational effects (which are near zero, anyway), just the specific shapes. Complete nonsense.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#122

Post by NoZebra120vClip »

midoridensha wrote: post #107
rippercushions wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can ask politely though, and spellings and names do change over time.

They can ask, but their request is stupid. The English language does not have any kind of facility for umlauted characters.

The façade of your rôle in the naïve crusade against Türkiye's self-determination will not last for an æternity, my friend. You'd better update your résumé!

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#123

Post by kelnos »

ajdude wrote: post #108
pg_bot wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm this guy's focus on planetary movements and lunar geometry light up the parts of my brain reserved for detecting quackery. I would bet that he got extremely lucky with his timing.

Years ago I made an observation that an earthquake would happen based on a near earth object. It ended up being the one in Chile. I do wonder if there's some kind of correlation considering that green comet is flying by

That's not how physics works.

The sun completely dominates all other bodies in the solar system when it comes to gravitational effects on Earth (even the moon has less of an effect than the sun, despite its proximity). The Earth doesn't even notice this comet's existence, gravitationally speaking.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#124

Post by midoridensha »

duluca wrote: post #116
midoridensha wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Turkey" is the correct spelling in English. The Turkish government doesn't get to dictate what their country is called in other languages.

Lol. Yes they do. There are dozens of instances of names of places being changed due to what the local population wants it to be called. Putting politics aside, disambiguating from the bird turkey is smart from a marketing and tourism sense.

It's not smart when they're demanding the use of a Turkish word that doesn't fit into English characters or pronunciation rules.

And why aren't they making the same demands of other languages anyway? How about Chinese? How exactly would their new name fit into Chinese, a language that doesn't use Latin characters at all? Not to mention all the other European languages that do?

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#125

Post by kelnos »

csomar wrote: post #70
pg_bot wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm this guy's focus on planetary movements and lunar geometry light up the parts of my brain reserved for detecting quackery. I would bet that he got extremely lucky with his timing.

Indeed. He'd have had more respect (and less suspicion) if he's tweet was something like: foreshake detected at xx,yy location, given the nature of the location, high probability of an earthquake of 7.5M. He's fishing for attention from the general public.

Even if he said that, it'd be nonsense. Foreshocks usually do not precede larger earthquakes (https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes). Yes, sometimes they do, but it's uncommon. If every time you see foreshocks you predict a larger earthquake, sure, you'll very very occasionally be right. But you haven't done anything useful with your predictions.

(Note that I wouldn't be surprised if this is the kind of person who makes tons of predictions on Twitter, and then deletes the tweets when they turn out to be incorrect, leaving only the correct ones.)

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#126

Post by pyuser583 »

duluca wrote: post #116
midoridensha wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Turkey" is the correct spelling in English. The Turkish government doesn't get to dictate what their country is called in other languages.

Lol. Yes they do. There are dozens of instances of names of places being changed due to what the local population wants it to be called. Putting politics aside, disambiguating from the bird turkey is smart from a marketing and tourism sense.

Ok, fine. But from now on I’m buying a Thanksgiving Türkiye.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#127

Post by kelnos »

csomar wrote: post #96
jacquesm wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, but it is specific enough to at least see if he can do it again, once = random, twice = coincidence but the chances of doing this twice are pretty remote.

What's exactly specific? I'm not an expert in Geology but my understanding is that these hot spots are largely known. The outlier prediction will be for a location of an earthquake outside these hot spots. Here is a random map I found on the internet but I think matches a few ones I've seen before: https://broadview.sacredsf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ma...

Heh, that map shows the west coast of the US as completely covered. I assure you that we don't have daily earthquakes that are even noticeable, let alone destructive. I live in an area covered by orange circles, and have for nearly 20 years, and I've never felt a M7+ earthquake. The ones I usually do feel are no more than M4.5 or so, and happen at most a few times a year.

My point is that it doesn't really matter if you "predict" an earthquake inside or outside these hot spots: you will nearly always be wrong. And when you are right, it will be due to luck.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#128

Post by tradertef »

linhns wrote: post #115
vbezhenar wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did the buildings collapse? They don't have a build code for seismic-dangerous zones? Or the possibility of this earthquake was never predicted?

This one really came as a surprise, and since people often only act when there's a precedent, sadly the building collapsed. They will learn from this, like the Japanese did.

No, they won't, unfortunately. Turkey is in the fault lines and there was a 7.6 earthquake in 1999. A lot has been said but not much have been done.

Just a couple of years ago, there was "amnesty" for buildings. My father in-law was bragging how his building, which did not have any inspection or permits during the construction, has gotten amnesty for a small fee and he could sell flats to others now..

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#129

Post by AYBABTME »

midoridensha wrote: post #117
joshuahaglund wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US State Department has already adopted the new spelling, so you're wrong. https://www.npr.org/2023/01/08/1147704945/the-state-departme... It's silly to think things don't change and rude to call people names they don't want to be called

News flash: The US State Department is not the authority on the English language either. Nor is the US government. The only authority on the English language is popular usage.

News flash: popular usage will shift based on popular intentions, and you might be in the losing camp here.

Re: 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits Turkiye

#130

Post by pyuser583 »

jcranmer wrote: post #112
midoridensha wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can ask, but their request is stupid. The English language does not have any kind of facility for umlauted characters.

How naïve of you. (Although, technically, that's a diaeresis, not an umlaut.)

What’s the difference?

BTW, that spelling is borderline archaic. It’s allowable, but so is “naive,” which is probably better style.

I wouldn’t use semi-archiac spellings as a precedent.

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