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UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

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Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#121

Post by AlexandrB »

cirrus-clouds wrote: post #65
gyre007 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t believe Brits are capable of revolting against this. They did hit the streets in anti-lockdown protests though, which is ironic because in the grand scheme of things that (lockdown) was temporary, but this inflation wave will be madly felt for quite long.

Imagine if French citizens were facing energy bills as high as the UK (£5,816, €6850). French citizens would never tolerate such levels. From Reuters: " France has committed to capping an increase on regulated electricity costs at 4%. To help do this the government has ordered utility EDF (EDF.PA), which is 80% state owned, to sell more cheap nuclear power to rivals " (Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/…

Privatizing everything is great when things are going well. When the shit hits the fan it's nice for elected representatives to be able to force essential utilities to lose money.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#122

Post by jollyllama »

CommanderData wrote: post #9

We have a corrupt government and media that itch each others back. There's still a complete lack of urgency. A potential new prime minister trying to defend profits of energy companies recently on TV just shows you the Modus operandi of the political class. It might push people to riots in the streets.

The ever-prepared Swiss are preparing for the possibility of riots this winter. https://www.blick.ch/politik/oberster-polizeidirektor-fredy-...

Hyperinflation and energy crisis are here.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#123

Post by Someone1234 »

Schroedingersat wrote: post #53
Someone1234 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. But 5-years ago this national security reliance on foreign gas prices was well known, and little was done in the intervening time. The worry is that when the current crisis subsides that inaction will yet again fall back into favor. The solutions are, in part: - National gas storage reserve (to buffet price/supply spikes somewhat). - Expansion of green energy. - Programs to reduce usage (e.g. home and business…

COP is not efficiency. Efficiency is what you did / what you had the resources to do in an ideal world. That makes thermal chemical heating 20-50% efficient, thermal electric heating 10-30% and heat pumps 50-70% efficient (depending on where you draw the boundaries). You could also draw the limit at reduced carnot efficiency rather than reversibility, in which case heat pumps can be close to 100%

This is such pointless pedantry. Heat pumps having an efficiency greater than 1/100% is well known, well publicized, and you're trying to make some artificial distinction here that added nothing to this thread/context/discussion.

See:

https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/489467/can-a-hea...

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/06/heat-pumps-work-miracles/

I won't be further responding to this sub-topic, since it has nothing at all to do with the UK's inflation/energy prices. Plus frankly I feel like you're trying to confuse people rather than inform, I'd point people to the Department of Energy link above if they want to understand the benefit that modern heat pumps could offer to energy usage.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#124

Post by Latty »

mathverse wrote: post #117
Latty wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes? That's why I was very specific about who should pay it. This is such a common response to any taxation. It is true that any solution done wrong can make things worse, but that's not a reason not to try and solve the problem, it's a reason to do it right. The alternative, not taxing anyone much, has been tried: it gets us here, with public services collapsing and the country becoming less and less desirable to ex…

I have not seen this done correctly anywhere. I have only experienced taxes getting higher and higher with nothing much to show for it. Meanwhile the really rich folk are also getting richer.

The NHS is great. I've lived my life with access to it and in a society provided for by it, and wouldn't trade it for anything. Taxes have paid for it, and should continue to do so.

What alternative are you offering? Not taxing anyone much leaves us with a society that simply doesn't function, we see that right now. FUD about "well, they could tax the wrong people" is pretty irrelevant when we are already in a situation where most people are facing poverty and ruin. If this is all we can expect, then might as well roll the dice on doing it right.

Of course, the idea there is no way to actually tax the rich is absurd, we can do it, we have just had decades of government with no will to do so.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#125

Post by numeric83 »

azangru wrote: post #56
chrisstu wrote: post #27

A looming catastrophe in the UK and the government is doing nothing. I've seen some crazy stuff here over the last 12 years but this is next level.

> and the government is doing nothing. What do you think the government should do?

Do what the energy companies are suggesting - fix the cap at or about the current price. Establish a government backed fund that will ensure the continued operation of the energy companies. Accelerate the already underway efforts looking at realigning how the UK energy market works (that is - reduce and/or eliminate the link between gas and electricity pricing - due mainly to our over-reliance on CCGT generation). As energy wholescale costs fall over the coming years the energy companies re-pay the support costs.

It does mean we customers will endure higher energy costs for longer - but it will greatly soften the impact on the massive spikes we are set to see over the next 6+ months. It will also have the knock on effect of reducing inflationary pressures, making the need for rapid interest rate rises less likely, reducing borrowing costs.

Look again at what can be done to further enhance and accelerate investments in alternative energy production and storage. This includes looking at tackling planning regulations which so often tie up critical infrastructure projects in the UK for years (sometimes decades), too much nimbyism. Often by peeps who moved next to an existing facility (be it a windfarm, a nuclear plant, etc.) and then complain when it's suggested the plant be extended ... shocker ... who'd have thought that could happen! Invest in a massive, nation wide home insulation scheme - properly invest, not the silly little schemes they've tried so far. Which were badly thought out and badly implemented, and probably full of corruption and wastage.

At the same time continue (and back-date) the "windfall" tax on exploration and production - this wasn't "profit", this was "free money". The companies did not generate this income from improved working practices, efficiency drives, deployment of new technologies, etc. etc. - it was in nearly all senses a windfall. The oil majors are unlikely to invest it ("we don't even know what to do with all this income!" ...), and even if they did it will have absolutely no impact on the lives of UK citizens for years and years - the problem exists now, it needs a solution now.

The whole situation is made more infuriating given the UK produces 50% (+/-) of its own gas. But thanks to our exposure to the prevailing market and the ease of transport to the continent we are suffering as much (heck, more than) many other nations in Europe.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#126

Post by grnmamba »

trgn wrote: post #71
TrackerFF wrote: post #20

Hopefully the current energy crisis (in Europe) will further accelerate development in renewable energy. Seems much of Europe is still chained to LNG, and that demand is even wreaking havoc in countries which have been previously quite self-sustained, or really don't use LNG much themselves - with Norway being a good example.

Europe is going to come out strong out of this whole mess. The political unity so quickly after the start of the war was unexpected (and admirable). Ten years from now, Europeans will drive electric (if they'll drive at all), solar panels will be everywhere, and the continued flex-work-from-home revolution will have created an enormous amount of extra time for everybody. They'll be comfy in their sustainable homes an…

Given the current uncertainty that people will be able to heat their homes in the winter, the threat of widespread power outages, and the rising cost of living across the board: No, it won't come out stronger. Once the first blackout hits, support for economic sanctions against Russia will evaporate, and people will demand a return to their previous living standards. The idea of a green fantasyland without cars is fiction.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#127

Post by Goronmon »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #99
phantomathkg wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain why you think people is slacking, please?

I can’t say why. But work seems to have no “gravity”. Like in my brother’s government job, coming into office was a given. You could have serious career repercussions if you were slacking off. Then the lockdown happened and work moved online. Everyone was slacking off, including the managers. Now they’ve got in-office mandates again but some of the workers just don’t come in when they don’t fee like it and just log i…

It's funny that you haven't actually said that less work is getting done. It just sounds like you are saying that "working from home" is equivalent to "slacking off", even if you didn't intend it to come out that way.

Maybe people were always "slacking off" at their jobs, they just had to work harder to hide it when people were in the office?

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#128

Post by break_the_bank »

Latty wrote: post #98
mathverse wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the approach of "tax this and tax that" is that it often ends up hurting the lower and middle classes the most. I am very skeptical about any new taxes aiming for wealth distribution that are not very explicit about who should pay that tax.

Yes? That's why I was very specific about who should pay it. This is such a common response to any taxation. It is true that any solution done wrong can make things worse, but that's not a reason not to try and solve the problem, it's a reason to do it right. The alternative, not taxing anyone much, has been tried: it gets us here, with public services collapsing and the country becoming less and less desirable to ex…

Isn’t income over a certain number already taxed at 45%? How much higher are you proposing?

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#129

Post by robertlagrant »

mvc wrote: post #90
bko wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: >The investment bank predicted that the country’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year.... Nabarro said Citi’s new forecasts had taken account of a 25 per cent increase in wholesale gas prices last week and a 7 per cent rise in wholes…

> No price controls can account for the fact that energy prices are up a lot globally. Sure, but how would these energy companies fancy being under the thumb of Putin. If they want to benefit from the spoils of free markets with consumers who haven't died from covid then they must pay their fair share to maintain them. So whether it's a cap on the prices they can make, or a tax on their profits. Doesn't really matter…

All of that is still paid for by consumers, and we already tax profits. Where do you think the money (including the profit taxes) comes from? Consumer prices.

Re: UK inflation forecast to hit 18.6% next year, energy bills may rise to £6000

#130

Post by robertlagrant »

mattmanser wrote: post #55
mellosouls wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't happen with the bankers 10 years ago, I'm not sure that normal people have the inclination or fight.

Most UK cities had big occupy protests, we had one in my city in the UK for quite a while.

They collectively did far less to the financial industry than some people on the internet buying Gamestop.
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