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Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

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Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#121
post #92
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are right, those are the bad incentives. And that is why there are legal and institutional and customary mechanisms in place to insulate central banks from political pressure, and by and large they seem to work well (maybe not in Argentina...) Even Trump didn't manage to sway Powell.

What? Trump got Powell not to raise rates in 2018 and 2019 when that would have been the perfect opportunity to.

Powell raised rates 4 times in 2018. Then, in 2019, the Fed became more dovish, but that was arguably justified by economics (inverted yield curve in spring of 2019).

More details than you ever wanted, from Bernanke's 21st Century Monetary Policy:

> At his swearing-in ceremony on February 5, 2018, Powell noted the importance of Fed independence—its “long-standing, nonpartisan tradition to make decisions objectively, based only on the best available evidence."

> On monetary policy, Powell soon made clear that, the president’s preferences notwithstanding, he planned to continue gradually moving toward a more neutral, or “normal,” policy stance. At his first meeting as chair, in March 2018, the FOMC voted unanimously to increase the target range for the federal funds rate by another quarter percentage point, to 1½–1¾ percent.

> In June [2018], the Committee raised the target range for the funds rate by another quarter percentage point [...]

> President Trump had praised Powell at the announcement of his nomination: “He’s strong. He’s committed. He’s smart.” And he remained silent on monetary policy through Powell’s first five and a half months. The honeymoon ended on July 19, 2018, when Trump, in a CNBC interview, said “I’m not thrilled” about the Fed’s interest-rate increases.

> [Trump's] public criticism of the Fed’s policy decisions would continue—a sharp break from the norm that, with few exceptions, had governed presidents after Nixon. Trump’s complaints also reversed his campaign-trail rhetoric that easy-money policies had created a “false” stock market.

> Powell’s strategy for dealing with Trump was multipronged. As he had at his swearing-in ceremony and, earlier, at the announcement of his nomination, he regularly and publicly emphasized that independence allows the Fed to make decisions in the public interest based on objective data and analysis and free of short-term political considerations.

> Consequently, the best policy, [Powell] concluded, was to continue Yellen’s policy of gradual rate increases, with close attention to economic developments and a willingness to adjust nimbly. As foreshadowed in Powell’s speech, the FOMC raised the target range for the funds rate again in September [2018], bringing it to 2–2¼ percent.

> On December 19, 2018, near the end of Powell’s first year as chair, the FOMC increased the federal funds rate target to 2¼–2½ percent. It was the ninth quarter-point increase since the tightening of policy had begun three years earlier under Yellen, and the fourth under Powell’s chairmanship.

> Four rate hikes in 2018, the promise of more in 2019, and the ongoing reduction in the balance sheet—which traders had dubbed “quantitative tightening”—added up to a significant prospective tightening, which seemed hard to justify when set against the agnostic stance that Powell had taken in Jackson Hole or the economic crosscurrents he cited at the press conference.

> In 2019, Powell and the rest of the FOMC navigated continued pressure from the president. They had to avoid “caving” to Trump’s demands but also not allow a desire to demonstrate independence to distort their decisions.

> On April 5 [2019], the president told reporters that the Fed should cut rates, and on April 30 he tweeted that the economy would “soar like a rocket” if the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by a full percentage point. “They [Fed officials] don’t have a clue,” he tweeted on June 11.

> It is hard to overstate how jarring Trump’s tactics were, particularly compared with his predecessors’ assiduous respect for Fed independence. Understanding the importance of not taking the bait, Fed officials responded to the inevitable press questions about the president’s tweets and comments through gritted teeth. For decades, presidential jawboning has not been an effective way to influence Fed policy, and it was not this time.

> At the press conference, Heather Long of the Washington Post asked Powell about Trump’s threat to demote him. He replied, “I think the law is clear that I have a four-year term [as chair], and I fully intend to serve it.”

> The foreshadowed rate cut, along with an early end to the runoff of the Fed’s balance sheet, came at the next meeting, at the end of July [2019].

> Despite the rate cut, the Fed’s first in a decade, Trump continued to assail the Fed chair. On August 14 he called Powell “clueless.” On August 19 he criticized Powell’s “horrendous lack of vision.”

> On September 11 [2019], [Trump] called on the Fed to “get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less,” labeling the FOMC, in a second tweet, “Boneheads.” At its September meeting the FOMC, as expected, cut the target range for the funds rate another quarter point, to 1¾–2 percent.

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

11. Due to extremely taxes and an extremely unfavorable official exchange rate, citizens hoard dollars illegally and it exacerbates their currency reserve problems. Note that 11 is really an issue of both government policy and the culture. Tax evasion is both a response to inflation and a result of a culture that doesn’t see an issue with putting private benefit over public good.

On the other hand, its antagonising to see such malfancioning of the state and keep feeding the machine with taxes

Yes, it’s a really a breakdown of civil society as a whole. Any individual person is going to through their hands up at the whole thing and go along with it because it appears there’s nothing to be done.

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto advocates on this forum frequently list Argentina as a specific use case ( ie getting around foreign currency rules/restrictions ), that would imply that the market doesn’t just happen in “Cuevas”

Exactly this. Thanks to cryptocurrencies we can avoid a lot of this madness

That’s one way to look at it.

Another way to look at it is that crypto is strengthening the dollar’s foothold in Argentina and weakening the state’s ability to manage their own currency, to extremely detrimental effects.

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#124

How does the "official" exchange rate work? The gov says the peso is worth way more than it really is, so can't you exploit that to get really cheap dollars? Do they only allow "one way" official exchanges, from dollars to pesos?

At present (or at the time of my last conversation about the situation with my mother-in-law), you can legally acquire 200 USD/month at the official rate. This is part of what's driving the black market rate higher. The "ideal" would be to go to a bank, get a large sum of dollars, and immediately arbitrage it at a changer in some market to double your money. At $200/month, that won't get you a lot right now.

Not everyone is allowed to acquire 200 USD per month; only people with legally declared jobs, which I think is less than half the population now. The government policy is that dollars are only for the rich.

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#125
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto advocates on this forum frequently list Argentina as a specific use case ( ie getting around foreign currency rules/restrictions ), that would imply that the market doesn’t just happen in “Cuevas”

I admit I'm not too familiar with the (illegal) crypto thing. I wouldn't be surprised if it was run by the same cuevas. In any case, the situation I describe is historic; the cuevas have existed for decades and nobody does anything about them. As for the size: again, major operations -- the kinds that actually "move the needle" -- are done in the legal market. I seriously doubt crypto has any impact in Argentina.

Realistically I think the biggest impact is that people are hoarding dollars in offshore accounts rather than converting their currency.

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#126
post #2

Why does Argentina always have such a volatile currency?

I lived for 20 years there. In my opinion the root of all problems there is that it is embedded in the culture to be as egoist as possible and to steal as much as you can from everyone else in the most ruthless and shameless possible way. People usually complain about the government being corrupt and stealing to the people. But most people are the same, at their own level. They will try to steal as much as they can a…

If you are an Argentinian developer working for a US company and want to do things the right way, you have to agree to a 55-70+% deduction from your gross income (adding taxes, fees from converting USD->ARS->USD which you can still do but who knows for how long, and so on)[0]. You could stay with ARS but with a projected annual inflation of 70% that doesn't sound too clever, plus you would automatically lose around 50% of the "real" value of your dollars.

Great! Now that your money is in the bank, pray for you don't fall into a bank run[1] and lose 65% of your savings[2]. The Central Bank still has reserves, but it doesn't look nice.

This applies to freelancing, but I can imagine most other areas work like this, with bureaucracy and pressure to SMBs working way right of the Laffer curve[3].

My point is, this is a negative feedback loop that (maybe?) started with the toxic vainglory of "outsmarting the system" but was fueled along the years with a general mistrust of banks/institutions, for good reasons. There are no incentives to do things correctly, and if some would appear it's likely set up for failure, because who says the next administration doesn't remove it and the show goes on?

Honestly, I don't know how (or if) it can be fixed at this point.

EDIT: Plus, it's really hard to see any of that tax revenue being put to good use. We're sitting at around 40-50% poverty.

[0] https://maxifirtman.medium.com/gu%C3%ADa-definitiva-para-cob... - second graph [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corralito [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corral%C3%B3n [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#127
post #119
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hard to assess economic stability because big crises are low-probability events, but it doesn't seem obvious to me that Bretton Woods US (01944–01971) was systematically less stable than the US after the switch to fiat money in 01971. Certainly it was far more economically prosperous; the change to a fiat currency coincides with a widely-remarked drop in the GDP growth rate and an even more dramatic growth of in…

I am suggesting you compare 1776-1971 vs 1971+ which is the opposite of cherry-picking. Ignoring all US history prior to 1944 is going to give you a very distorted view of what’s normal. Especially as Brenton Woods was a mixed system. The degree to which these differences are a function of various monetary systems is debatable, but it’s very hard to argue that fiat is worse on those timescales.

I don't think it's very hard to argue that fiat is worse on those timescales; few if any fiat money systems have ever survived for a period of 195 years, like 01776–01971, without succumbing to at least one episode of hyperinflation. These are localized but generally worse than the Great Depression. We have numerous examples going back to the Yuan Dynasty, including four already this century: North Korea, Turkey, Venezuela, and most notoriously, Zimbabwe.

You could of course argue that Turkey isn't the US: there are important differences between the countries. And that's true, and surely the differences are relevant to the risk of hyperinflation. But the US today isn't the US of 50 years ago, either — economically speaking, it has a lot less in common with the US of 01972 than with today's Turkey (PPP GDP US$37000 per capita).

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#128
post #2

Why does Argentina always have such a volatile currency?

I lived for 20 years there. In my opinion the root of all problems there is that it is embedded in the culture to be as egoist as possible and to steal as much as you can from everyone else in the most ruthless and shameless possible way. People usually complain about the government being corrupt and stealing to the people. But most people are the same, at their own level. They will try to steal as much as they can a…

Taxes in Argentina are insane. If you have a 1000 USD monthly salary you will be taxed in the same way as a billionaire: you have to pay a third of your income and 3% of your total wealth (that is, everything you own) each year. And you can't even deduct most debts from the 3% tax. And you get nothing in exchange, because all the money goes to the politicians' pockets and a welfare state that literally hands out money to millions of people who refuse to work

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#129
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" Due to many governmental economic measures, a deficit in the fiscal balance, and a large issue of local currency..." (From the article). Chronic lack of competent governance seems to be the culprit.

But this isn’t the first time. You’d think they’d learn their lessons. So something is amiss— perhaps they don’t have a choice? And if so, why?

Poor people want free money and will never learn any lesson. They just vote Peronism no matter what, because it's a religion to them

Re: Argentina’s black-market USD rate climbs 24% in two weeks

#130
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this isn’t the first time. You’d think they’d learn their lessons. So something is amiss— perhaps they don’t have a choice? And if so, why?

Sometimes there's an incentive for a government, or voter base, to not learn their lessons. Using US examples because those are the ones I'm most familiar with, just look at how long there's been a "housing crisis" due to insufficient housing in some US cities. There's been plenty of time to fix it, but policy changes just nibble at the edges. Why? Because some people don't want to fix it, or don't care, or there are…

Also known as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%22No_Way_to_Prevent_This%22,_...
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