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The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

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Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#121

Post by PolygonSheep »

I remember being in grade school while this was happening and a girl was explaining to me how it worked, that such-and-such Beanie Baby was being "retired" and only a few thousand of each one was made. I just didn't get it. Why wouldn't they make more? I mean it's not like we're going to run out of polyester and plastic pellets anytime soon. Not to mention the company itself doesn't benefit if they appreciate on the used market. Why would they leave all that money on the table by deliberately making less than people wanted?

There were also rumors going around that the whole thing - production of all Beanie Babies - was going to end in the year 2000 which actually turned out to be very briefly true before it wasn't anymore.

As an adult I was smart enough to miss cryptocurrency 10 years ago because I thought it sounded like Flooz.com or Beenz. Magic internet money you can earn by solving sudokus? Who the hell wants that? I then missed NFTs (won't they just right click?) and now I'm too scared to get in for fear I will end up as the bag holder.

I'm probably going to end up learning the wrong lesson from this and throw fifty bucks into every crazy-sounding scheme I come across from now on in hopes one of them will hit it big. But that's not so different from venture capital. Just on a smaller scale.

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#122

Post by [deleted] »

a_shovel wrote: post #117
nouveaux wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cryptocurrencies are beanie babies: Once available for a trifle, their value has ballooned based on speculation. But that already happened, you missed out on it, and it has no bearing on their future prospects. And if a bunch of people ever feel the need to cash out at once, they'll find out just how much value they really have when there's nobody buying. Can you describe the situation where nobody is buying? Peopl…

The criminal buyers' plan is to buy bitcoin, maybe shuffle it around a bit to hide their tracks, and sell it as soon as they can. They don't want crypto, they want cash, and they need buyers to get that cash. That goes for everyone, in fact. The only way criminals are different is that they don't want higher prices, they want high volume , so they can sell it fast without losing too much. A unit of cryptocurrency is…

[deleted]

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#123

Post by RikNieu »

a_shovel wrote: post #63

This leads to a pretty interesting comparison between plain cryptocurrencies and NFTs. Cryptocurrencies are beanie babies: Once available for a trifle, their value has ballooned based on speculation. But that already happened, you missed out on it, and it has no bearing on their future prospects. And if a bunch of people ever feel the need to cash out at once, they'll find out just how much value they really have whe…

I explored this idea last year in a blog post

https://www.riknieu.com/nfts-are-the-new-beanie-babies/

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#124

Post by stjohnswarts »

ska wrote: post #73
michaelt wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought housing was a bubble in 2005. But the prices keep on going up.

In many places there was a pretty serious correction in 2008, no? Bubble doesn't mean "pops and value goes to zero". It means something more like overvalued asset class that can lose value rapidly. If there is intrinsic value, it won't got to zero. Nobody imagines that of a real estate market outside scenarios that include major wars, etc. House prices with any sort of scarcity are largely driven by peoples ability t…

Yep, I got my house at almost 30% off it's new price and now it is worth 4x what I paid for it in 2009

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#125

Post by MerelyMortal »

terran57 wrote: post #82

My ex-wife and I divorced in 1999 during the height of the craze. She was an avid Beanie Baby collector and I gladly let her have the entire collection in exchange for a quicker divorce.

Thank goodness you didn't end up like this ex-couple, forever memorialized on the internet:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/beanie-baby-fever-in-1999_n_5...

(Article is about picture of two divorcees dividing a Beanie Baby collection on the courtroom floor in front of the judge.)

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#126

Post by boyka »

Cd00d wrote: post #29
adam_arthur wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, bubbles can surely happen even in the era of widespread information. Look no further than housing. A few points on housing: - real home prices have now surpassed the 2000s peak - household formation and population growth has been decelerating, while building has been accelerating. - there are 1.1 homes per household, same as the year 2000. We are not at historically low supply as some claim. Only low in terms of…

Sorry, I think I'm not following. I think you're saying that housing prices are too high. Then you're saying that if inflation continues housing prices will drop? I totally get that most home sales are based on the monthly mortgage bill, so when interest rates are high, house prices are lower. But, if we have 7% inflation why wouldn't rates increase AND prices increase? I don' think the outcome is obvious when high i…

Prices will stay high as long as buyers are not paying out of pocket. Once they have to pay more out of pocket with rising mortgage rates, they will notice that they weren't able to afford it in the first place and people will need to get rid of what they can't afford to keep paying.

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#127

Post by nly »

Cd00d wrote: post #29
adam_arthur wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh, bubbles can surely happen even in the era of widespread information. Look no further than housing. A few points on housing: - real home prices have now surpassed the 2000s peak - household formation and population growth has been decelerating, while building has been accelerating. - there are 1.1 homes per household, same as the year 2000. We are not at historically low supply as some claim. Only low in terms of…

Sorry, I think I'm not following. I think you're saying that housing prices are too high. Then you're saying that if inflation continues housing prices will drop? I totally get that most home sales are based on the monthly mortgage bill, so when interest rates are high, house prices are lower. But, if we have 7% inflation why wouldn't rates increase AND prices increase? I don' think the outcome is obvious when high i…

I don't know about the US but the next move in the UK is to deregulate lending criteria. Allowing more people to borrow 5-6x income with tiny deposits.

People have always over extended themselves here to buy property.

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#129

Post by bena »

samatman wrote: post #57
bena wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the difference between Beanie Babies and Pokemon/Magic cards is that trading cards hold some sort of utility outside of existence. There's a game behind the cards. And certain cards increase your chances of winning.

This is an ex ante explanation, because it doesn't apply to (canceled) stamps, which are valuable and have been for a couple centuries.

Well, yes. I was speaking to those items specifically. I don't think those cards are worth anything without the game.

Not everything stems from the same reason.

Re: The Beanie Baby Bubble of '99

#130

Post by xnx »

adam_arthur wrote: post #39
brightstep wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who just sold their home and is currently renting while waiting for a correction, I definitely want this to be true. Why are you confident those factors, absent a rate intervention, will produce a correction?

If inflation persists rising mortgage rates will push affordability to record lows. We're already close If inflation abates quickly, then current prices can maintain and become the new normal. The rate shock will price out pretty much every primary buyer. Investors will stop buying and even sell if they fear it's a peak. On top of this, huge amount of backlogged supply is about to come into market in a big way in sou…

Why wouldn't housing prices drop if the mortgage rate increased and keep affordability about the same?
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