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Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#121

Post by bakuninsbart »

yrgulation wrote: post #54
Spooky23 wrote: post #20

The whole Ukraine/Russia conflict underscores how poor the strategic position of Europe and the US is with respect to Europe. We’ve been phoning it in since the Clinton era and assuming that “norms” and oligarchs would keep Russia at bay. End of the day they got tanks, nukes and are learning what they can get away with.

No, most europe and the us told germany it relies too much on a single source of energy. Schroeder, Merkel, both were in bed with russia’s oil and gas tsars. Nord Stream’s ceo is a former stasi officer, ursula is corrupt and many many alternative pipelines have been pushed back in favour of we know who. Please dont mix everyone else in. As you can see some german commenters even admit to germany wanting to push for e…

Who in Europe isn't heavily affected by the gas shortage? How is this Germany's fault? To me it seems like a lot of the smaller/weaker countries in Europe just always need a scapegoat to blame when things get difficult.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#122

Post by bamboozled »

I love the absolute BS of the world in 2022.

The whole world is supposed to be off fossil fuels by now, and here we are hoping and praying Germany and the rest of the EU gets enough fossil fuels to burn this winter.

If humanity was to look at itself in the mirror, it would see an image stupid freaking hypocrite clown.

Solar, Nuclear, Wind, get after it, it's so late now it almost feels like a waste of time...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#123

Post by oxff »

akmarinov wrote: post #59
jonathan-adly wrote: post #25

There are solutions, just unpopular and require a political class that is not fickle and weak. Solution #1. Capitulate to Putin and treat Russia as a regional power that can gobble and punish its neighbors when they stray too far. Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants. Solution #3. Put the Euro printer in overdrive and pay whatever price needed for the littl…

Solution #1 - we already tried that, we gave Putin Crimea in 2014, everything was chill for 7-8 years and now we have this mess. If we give him Donetsk and Luhansk, he'll just be back for more + Moldova in 5-6 years.

How are you in charge of not giving or giving some East European watering holes to Russia? Can you establish the set of facts here.

I can tell that a real NATO deployment to D & L would dramatically change the strategic goal setting of Russia, materially alter the outcome, but not sanctions if that's what you are suggesting as deciding the fate of these places.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#124

Post by 1234letshaveatw »

Gravityloss wrote: post #23

Unfortunately Brunsbüttel terminal only finally got the go ahead in January 2022 and it will take 3.5 years to build. It's anyway a good alternative source. https://www.gem.wiki/Brunsb%C3%BCttel_LNG_Terminal Increasing insulation and installing and building more heat pumps are obvious ways to save on gas. Italy used some big EU subsidies to pay 100% of people's home and house renovations. Would something like that be…

my god- the EU redistributed tax revenue from member countries to fund 100% of home improvements in Italy? I can't even imagine.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#125

Post by tomputer »

Gas prices were already rising since 2020 but yes, the Ukraine/Russia conflict made it worse.

Below a graph from the Dutch TTF Gas Futures from the past 2 years. The contract price is in Euros and Euro cents per MWh.

https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...

Edit: those are just numbers on a screen but in real life that means the energy/gas bill increases between 5x - 10x if this continues.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#126

Post by sremani »

Germany wanted to have and eat it cake too. It worked to an extent during Merkel. They made European South pay the hefty price while humming on their exports using Cheap Russian gas/oil and supplying manufacturing components to china and finished goods to rest of Europe and America.

Russia is not some bit player in Oil and Natural gas industry, 5 million barrels per day ? That is a huge amount of hydrocarbons to replace. Of course, Europe will scramble to find alternatives and before they go cold, will fuck the Global South again from its limited supplies, it already started happening - Pakistan got its NG supplier broke contract and sold gas under contract to Europe.

Europe is going to get screwed but in an effort save its ass it will create a frenzy in global south that would tip many countries into absolute choas.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#128

Post by Juliate »

lazide wrote: post #107
Juliate wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point, EUR/USD parity is way less perceivable and concerning in our daily lives than the gas/energy that is coming full speed towards us (seen from France), which is driving a lot of first and second order prices (heating, transportation in general, food, construction).

With a lot of fuel and energy trades denominated in the dollar, and all fuel and energy trades in competition with one of the largest economies which happens to be dollar denominated, these are not separate issues. The ‘stronger’ (relatively) the dollar, the more expensive energy will be in every other currency.

Yes, but the USD is not the driving factor. It's a coefficient, for sure.

I mean, yes, it's very concerning.

But what's even more concerning is the perspective of the consequences on the next few years. We'll perhaps get a difficult winter and social/political troubles because of that, yes.

But on the balance is: the current Russia powers overcoming this and succeeding to establish something completely different in Europe through war.

Plus the incertitude as to USA's support, provided that we now know they may as well elect something as disastrous as Trump in 2 years time.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#129

Post by intrasight »

iso1631 wrote: post #35
polotics wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

moralistic foreign policy as in not paying a country that sent its goons rape children? also putin said, lavrov said: we won't invade...

Yes. Western countries have dealt with and enriched nasty reigimes one way or another for centuries

If you're timescale is centuries, then the reverse has also been true.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#130

Post by killjoywashere »

nisa wrote: post #81
listless wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question here - I swear I'm not trolling and I've been asking myself this same question...' Would you be fine with it if you were on the margin? I have this same attitude about inflation in the US and rising interest rates. Good - we need to get the situation under control. But I'm not living on the margin. It affects me, but not really. I'll be fine. So I don't really have any skin in the game here. Not yet.

I am on the margin. So is my family. I'm getting by fine at the moment but I'm just a little above the poverty line but have no reserves. I have no choice anyway. I just hope that if I can't pay the bills there will be a moratorium to cut energy for a while. I'm trying to buildup a reserve for a few months exactly for that situation. It's also not clear when the price hikes will hit the consumers so I hope I have a f…

A large-scale theme in humanity that usually goes unnoticed is how much more the poor are willing accept privations and duties in the name of patriotism. They are also more charitable on a per-cent basis, and certainly on a marginal per-cent basis.
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