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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#121

Post by corrral »

vkou wrote: post #78
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

It's not irresponsible to bid 20% over asking. Asking is deliberately underpriced, because it is excellent advertising in a hot RE market. It's irresponsible to bid 20% over what the house is worth (which has nothing to do with asking price), just because you got emotionally attached to the house, and started a bidding war with another person emotionally attached to the house.

It's not "emotionally attached", it's that it's been impossible to buy a house for a while if you're not willing to pay more than it will appraise for. You'll repeatedly lose to buyers who will do that, with cash offers to boot.

This has been true even in many cities that aren't trendy, and have been building housing like crazy for a decade.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#122

Post by lostmsu »

bombcar wrote: post #85
bushbaba wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...or housing will drop as interest rates go up. And a non insignificant number of folks were over extended in leverage. I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation. I know of folks who bought homes using margin loans in their stock portfolio. If housing stagnates, there will be margin calls, leading to supply shock, and pri…

Margin loans for house purchases isn't as insane as it might sound - assuming your financials are there. Margin interest is deductible against investment gains, house interest may not be for many earners. But not refinancing afterwards into a low fixed rate may come back to bite them, and soon.

Margin rates are also lower, and you don't have to pay the principal.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#123

Post by JamesBarney »

rubidium wrote: post #9
freeqaz wrote: post #6

A lot of these companies have very reasonable P/E ratios now. Microsoft is sitting at around 27, Apple 25, and Facebook 15. None of those strike me as "inflated". Those are normal values for the stock market (20-25). Are investors just panicking?

Don’t rising interest rates put a downward pressure on p/e as growth (often) requires capital thus loans?

They do, but the biggest way this happens is investors shifting their asset allocations into bonds. So if bonds pay 10% per year a company with a p/e of 30 looks less attractive than if bonds pay 3% per year.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#124

Post by Robotbeat »

gonzo41 wrote: post #92
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…

The money can find a productive outlet, it’s just that for the last 5 years or so, speculative investments (that weren’t productive) had a much higher rate of return. Which is too bad as the productive investments like building a solar power plant really benefitted from the low interest rates that drove the non-productive speculative bubble.

non-productive Speculative investments tend to get punished at the end of the cycle by losing all value, thus punishing those invested in it and restoring order. But that often only happens when you increase interest rates above that which productive investments like solar power plants often need. And so you get contraction as even the productive investments are starved of funding. Oh well, at least the solar power plant hasn’t lost all its value.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#125

Post by BbzzbB »

lumost wrote: post #7
avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

Yes, you need some level of financial creativity to justify buying into one of the many bubbles. But that's where the timeless Buffett quote[0] on Ted Williams and batting comes in, there's no called strikes in securities markets. Mr. Market doesn't force you to do anything at all, we're all free to ignore the speculation and focus on proper cash flowing businesses at reasonable valuations. The more boring the better (tho there are opportunities even with exciting companies these days), but just wait for the right pitch, no need to force it. You'd need a gun to my head if you wanted me to hold a portfolio of cash burning (even generating for that matter) businesses with valuations based on 5-10 year outlooks.

0: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0Mw8hCzQ1I

>The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!,’ ignore them.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#126

Post by gonzo41 »

api wrote: post #114
gonzo41 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…

Central banks have one hammer really: interest rates. Everything is a nail.

QE as well.

I just don't see why they can't put conditions on some of their lending to focus the intent of the money.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#128

Post by chinchilla2020 »

avgDev wrote: post #2

I work for non-tech generating 100million+ in revenue. Cushy job, fully remote, good pay and full autonomy with flexible hours working as an IC. I recently talked to a startup, similar pay, culture would be a better fit since it was mostly techies and I'm a nerd by nature.....but things just got awkward as soon as I asked about their revenue....they were bleeding money and I was told they were being acquired by a big…

Management people have built careers and fortunes in tech running sinking companies.

Even within FAANG, many people build careers while working on sinking products (Most products in Google are revenue negative...)

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#129

Post by Robotbeat »

api wrote: post #114
gonzo41 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is also a central banking fail in so far that there's that much liquidity in the market that can't find a productive outlet. There's a lot of money, but also not enough concentrated in one spot to do really useful ventures like large infrastructure projects. So instead the money is distorting everything. Imagine if lending was less cheap for home owners but it was still cheap for governments or really large comp…

Central banks have one hammer really: interest rates. Everything is a nail.

Right. It’s really up to businesses and governments. Businesses to make productive investments and governments to make the appropriate counter-cyclical investments (beyond just interest rates) to keep the productive investments more attractive than the non-productive speculative ones for businesses.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#130

Post by prohobo »

cercatrova wrote: post #95
prohobo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm saying that he was already neck deep in bad investments, which he happily funded. That's the main point I'm talking about. I'm not saying my idea deserved investment, just that this whole industry has been full of bullshit for years.

Maybe you think the investments he made are bad, but obviously he doesn't think so. However, you think your company is good enough to pitch to him to get investment, and he doesn't think so. There's nothing wrong with either side, it's just a difference of opinion. That doesn't necessarily make the "entire industry [...] full of bullshit."

But, it is full of bullshit. Just because it happens to align with my ego doesn't mean I'm wrong to say it. I would say the same thing even if I did get funded.
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