Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast • Hacker News Board

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#121

Post by ryanSrich » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:09 PM UTC

grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

> A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates

I believe we're going to double dip. We already dipped before the holidays. We'll see one more very painful quarter, which may not be Q1, but Q2 or Q3. From what I've seen, Series B+ is essentially impossible right now unless you're in the top 0.0001% of companies. Even then, if you're that operationally efficient, you might even hold off on funding until you can pull a higher valuation in 24-36 months.

As far as tech layoffs go. I think this has been coming for nearly a decade. Companies have been hiring at what seemed an insane pace for so long that it just became the norm. My personal opinions on Elon aside, he proved how bloated a lot silicon valley tech companies are/were.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#122

Post by moffkalast » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:14 PM UTC

calr wrote: post #85

In my mind, Flexport is part of the "real" economy of moving atoms. They don't fall into the more fluffy "we are a startup that helps other startups start-up". I wonder if this is an early sign for a rough recession that spills outside of the current VC-backed tech slowdown.

> we are a startup that helps other startups start-up

Well that's YCombinator in a nutshell.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#123

Post by warent » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:15 PM UTC

abadger9 wrote: post #110

This is one company i've always wanted to work for- my mother is a CTO of a company in the same space/different aspect of the pipeline so I knew this company was going to do well when it entered the YC batch, but I've never even received a screening interview. Hope i can apply once the economy recovers

I interviewed a couple years back and found it to be a very weird, cold process. It's a neat business model but I don't know about their culture.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#124

Post by saos » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:16 PM UTC

coolbreezetft22 wrote: post #43

I interviewed for a software engineering position here literally just yesterday.

> we are in the process of doubling our software engineering talent and moving to single threaded business organizations to build world class products faster, and we will continue to invest in delivering best-in-class operational execution for our customers.

Will be fine.

I wonder what roles they elimated though. Good question for you to ask

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#125

Post by idopmstuff » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:16 PM UTC

grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off.

That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have serious financial problems like homes getting foreclosed (not to say it's not possible but they're much more likely to have a cushion to keep making payments). If they pull back on their discretionary spending plus stop doing things like driving up housing/car/stock prices by putting money into those things, that feels like it could be the basis for inflation slowing down without a huge uptick in unemployment and everything that comes with it.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#126

Post by ryanSrich » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:18 PM UTC

warent wrote: post #118

grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

EDIT: Thank you all for generously sharing your time in writing up such thoughtful answers. -- Would love to hear more on your perspective / insight. This is all intentional, right? My understanding is that the fed is leaning into this particularly hard in order to dislodge the stubborn housing bubble. For an individual (someone who isn't a current business owner), does this basically mean we should continue stockpil…

2008 lasted nearly 17 months. The hard part is deciding when the recession actually started. The media and government is in denial, so they'd tell you we aren't even in a recession yet. But the rule of thumb is typically two negative quarters of GDP growth, which we hit this summer.

If you run a VC backed business my suggestion is 24-30 months of runway is a good starting point.

As far as individuals go, it's not a bad idea to mirror this advice. Have essentially 2 to 2.5 years of income saved in the event that you get laid off and can't find a job for a long time. Hopefully it never comes to that, but it never hurts to be prepared.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#127

Post by 72f988bf » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:18 PM UTC

dakiol wrote: post #92

zitterbewegung wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are naive they just want to rehire positions at lower rates if you see in the article they are cutting 600 but are hiring for 350 to 400 people. It would immediately allow them to replace higher wages workers that have been with the company with entry level positions . Also it seems like an identification of long term trends and they figure they want to invest in automation.

Well, that's what I said. They are doing it not because of "bad times" or "recession" or "post-covid era", they are doing it because that's what they wanted to do from the beginning. They couldn't do a massive layoff in the past because it would get them bad rep, but nowadays, it barely is a thing anymore (just look at this thread: people commenting "well, at least the severance is nice". What the hell? Massive layof…

> They couldn't do a massive layoff in the past because it would get them bad rep

Forget about "bad rep", it was a bad economic decision: why let go a slight underperformer (a now-known 0.8x engineer) that you hired in 2015 at pay X, if in exchange you hire a "expected normal 1.0x engineer", but at a price of 1.8*X in 2021 due to crazy escalation of SWE salaries in that period.

(Assuming you have a perfected/more picky hiring process that knows the median hire will be a 1.0x engineer)

Now in 2023, the situation is different: you can hire a "expected normal 1.0x engineer" but at pay 0.8*X (adjusted for inflation - ratios all made up)

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#128

Post by notch656c » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:19 PM UTC

idopmstuff wrote: post #125

grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off. That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have…

I make a good wage and the first thing I'll do if I get the boot is stop buying things from the plebs. No eating out and paying the cook. No day care paying the working class daycare worker. No buying lumber for house projects paying the logger and mill worker. No cars paying the auto worker. etc, etc. Less toys for the kid meaning less trucking and shipping work.

Compound that at scale and it will definitely have an effect.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#129

Post by eloff » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:19 PM UTC

warent wrote: post #118

grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

EDIT: Thank you all for generously sharing your time in writing up such thoughtful answers. -- Would love to hear more on your perspective / insight. This is all intentional, right? My understanding is that the fed is leaning into this particularly hard in order to dislodge the stubborn housing bubble. For an individual (someone who isn't a current business owner), does this basically mean we should continue stockpil…

This is all about inflation, not housing. Housing is just going to get caught in the crossfire.

If you have a low mortgage, hang onto that! Otherwise standard advice applies, try to keep at least 6 months expenses in cash or cash equivalents. Don’t make big purchases.

Re: Flexport slashes 20% of global workforce over weak 2023 volume forecast

#130

Post by grey-area » Wed, Jan 11, 2023, 11:19 PM UTC

warent wrote: post #118

grey-area wrote: post #112

A global recession is coming against a backdrop of the Fed raising rates, that is going to be very painful. A lot of people here don't seem to realise this is the case or are in denial. This is a bubble bursting, this is serious. Lots of companies are laying off workers or at least freezing hiring because they anticipate earnings cratering, or are already seeing it happen. They haven't reported on it yet, but they wi…

EDIT: Thank you all for generously sharing your time in writing up such thoughtful answers. -- Would love to hear more on your perspective / insight. This is all intentional, right? My understanding is that the fed is leaning into this particularly hard in order to dislodge the stubborn housing bubble. For an individual (someone who isn't a current business owner), does this basically mean we should continue stockpil…

If you'd like more insight on where this is going, I'd recommend looking into Jeremy Grantham.

He called this correctly in 2021, before it burst: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/grantham-this-is-a-bub...

He feels there is still farther to fall (and I agree with him there): https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/prepare-for-an-epic-...

Falling stock prices are really a reflection of real-world problems - while it obviously feels in the US like everything is fine (judging from the many comments saying this here on this thread), everything is not fine, companies looking at their P/L and laying off staff are not fine, and the Fed is deliberately going to cause a recession and cause unemployment to stop inflation, which is a very brutal and indirect tool to do so.

This will not be a soft landing.