Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war • Hacker News Board

Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war

#121

Post by dsq » Mon, Oct 10, 2022, 8:58 AM UTC

jacknews wrote: post #83

I think the west needs to avoid being over-zealous in this fight, and let's face it we are heavily involved. This war seems to be quite personal for Putin, and if he is pushed back too hard, he may act irrationally, or be ousted, and then who knows what chaos may ensue. Europe should accept that cheap Russian gas is history. And so, a long drawn-out stalemate in Ukraine is maybe the best course, for everyone except R…

> will their nukes even work

Even if only a third if them work it’s enough. That’s the point about nukes, they provide egregious overkill.

Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war

#122

Post by kkfx » Mon, Oct 10, 2022, 11:41 AM UTC

Raemon777 wrote: post #114

kkfx wrote: post #61

Mh... A site named lesswrong who can't be seen without JS...

...seems false? At least with noscript on I can still see the site. (disclaimer: I work on the site. There's definitely reduced functionality if you don't have JS enabled, but surprised/confused if you can't see stuff at all)

That's what I get now https://i.ibb.co/XXch7ZL/2022-10-10-133602-1920x1080-scrot.p...

No Firefox reader support, nothing on the page, effectively the cause is that TPRB blocker block forum.effectivealtruism.org + NoScript blocking lesswrong.com js but anyway, without allowing the third party domain AND the main JS I can't see anything...

Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war

#123

Post by midoridensha » Thu, Oct 20, 2022, 1:15 AM UTC

Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote: post #88

Ug, nuclear war is a civilization ending event and everyone, even Putin, knows this and does not want this. The chances are therefore 0%.

You're assuming Putin is rational. That's not a good assumption. Putin is elderly, likely in very bad health or possibly dying of cancer, and wants to make his mark on the world. In addition, if he loses in Ukraine, he'll likely be assassinated, so he has absolutely nothing to lose here. There's not really a good reason he wouldn't launch armageddon. We can only hope that his underlings don't want to get themselves and all other Russians exterminated in nuclear fire and will refuse to carry out his orders.