Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed • Hacker News Board

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#121

Post by colinmhayes » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:33 AM UTC

JonahSussman wrote: post #45

woodruffw wrote: post #36

This is maybe tangential of me to say, but since this post is coming from an EA forum: I think the cozy relationship between EA and FTX has done immense damage to the public image and standing of the EA movement. I've never been an EA person (much less a utilitarian) but I can appreciate the meat and potatoes of applied ethics, especially when those ethics are applied consistently . The infusion of cryptocurrency fun…

I'm a bit behind on the times, but I'm failing to see how the philosophy of effective altruism and cryptocurrency are related. Do you know how the two got intertwined?

OP is complaining about SBF coming into ea and using his crypto money to donate huge amounts to speculative and sometimes even harmful causes such as ai safety and that Oregon house seat instead of meat and potatos ea causes of global health/poverty and animal rights

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#122

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:33 AM UTC

denlekke wrote: post #67

hailwren wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coinbase avoided this fate by being a us regulated company. FTX.us is still above water. It’s the Bahamas based company that was able to cook the books and is now defunct. As for Binance, they have the SAFU ( https://academy.binance.com/en/glossary/secure-asset-fund-fo... ) which they just topped up to $1B at current market prices (today). You can verify the balances on chain, but there aren’t any statements about ou…

$1B doesn’t rly reassure me unless I’ve misunderstood. Ftx had $6B in withdraws in 72hours (which they fulfilled) so I don’t rly think binance has shown anything that would provide real protection against a bank run like we just saw.

[deleted]

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#123

Post by woodruffw » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:33 AM UTC

hither_shores wrote: post #117

woodruffw wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My (outsider's) understanding is that the "longtermist" sub-school of EA has grown over the years, and has developed increasingly convoluted and speculative rationales for behavior that would otherwise be considered unethical. The example I'm most familiar with is calculating utils in terms of the expected total human population of the galaxy, were we to achieve interstellar travel: it's not inconceivable that orders…

> Consequently, we should divert money away from the welfare of people living today and towards efforts that maximize the likelihood of a galaxy filled with colonized planets. If that sounds ridiculous, it's because it is. It sounds ridiculous to you because you framed it in an uncharitable way. Another way of saying "maximize the likelihood of a galaxy filled with colonized planets", so far as contemporary people ar…

> Even a marginal reduction in the risk of nuclear war, for instance, would be a very good thing.

Nobody disagrees with this. But since you brought it up, I think it's worth asking: what precisely has the EA movement done to reduce, even marginally, the risk of a nuclear war?

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#124

Post by maxbond » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:34 AM UTC

ETH_start wrote: post #87

woodruffw wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My (outsider's) understanding is that the "longtermist" sub-school of EA has grown over the years, and has developed increasingly convoluted and speculative rationales for behavior that would otherwise be considered unethical. The example I'm most familiar with is calculating utils in terms of the expected total human population of the galaxy, were we to achieve interstellar travel: it's not inconceivable that orders…

>>If that sounds ridiculous, it's because it is. Based on how you described it, I don't see what's ridiculous about it.

It is utter hubris to put the lives of fictional future people, mere characters in a story you've invented, over the lives of real people alive today.

It can justify virtually any action. The future is unknowable, so we can spin a new yarn every time we want to justify a new ethical compromise.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#125

Post by woodruffw » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:37 AM UTC

bagels wrote: post #119

woodruffw wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My (outsider's) understanding is that the "longtermist" sub-school of EA has grown over the years, and has developed increasingly convoluted and speculative rationales for behavior that would otherwise be considered unethical. The example I'm most familiar with is calculating utils in terms of the expected total human population of the galaxy, were we to achieve interstellar travel: it's not inconceivable that orders…

I know you're not defending this take, but I'm having trouble seeing how scam coins benefit future people.

My understanding is that the EA argument for cryptocurrency boils down obtaining the means to do the most good: they want to do the most good, and that requires financial resources. This allows them to justify just about any financial activity, so long as they can convince themselves that the long term utility of their behavior outweighs its downsides. Which gets us cryptocurrencies and oil company investments.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#126

Post by colinmhayes » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:37 AM UTC

shuckles wrote: post #72

woodruffw wrote: post #36

This is maybe tangential of me to say, but since this post is coming from an EA forum: I think the cozy relationship between EA and FTX has done immense damage to the public image and standing of the EA movement. I've never been an EA person (much less a utilitarian) but I can appreciate the meat and potatoes of applied ethics, especially when those ethics are applied consistently . The infusion of cryptocurrency fun…

This is an incorrect understanding of history. Eliezer Yudkowsky more or less created the rationalist movement, out of which EA emerged, as a way of funding AI safety research. MIRI is older than EA.

EA was created by will macAskill at Oxford.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#127

Post by hither_shores » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:37 AM UTC

bagels wrote: post #120

hither_shores wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consequently, we should divert money away from the welfare of people living today and towards efforts that maximize the likelihood of a galaxy filled with colonized planets. If that sounds ridiculous, it's because it is. It sounds ridiculous to you because you framed it in an uncharitable way. Another way of saying "maximize the likelihood of a galaxy filled with colonized planets", so far as contemporary people ar…

How does giving your money to crypto businesses improve the future?

When did I say it did?

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#128

Post by rnk » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:37 AM UTC

sanxiyn wrote: post #80

denlekke wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Devils advocate: how do we know binance hasn’t used BNB for collateral other than a tweet (which isn’t proof at all)

We don't, but it's good for Binance, so we can expect Binance to do so out of self interest. Avoiding wrong way risk is standard part of risk management.

if it was a mistake for ftx to avoid that, it was a mistake for all the other firms, yet the other firms did it like ftx. Probably all these other firms would have claimed they did standard risk management, yet so many have died, one after another.

So it's not satisfactory to say surely binance wouldn't do that, because it seems many of these companies were doing similar things but always claiming they were safe.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#129

Post by dylan604 » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:41 AM UTC

TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #74

hanniabu wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say that sucks but you were warned multiple times and still did it anyways so now you must deal with the repercussions

Yes, true. But If can still feel empathy for that person you love, for what he’s going through.

Nope, I think you have sympathy and empathy confused.

I can sympathize with them because losing your arse sucks. Been there, done that.

I can't empathize with them as I've just never been in that situation, nor would I ever put myself in that situation. I've been on my arse before, but because of other things mostly out of my control. Investing in a scam after being advised not to is not the same thing.

Re: Ftx.com Has Probably Collapsed

#130

Post by hither_shores » Thu, Nov 10, 2022, 5:43 AM UTC

woodruffw wrote: post #123

hither_shores wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consequently, we should divert money away from the welfare of people living today and towards efforts that maximize the likelihood of a galaxy filled with colonized planets. If that sounds ridiculous, it's because it is. It sounds ridiculous to you because you framed it in an uncharitable way. Another way of saying "maximize the likelihood of a galaxy filled with colonized planets", so far as contemporary people ar…

> Even a marginal reduction in the risk of nuclear war, for instance, would be a very good thing. Nobody disagrees with this. But since you brought it up, I think it's worth asking: what precisely has the EA movement done to reduce, even marginally, the risk of a nuclear war?

> what precisely has the EA movement done to reduce, even marginally, the risk of a nuclear war?

Nothing that I'm aware of. In general I think that most of the current "longtermist" organizations are useless - but that doesn't mean they're incorrect.