Every time I think about the Antikythera mechanism the quote by Arthur C. Clarke comes to mind "If the insight of the Greeks had matched their ingenuity…we would not merely be puttering around on the Moon, we would have reached the nearer stars." It's a little sensational but also makes me think of what could've been, if certain paths had been realized in past times, and also makes me put the technical knowledge of p…
This realization hit me after spending a few weeks in Italy seeing the remains of the Roman Empire. I had a building sense that they were awfully close to the industrial revolution, that there was no particular reason it couldn’t have happened thousands of years ago in the face of a highly organized, long lived, innovative empire with enormous resources. I think it’s an accident of history that it happened in England…
Priority was given to running an empire, which didn't require too much mechanical ingenuity, just political ingenuity.
> It is inconceivable for us to imagine a rapid regression today To the contrary, I'm finding it increasingly likely that I will see the collapse of civilization within my lifetime, and I'm 57. I see two prospective tipping points on the horizon: the collapse of democracy in the U.S. leading to nuclear war, and climate change leading to world-wide food shortages. The former seems likely within 5-10 years, and the lat…
Havent you noticed that people who see dark future post and tell it more often the past 30 years, than people who think "it will all be just fine"? I remember the late 90s doom and "oh no millenium 2000" gloom predictions, and 2012 nostradamus end of the world maya calendar the end is near. I read about the 80s cold war "will go hot nuclear any time" and can be seen in movies like Terminator. US will not collapse, no…
I was pretty optimistic in 1990, but since then there is new data. Donald Trump was elected president and led a violent insurrection against the government based on a transparent lie with, so far, no negative consequences. If he runs in 2024 he will win the Republican nomination. Unless the Democrats suspend the filibuster to pass voting rights legislation, he will almost certainly be elected president again (because measures are being put in place at the state level to insure that the election is not "stolen" from him again). And I've seen the effects of climate change with my own eyes. The changes are happening with breathtaking speed. The climate where I live is already dramatically different today than it was when I moved here a mere 11 years ago. All of the data from the last 30 years is dramatically worse than the worst-case projections of 1990. Absent some really dramatic technological or political breakthrough, it is a question of when, not if, climate change destroys civilization. It might be longer than 30 years out (I certainly hope so), but it's not 100 years out, not any more.
I’m wondering if anyone has created a software model of the mechanism. Is anyone aware of such a project? It sounds right up the alley of many HN readers.
More than a decade ago, Diomidis Spinellis created an implementation running on the OLPC, written in Squeak:
I would like nothing better than to lose that bet, but I don't think my wife would approve. How about a bottle of your favorite scotch? (Which may well cost $1M 30 years from now.)
Pretty sure it was a joke since if it does collapse he wouldn't have to pay anyway.
You need to re-read the GP comment. He was betting that civilization would not collapse.
I live a 10' min walking distance from the museum the mechanism is displayed. Reading this makes me a bit ashamed for not spending hours just looking at it.
I went to that museum last summer and I spent 90% of my visit at exhibits related to it. It's super cool, and well-presented, IMO.
This detailed description and his musings make me further convinced that if high quality clear glass technology had been created at this time, human history and discovery could have been profoundly different. Eyeglasses, telescopes, and microscopes would have allowed the Greeks to take discovery to the next level.
Surely that’s an oversimplification, but I always wonder.
What were the main factors that prevented the roman empire from having an industrial revolution? Is there a single technology, that if sent back in time, would have sustained their empire? (Steam engine? Hydropower improvements? Standardized measurements for tighter tolerances?)
I've seen the argument made that the major factor was slavery. In general, they had a cheap source of unskilled labor. Major advances in industrialization were often driven, in no small part, by high labor costs.
The British Empire too had relied on slavery until well into the nineteenth century. By which time the Industrial Revolution was already underway.
What were the main factors that prevented the roman empire from having an industrial revolution? Is there a single technology, that if sent back in time, would have sustained their empire? (Steam engine? Hydropower improvements? Standardized measurements for tighter tolerances?)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution#Requirem... I found this a fascinating read. Below that section is a list of technological developments.
Interesting.
"natural resources such as [...] waterfalls"?
Is this a typo? Or is it talking about small waterfalls for hydro power?
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Which of those six factors was the roman empire lacking? I feel like they could have had all six, but I don't know much about roman history.
The Antikythera mechanism gives me nightmares. Just as the suggestion that a lack of transmissions from intelligent life means the existence of a great filter. The Antikythera mechanism is a strong indicator of technological regression in human beings. Perhaps more terrifying is the fact that it is not the first time we've regressed or collapsed. The mysterious Late Bronze Age Collapse is another example, https://en.…
> It is inconceivable for us to imagine a rapid regression today To the contrary, I'm finding it increasingly likely that I will see the collapse of civilization within my lifetime, and I'm 57. I see two prospective tipping points on the horizon: the collapse of democracy in the U.S. leading to nuclear war, and climate change leading to world-wide food shortages. The former seems likely within 5-10 years, and the lat…
I don't think people have put enough stock in the possibility that the Antikythera device was primarily used for astrology. This would likely have been the primary reason an ancient person would want to know the positions of the stars and planets on a specific date and time.