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Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

stratechery.com

121–130 of 244 posts

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#121
post #92

The problem is current AI generation contain no creativity, they are trained from human made data set. And machine generated data set is also learnt from human data

I would argue that human creativity is also recombination of existing images/thoughts/experiences. There is no ghost in the machine who comes up with novel ideas that didn't exist before. Everything new is just a combination of old ideas combined in new ways.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#122

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

> By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. Doesn't seem all that different from 99% of media consumption thats existed in my lifetime.

From Edward R Murrow famous speech: This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and even it can inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise, it's nothing but wires and lights in a box. There is a great and perhaps decisive battle to be fought against ignorance, intolerance and indifference. This weapon of television could be useful.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#123

The Three Trends (according to the article): 1. Medium: text -> images -> video -> 3D graphics -> VR 2. AI: time -> rank -> recommend -> generate 3. UI: click -> scroll -> tap -> swipe -> autoplay By this definition, the end of the line is a totally passive consumption of endorphin-inducing pablum that blots out the real world. (I may be exaggerating a touch.) It might stop short of a wire into the pleasure centers o…

BeReal's growth is probably a good example of this kind of "organic" and "healthy" social media

Disclosure: I haven't used BeReal.

I fully expect BeReal's model to change in less than two years from now (probably within a year). I see it quickly devolving into tedium after a while. Users will disable notifications to post, become passive consumers. "Influencers" drive adoption of platforms and it's hard to be the same type of influencer unless you're constantly living that lifestyle, which almost no influencer today actually does.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#124
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I absolutely loathe YouTube Face. If you've never heard of the term, it's that exaggerated, wide-eyed, often with an open-mouth, expression on most thumbnails. I know that at some psychological level it works, probably because it hijacks the part of our brain that is meant to respond to when a fellow human being in front of us makes that expression - there must be something dangerous going on behind us and we need to…

The problem is that it's not clear (at least to me) whether adding the "Youtube face" is making people click on the videos more, or is it just making YouTube push the video to a wider audience resulting in higher engagement. Is there some way to assert "Given the same audience of X people, adding such thumbnails results in more clicks"?

It is pretty obvious as a creator. The analytics available encourage experimentation. You find that mentioning subscribing or making a more visually engaging thumbnail will significantly boost important metrics like CTR. CTR is a metric almost entirely dependent on thumbnail image, although title and description play small roles, and CTR is an incredibly important metric for getting the content served by the algorithm.

And it isn't entirely true that including a face mugging for the camera is always the most visually engaging (although representations of people are very attention grabbing). A person in the image is a character for a story, the whole "worth a thousand words" is true in that a whole narrative can be compressed into a single image and viewed with a glance. A person or other sentient being is a character for that story (I'm sure cat thumbnails do well too).

Just try to think of an interesting narrative involving exclusively inanimate objects. Kinda hard; the whole "animate" thing seems to be necessary to give a before, middle, and after to events (ok, maybe collisions, explosives, and rockets might work, they'd probably do well as thumbnails too). A thumb with Linus looking surprised or disappointed or puzzled gives a short and incomplete narrative about the object he is looking at and how it made him feel those emotions. Part of this is that watching the video will give you a more complete narrative.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#125

im afraid this short attention optimized dopamine manipulation system is going to be deterimental for our collective mental and cognitive capacity, especially with covid. in particular im fearful of the impact on young developing minds, this is literally setting them up for failure or maybe this is the end goal?

It already has. The ultimate expression of this dopamine mill is on-demand porn, and that's already run its course addicting practically the entire population and giving them sexual dysfunction. Social media is like "porn lite."

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of the evolution of the slot machine (as read in Matthew Crawford's The World Beyond Your Head ). A rough analog would be: 1. Medium: Mechanical reel > Digital reel 2. Gameplay: Fixed odds > Adjustable odds > Programmatic adaptive odds 3. Experience: Pull the lever and win or lose > Pull the lever and win even if you lose (e.g. get back change) > Swipe a card and win even if you lose > Swipe a card an…

Fantastic book. The stories about the slot machine players who wear black pants so that they can urinate without being noticed was shocking, to say the least. They are so addicted to the machines that they won't even get up to use the restroom. The phrase he used, "playing to extinction", very much reminds me of what's happening now across most entertainment categories, broadly speaking (autoplay, loot boxes, slot ma…

It isn't so much that they are addicted (though they are), but that someone will take their spot while they are up.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#127
post #120
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If/when VR becomes as easy as putting on a pair of sunglasses, then it won’t be much different from pulling your smartphone out of the pocket. Luckily, we’re probably decades away from that being feasible, on the technological front.

VR is by its nature immersive. Immersion is inherently at odds with quick and easily digestible. 3d video served by an AR sunglass display is plausible (but probably way overkill for the next decade), but feeling like you're in an entirely different environment while waiting in line at the post office is never going to be a thing people want.

I disagree that it’s that much different from people being immersed in their smartphones, not taking notice at all of their surroundings anymore. With a sunglasses-like solution, you probably would/could still see the actual surroundings in your peripheral vision, or via pass-through, similar to how you can still hear your surroundings through non-sealing earphones, or via pass-through for sealed ones.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#128

If you're an innovator and think along this trend, then you're fighting the fight in the trenches where Facebook and TikTok are already embedded and winning, and AI already promises to win the next round. For me, the question is where can there be a shift that causes the existing competition to become derailed altogether? And how can you help induce such a change, and ride the wave? For example, imagine a social shif…

Such shifts are more likely to happen due to legislation and lawsuits than people voluntarily opting out of using FB/TikTok. (Similar to how the Sackler family was responsible for the opioid crisis which was only brought under control by government action.)

> the opioid crisis which was only brought under control by government action

"Coming wave of opioid overdoses ‘will be worse than ever been before’" Source: https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2022/07/coming-wave-of...

I guess there's still work to be done if this is the government having things "under control."

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#129
post #127
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

VR is by its nature immersive. Immersion is inherently at odds with quick and easily digestible. 3d video served by an AR sunglass display is plausible (but probably way overkill for the next decade), but feeling like you're in an entirely different environment while waiting in line at the post office is never going to be a thing people want.

I disagree that it’s that much different from people being immersed in their smartphones, not taking notice at all of their surroundings anymore. With a sunglasses-like solution, you probably would/could still see the actual surroundings in your peripheral vision, or via pass-through, similar to how you can still hear your surroundings through non-sealing earphones, or via pass-through for sealed ones.

Very implausible imo, have you used VR before? Will never be safe to use in public spaces: what and who is around you is unpredictable, so only AR will be viable.

Re: Instagram, TikTok, and the Three Trends

#130
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The novel element is combining the passive medium with infinite content. In my circles, sitting slack-jawed in front of the TV for hours was something that only those with little mental energy or drive did[1]. By contrast, probably 75% have some non-trivial degree of slack-jawed passive social media consumption, even more so since IG and Tiktok. To wit, I think what's interesting about this Era of media relative to t…

Idk how people do this, its just so boring. I tried tiktok and the first 200-300 scrolls were interesting, but then its just people regurgitating the same comedy/meme. Sure you can find a niche subject you're into like cooking, but most topics do get kind of dry after a while. I do think I'm in a minority though and know quite a few who spend hours a day on tiktok/insta.

It's enjoyable for 20 minutes a day, especially when waiting on something.

The key things are:

1) time offline is on your side. you can saturate yourself with current trends that interest you pretty quickly. You need to allow actual real world time to pass for those trends to update.

2) scroll with purpose and intent. aggressively dismiss things that don't immediately get your attention from any unknown source. (Helps the algorithm actually cater to your interests)

3) tell the algorithm when you don't like something. There's usually a "don't show me content like this" option somewhere. I felt dramatic about it at first, but it's the only tool you have to keep the algorithm from incorrectly assuming you enjoyed the content when you did watch the entire thing (out of sheer curiosity / hope / general inaction).

I noticed I now get a lot of low profile things in my feed that are actually pretty cool and fit the medium nicely. Lots of trade work stuff, before / afters, machines doing stuff, stand up comedy bits, etc. Those personalized things do not have room to flourish if I am giving too many things a chance.

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